405
AWUS01 KWNH 041902
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0587
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Texas Triangle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041900Z - 050000Z

SUMMARY...Unstable air downstream of persistent MCC will have
solid moisture flux allowing for intense localized 2-3"/hr rates
and possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic shows mature MCV has stalled in the
vicinity of San Saba/Mills county but is also starting to stretch
southwest to northeast.  Dense central dense mid to upper-level
cloud cover has resulted in a strong differential heating boundary
along the NE to eastern side of the canopy with MLCAPEs building
over 2000 J/kg (with greater values within the confluent boundary
along the distant eastern side toward Houston/Galveston Bay.
However, VWP shows solid 20-30kt weakly veered southerly flow
across the Heart of Texas within the core of enhanced deep layer
moisture with total PWats of 2.25" nearing 2.5".  Currently, the
DPVA from the inner core of the MCV shifting northeast though the
mid-level elongation has started to break out stronger
thunderstorms along that differential heating boundary.

The flux convergence will support highly efficient rainfall
production with 2-3"/hr rates. However, deep layer flow and
southeastward inflow will support eastward propagation as cells
move in the north to northeast steering flow.  This steering flow
is semi-confluent to suggest some merging/training but the
propagation vectors of 15kts to the southeast, may reduce
prolonged duration.  Still spots of 2-4" are probable and given
FFG values are higher/less compromised to the east; incidents of
flash flooding are considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32479764 32429670 32169626 31699591 31079582
            30519613 30059697 30029792 30509806 31379830
            31949849