849
FXUS64 KMOB 112050
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
350 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

A dry airmass over the forecast area (with precipitable h20 values
around 1.5" ) will see some modification, initially later this
afternoon into tonight as onshore flow initially along the Al/Fl
coast as a seabreeze develops and moves inland this afternoon.
More moisture moves over the forecast area from the west tonight
through Monday as onshore flow over the Tx/La coast moves moisture
inland, which then moves east over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley to the Southeast (and the forecast area). By Monday
evening, guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values rising to
around 1.6"-1.8". An upper ridge builds east over the Southeast,
helping to limit any chance of rain over most of the forecast
area, though. A slight chance is still possible well south of the
coast, over the more unstable airmass over the open Gulf.

The upper ridge will help keep daytime temperatures at or above
seasonal norms for today and Monday. Temperatures topping out in
the low 90s north of Highway 84 and along the coast mid to upper
90s are expected this afternoon, with an uptick to general mid to
upper 90s for Monday. Heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s
are expected today and Monday due to the limited moisture, so am
not anticipating a Heat Advisory for either day. Tonight, with the
dry air over the area allowing for good radiational cooling,
temperatures closer to seasonal norms or even below seasonal norms
are expected. Temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 60s
are expected north of Highway 84, around 70 to low 70s south to
along I-10 with upper 70s along the coast.

With light winds over the Gulf, the risk of rip currents remains
low through the week. /16

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Hot and dry conditions continue to prevail across the forecast
area with only isolated to locally scattered shower and
thunderstorm potential each afternoon. Best chances will remain
primarily nearer the coast in the vicinity of the sea-breeze
boundary and perhaps better chances into late week as upper
troughing begins to build and amplify into the eastern CONUS. In
the mean time, broad upper troughing prevails across the eastern
US, with weak upper ridging remaining over the Gulf coast states
putting the forecast area underneath northwest flow aloft. This
ridging gradually slides east through Thursday before weakening
into Friday and Saturday. As the ridge builds in through Thursday,
temperatures will warm up quite a bit. High temperatures will be
hot (around 4 to 8 degrees above normal), reaching the upper 90`s
to near 100 each day. By Friday into the weekend, temperatures
"cool" to the middle to upper 90`s for most locations. Low
temperatures Monday night will be in the lower 70s inland and
middle/upper 70`s near the coast. Low temperatures thereafter will
be around 4 to 8 degrees above normal, and should only be in the
middle to upper 70`s for all of the forecast area by Tuesday night
through Friday night. Locations along the coast may never make it
out of the lower 80`s for lows some nights. As temperatures heat
up mid to late week, heat advisories will likely once again be
needed, particularly Tuesday through the remainder of the week.
Depending on if we can keep higher dewpoints during the afternoon
hours we may meet excessive heat warning criteria of 113+ heat
indices Thursday/Friday/Saturday, primarily across coastal
counties. Heat index values on any given day will likely be in the
105 to 110 range, with locally higher up to 110 to 115 nearer the
coast the latter part of the week. A Low risk of rip currents
remains through the extended period. MM/25 /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will bring a
general westerly flow through the midweek. A daytime
seabreeze/night-time land breeze will bring a northwest/southwest
shifting in direction. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected, mainly along and south of the coast.
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  97  76  98  77  99  77  99 /   0  10   0  20   0  30  10  30
Pensacola   76  96  79  97  79  98  79  96 /   0  10   0  20  10  30  20  30
Destin      77  93  80  95  80  96  80  94 /   0  10   0  10  10  30  20  30
Evergreen   69  97  73  98  74  98  75  97 /   0  10   0  10   0  20  10  30
Waynesboro  69  97  73  99  74  99  75  99 /   0  10   0  10   0  20  10  30
Camden      68  93  71  96  74  95  74  96 /   0  10   0   0   0  20  10  30
Crestview   70  98  74  99  75  99  75  97 /   0  10   0  20   0  30  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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