301
AWUS01 KWNH 130601
FFGMPD
KSZ000-131200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0873
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Areas affected...Much of Central and Western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130600Z - 131200Z

SUMMARY...Organizing clusters of showers and thunderstorms
overnight will produce heavy rainfall totals across much of
central and western KS. Some isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows organizing clusters
of strong convection growing upscale across western KS as
shortwave energy ejects east out of eastern CO and interacts with
an unstable and very moist/convergent southerly low-level jet of
30 to 40 kts.

The latest RAP analysis shows MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg
aligned generally west to east across southern KS and in close
proximity to a stationary front draped along the KS/OK border.
Strong warm air advection and resulting isentropic ascent ahead of
the eastward-advancing shortwave energy will combine with the
transport of elevated instability over the front to foster a
well-organized axis of convection heading through the overnight
hours.

The convection should gradually advance down across central KS in
the 06Z to 12Z time frame and be capable of producing rainfall
rates of 1.5 to 2 inches/hour. The PWs are locally over 1.75
inches, and these values are 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above
normal which will help yield more efficient rainfall processes for
heavier rainfall rates.

Some occasional instances of cell-training and cell-mergers may
occur overnight, and the 00Z HREF guidance suggests that some
rainfall totals may reach as high as 3 to 5 inches as a result.
NASA SPoRT and USGS streamflow data reflect dry antecedent
conditions across the region, but the 00Z HREF does show some 40
to 70 percent probabilities of seeing the 3-hour FFG values
exceeded across portions of central KS.

Therefore, some isolated to widely scattered instances of flash
flooding will be possible overnight as these clusters of strong
convection and heavy rainfall moves off to the east.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39549782 39219612 38599543 37689573 37489710
            37539890 37610018 38000125 38630162 39220108
            39529931