569
FXUS64 KMOB 291743
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1243 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

An upper level shortwave system has settled over the eastern
Southeast, with another over the Caribbean along with an active
upper pattern over the northern half of the Conus. All this upper
energy comes together into the coming week, organizing a mean upper
trough over the eastern Conus, with a bit deeper upper low over the
Gulf. In combination with a very moist airmass over the Gulf and
Southeast, the forecast area and nearby enters into a wet pattern,
with scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms into
Tuesday. This convection is expected to form south of the coast
overnight, then shift inland during the day. Instability is modest
for this time of the year (MLCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range, with
DCapes dropping into the 200-500J/kg range) through this period,
limiting the chances of strong to severe storms. The wet airmass
along with modest instability will allow the expected convection to
be efficient rainers. Weak deep layer winds will limit storm
movement, allowing localized very heavy rains to cause localized
water issues, mainly over our coastal counties and nearby.

Tuesday night through Wednesday, a strong upper level shortwave
system moves into the eastern mean upper trough. A weak cold front
moves south over the Southeast in response, with a significantly
drier airmass behind. An upper ridge builds north over the Plains
mid week, shifting itself and the eastern upper trough east
through the end of the week. Shortwave energy at the base of the
eastern upper trough pinches off, forming an upper circulation off
the Florida Atlantic coast. PoPs drop through the end of the week
into the weekend in response.

The wet pattern Sunday through Tuesday will drop high temperatures
to below seasonal norms. Upper 80s to low 90s today will drop into
the mid to upper 80s for Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures rise
through the end of the week as the upper ridge approaches, rising
into the low to mid 90s by the weekend. Heat indices topping out in
the upper 90s to low 100s today drop into the mid 90s to around 100
for Monday and Tuesday. Heat indices then rise through the end of
the week, though the drier airmass will temper the rise. 100-107
degree heat indices are expected by Saturday. Low temperatures are
expected to see a more steady day to day curve, with low to mid 70s
expected over and north of I-10, mid 70s to near 80 expected over
areas south of I-10 to the coast.

A larger tidal cycle will work with a modest onshore swell to bring
a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents to area beaches the beginning of the
week. The Rip Risk drops to a Low Risk the latter half of the week
as the tidal cycle decreases and the onshore swell drops.

Looking well outside of the Southeast, TD2 has formed over the Bay
of Campeche, and is expected to move northwest over Mexico, well
southwest of the forecast area. No effects are expected from this
storm at this time. /16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop throughout the afternoon, with coverage decreasing during
the evening hours. Expect brief reductions in visibility and
ceilings in some of the heavier activity, and a few stronger
storms could produce gusty, erratic winds. Outside of storms,
southwesterly winds at around 5 to 10 knots will become light and
variable tonight. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  86  73  87  72  91  71  93 /  50  80  50  80  50  50  30  30
Pensacola   75  85  75  87  75  90  75  93 /  70  90  60  80  50  50  30  30
Destin      77  85  76  87  77  89  77  92 /  70  90  70  80  60  50  40  30
Evergreen   71  87  72  88  71  91  69  93 /  50  90  30  80  30  40  10  20
Waynesboro  72  87  72  90  71  92  67  94 /  50  80  30  70  30  20  10  10
Camden      71  87  72  87  72  90  69  92 /  50  80  30  80  30  30  10  10
Crestview   71  86  72  88  72  91  70  95 /  50  90  50  90  40  60  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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