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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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935 FXUS64 KMOB 112349 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 649 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds tonight will become a light northerly wind for Monday. Winds over coastal counties may turn southerly to southwesterly during the afternoon due to the seabreeze boundary. /96 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A dry airmass over the forecast area (with precipitable h20 values around 1.5" ) will see some modification, initially later this afternoon into tonight as onshore flow initially along the Al/Fl coast as a seabreeze develops and moves inland this afternoon. More moisture moves over the forecast area from the west tonight through Monday as onshore flow over the Tx/La coast moves moisture inland, which then moves east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley to the Southeast (and the forecast area). By Monday evening, guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values rising to around 1.6"-1.8". An upper ridge builds east over the Southeast, helping to limit any chance of rain over most of the forecast area, though. A slight chance is still possible well south of the coast, over the more unstable airmass over the open Gulf. The upper ridge will help keep daytime temperatures at or above seasonal norms for today and Monday. Temperatures topping out in the low 90s north of Highway 84 and along the coast mid to upper 90s are expected this afternoon, with an uptick to general mid to upper 90s for Monday. Heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s are expected today and Monday due to the limited moisture, so am not anticipating a Heat Advisory for either day. Tonight, with the dry air over the area allowing for good radiational cooling, temperatures closer to seasonal norms or even below seasonal norms are expected. Temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 60s are expected north of Highway 84, around 70 to low 70s south to along I-10 with upper 70s along the coast. With light winds over the Gulf, the risk of rip currents remains low through the week. /16 SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Hot and dry conditions continue to prevail across the forecast area with only isolated to locally scattered shower and thunderstorm potential each afternoon. Best chances will remain primarily nearer the coast in the vicinity of the sea-breeze boundary and perhaps better chances into late week as upper troughing begins to build and amplify into the eastern CONUS. In the mean time, broad upper troughing prevails across the eastern US, with weak upper ridging remaining over the Gulf coast states putting the forecast area underneath northwest flow aloft. This ridging gradually slides east through Thursday before weakening into Friday and Saturday. As the ridge builds in through Thursday, temperatures will warm up quite a bit. High temperatures will be hot (around 4 to 8 degrees above normal), reaching the upper 90`s to near 100 each day. By Friday into the weekend, temperatures "cool" to the middle to upper 90`s for most locations. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the lower 70s inland and middle/upper 70`s near the coast. Low temperatures thereafter will be around 4 to 8 degrees above normal, and should only be in the middle to upper 70`s for all of the forecast area by Tuesday night through Friday night. Locations along the coast may never make it out of the lower 80`s for lows some nights. As temperatures heat up mid to late week, heat advisories will likely once again be needed, particularly Tuesday through the remainder of the week. Depending on if we can keep higher dewpoints during the afternoon hours we may meet excessive heat warning criteria of 113+ heat indices Thursday/Friday/Saturday, primarily across coastal counties. Heat index values on any given day will likely be in the 105 to 110 range, with locally higher up to 110 to 115 nearer the coast the latter part of the week. A Low risk of rip currents remains through the extended period. MM/25 /22 MARINE... Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will bring a general westerly flow through the midweek. A daytime seabreeze/night-time land breeze will bring a northwest/southwest shifting in direction. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly along and south of the coast. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 97 76 98 77 99 77 99 / 0 10 0 20 0 30 10 30 Pensacola 76 96 79 97 79 98 79 96 / 0 10 0 20 10 30 20 30 Destin 77 93 80 95 80 96 80 94 / 0 10 0 10 10 30 20 30 Evergreen 69 97 73 98 74 98 75 97 / 0 10 0 10 0 20 10 30 Waynesboro 69 97 73 99 74 99 75 99 / 0 10 0 10 0 20 10 30 Camden 68 93 71 96 74 95 74 96 / 0 10 0 0 0 20 10 30 Crestview 70 98 74 99 75 99 75 97 / 0 10 0 20 0 30 10 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob