379
FXUS64 KMOB 141121
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
621 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Local drops to
MVFR levels possible between 19z and 02z near the coast with
isolated to scattered shra/tsra possible. A seabreeze developing
along the coast in the afternoon will shift general northerly winds
around 5 knots to south to southwesterly around 10 knots closer to
the coast as it moves inland.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 503 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

An upper level ridge has moved over the northern Gulf coast, and is
expected to weaken a bit into the coming week. A surface ridge over
the Gulf has become better organized, increasing moisture levels to
over 2" forecast area-wide, well above seasonal norms of 1.7" to
1.85". Even with the strong upper subsidence from the upper ridge,
the increasing moisture levels will bring above seasonal rain
chances. Guidance is advertising PoPs in the scattered to numerous
range today and Monday. Am still expecting the upper subsidence to
delay convection firing until the afternoon over land areas,
allowing temperatures to rise to above seasonal norms. The current
radar loop shows convection forming over the northern Gulf, and am
expecting this to continue late tonight into Monday morning. With
very good low level instability, weak wind shear and several
boundaries showing on radar, waterspouts are a possiblity this
morning. A few of the daytime storms may become strong to marginally
severe this afternoon, with MLCapes rising to around 2500J/kg and
DCapes in the 600-800J/kg range in the guidance. Also, with the high
moisture levels, the thunderstorms will be efficient rainers, with
local ponding of water possible in poor drainage areas.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected along and
north of I-10, low to mid 90s south to the coast. Add in the high
moisture levels, heat indices are expected to top out above heat
advisory levels ( >= 108F ). Today have issued an advisory for most
of the forecast area except for the northeastern quarter of the
forecast area. Will likely need the same for Monday, though a slight
downtick in temperatures may shift the advisory area south to the
southern half of the forecast area. Not to forget, low temperatures
tonight are expected to drop to a bit above seasonal norms, low to
mid 70s from the I-10 corridor north, mid 70s to near 80 south to
the coast.

A Low Risk of rip currents is expected into the coming week, even as
the tidal range increases. Lack of significant swell is the reason.
/16

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Upper level high pressure ridge continues over the area Monday night
through Tuesday night. The upper ridging weakens and gets shifted
off to the east of our area Wednesday through Saturday as a deepening
upper trough develops over the eastern CONUS. Scattered to
locally numerous (at times) showers and storms will be possible
Tuesday, then mostly numerous showers and storms expected
Wednesday through Saturday. The diurnal convective pattern will
continue with most of the activity being mainly in the afternoon
and early evening hours for most of the area, but some coastal
showers will be possible late nights and early morning hours as
well. Daily rain chances will be highest Wednesday through
Saturday as the upper troughing develops and subtle shortwaves
periodically swing across the region along the base of the
trough. In addition, during the latter half of the period, surface
high pressure will weaken and slide off to the east of our area
and a weak frontal boundary will likely settle into the interior
portions of MS and AL, providing an additional low level focus in
conjunction with the afternoon heating and the sea breeze
circulation. Heat issues will likely continue to be the most
impactful Tuesday and Wednesday, but could be influenced somewhat
by clouds and precipitation. Still some areas could see afternoon
heat indices upwards of 110 degrees each of those days, at least
for a brief time. Heat Advisories will probably be required for at
least portions of the forecast area. Daytime highs Tuesday and
Wednesday will likely climb into the mid and upper 90s across
most of the area. With the best rain chances coming in the
Thursday through Saturday period, increased cloud cover should
limit heat indices below Advisory levels for those days, but it
will still be hot with highs generally in the upper 80s and lower
90s for most locations. Nighttime lows through the period will
range from the low to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s to lower 80s
along the coast. Depending on just how far the surface front
mentioned earlier sags into our area, a few locations along and
north of Highway 84 could potentially see overnight lows in the
upper 60s Thursday night and Friday night. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 503 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A general westerly component to winds are expected through
the forecast, with a daytime onshore component, nighttime offshore
component developing. Magnitude is expected to remain generally
light. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>053-059-060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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