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Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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131 AWUS01 KWNH 110302 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110800- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0858 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1101 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Southwest U.S. Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 110300Z - 110800Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to persist for a few more hours across portions of the Southwest U.S. Some additional pockets of flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...The evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows scattered to broken coverage of showers and thunderstorms continuing across areas of especially western and northern AZ and into areas of south-central to southeast UT and southwest CO. Despite increasing low-level CINH with the loss of daytime heating and convective overturning, SBCAPE values remain as high as 2000 to 2500+ J/kg across areas of western AZ and locally across south-central to southeast UT. Multiple colliding outflow boundaries coupled with the remaining instability and localized orographics should continue to favor the ongoing convection lingering for another few hours before gradually weakening. PWs across the region are rather high given the depth of monsoonal moisture pooled around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge near the Four Corners region, and are locally on the order of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal. Some very cold-topped convective cells continue to evolve, and the rainfall rates with these remaining stronger storms may still reach 1 to 2 inches/hour. Slow cell-motions and interaction with the terrain locally may yield some additional totals that reach 2 to 2.5 inches. Some additional instances of flash flooding will be possible, and especially over any of the sensitive slot canyons and localized burn scar locations. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF... ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38180783 37120736 35660961 34461061 33461199 33081396 33681506 34901512 36021459 37211307 37981053