325
FXUS64 KMOB 131739
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1237 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast.
Isolated to scattered showers west of I-65 could lead to temporary
reductions in ceilings and visibilities this afternoon. Winds will
remain light and variable. BB/03

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Mostly dry weather conditions prevail through Wednesday
with only the immediate coastal counties and southeastern
Mississippi seeing any isolated showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Best chances for storms will be today as a plume of 2"
PWATs overspreads southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama.
With residual dry air aloft it would not be surprising to see some
stronger wind gusts in any thunderstorm downbursts, however these
should remain sub-severe. Outside of the storms, the heat is on with
highs topping out in the upper 90`s to near 100 for most locations
this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Likewise with the
gradually increasing moisture content, afternoon mixing will be a
little less robust than prior days helping to keep surface dewpoints
a bit higher across southeastern Mississippi into southwestern
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This will set the stage for the
return of the heat advisories as afternoon heat indices soar into
the 108 to 112 range today and Wednesday. Another heat advisory will
be needed Wednesday for the same areas, perhaps expanding a tier or
two of counties inland. A LOW risk of rip currents remains through
Wednesday. MM/25

..EXTENDED TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The strong upper level ridging will persist through the remainder
of the week before breaking down over the weekend as an
anonymously strong upper trough digs across the eastern United
States. Hot and increasingly humid conditions should develop
through the end of the week. Deep moisture over the western Gulf
Coast into the Arklatex will advect eastward which should help to
gradually increase chances for showers and thunderstorms with a
typical land and sea breeze cycle on Thursday. So most of the
storms should be confined offshore and along the immediate coast
Thursday morning and gradually spread inland by afternoon with the
inland penetrating sea breeze. The sea breeze should not advance
too much north of I-10 as coastal water temperatures are near 90
degrees. Temperatures will still remain hot on Thursday with high
temperatures reaching into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees
across most areas, except middle 90s along the immediate coast. As
the sea breeze advects moister low level humidity into coastal
areas during the afternoon, the combination of high heat and
humidity may be sufficient again for heat advisory conditions.

By Friday, the begins to retrograde west as an upper trough digs
across the Middle Mississippi Valley. This trough combined with
deep moisture and ample daytime instability should support the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms areawide.
Temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 90s but with
increasing humidity, heat indices will may again exceed heat
advisory criteria mainly along the coast and across southeast
Mississippi.

Ensemble guidance continues in good agreement for the weekend with
the upper trough amplifying east of the Mississippi River. In
fact, nearly all of the guidance is suggesting mid level heights
will likely be two standard deviations below the mean across the
Midwest, eastern Tennessee Valley, into the Mid Atlantic States
through the weekend and early part of next week. This places our
area firmly beneath unseasonably strong northwesterly flow aloft.
This synoptic pattern favors the development of mesoscale
convective systems moving from northwest to southeast across our
forecast area. There may be enough deep layer shear and plenty of
instability to support episodic severe convective winds with any
well formed bowing lines both Saturday through Sunday. We will
continue to monitor this potential over the next few days and
provide additional details as the pattern evolves. This pattern
may also support the potential for some much needed rainfall
across our area, which has been increasingly dry lately. The only
limiting factor may be the dry and increasing drought conditions
as of late. This could result in lower moisture levels than would
normally occur in this type of pattern regime. This will be
monitored over the next few days to see how things develop.

Hot temperatures and higher humidity can be expected to continue
through the weekend outside of thunderstorm activity. Therefore,
there may be a continuation of high heat indices approaching or
exceeding heat advisory criteria through the weekend, with the
only potential relief coming in the form of convective activity.
/JLH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  99  78  97  78  95  77  95 /  10  20  10  30  20  50  20  50
Pensacola   79  96  77  97  79  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  40  20  50  20  50
Destin      80  93  80  95  79  93  80  92 /  10  20  10  30  30  40  20  40
Evergreen   72  98  72  98  74  96  73  94 /  10  10   0  20  10  40  20  40
Waynesboro  74 100  73  99  74  96  74  96 /  10  20  10  20  10  50  20  50
Camden      72  97  72  96  74  96  73  93 /   0  10   0  20  10  40  20  50
Crestview   75 100  74  98  74  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  40  20  50  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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