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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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325 FXUS64 KMOB 131739 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1237 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast. Isolated to scattered showers west of I-65 could lead to temporary reductions in ceilings and visibilities this afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable. BB/03 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Mostly dry weather conditions prevail through Wednesday with only the immediate coastal counties and southeastern Mississippi seeing any isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Best chances for storms will be today as a plume of 2" PWATs overspreads southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama. With residual dry air aloft it would not be surprising to see some stronger wind gusts in any thunderstorm downbursts, however these should remain sub-severe. Outside of the storms, the heat is on with highs topping out in the upper 90`s to near 100 for most locations this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Likewise with the gradually increasing moisture content, afternoon mixing will be a little less robust than prior days helping to keep surface dewpoints a bit higher across southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This will set the stage for the return of the heat advisories as afternoon heat indices soar into the 108 to 112 range today and Wednesday. Another heat advisory will be needed Wednesday for the same areas, perhaps expanding a tier or two of counties inland. A LOW risk of rip currents remains through Wednesday. MM/25 ..EXTENDED TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The strong upper level ridging will persist through the remainder of the week before breaking down over the weekend as an anonymously strong upper trough digs across the eastern United States. Hot and increasingly humid conditions should develop through the end of the week. Deep moisture over the western Gulf Coast into the Arklatex will advect eastward which should help to gradually increase chances for showers and thunderstorms with a typical land and sea breeze cycle on Thursday. So most of the storms should be confined offshore and along the immediate coast Thursday morning and gradually spread inland by afternoon with the inland penetrating sea breeze. The sea breeze should not advance too much north of I-10 as coastal water temperatures are near 90 degrees. Temperatures will still remain hot on Thursday with high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across most areas, except middle 90s along the immediate coast. As the sea breeze advects moister low level humidity into coastal areas during the afternoon, the combination of high heat and humidity may be sufficient again for heat advisory conditions. By Friday, the begins to retrograde west as an upper trough digs across the Middle Mississippi Valley. This trough combined with deep moisture and ample daytime instability should support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms areawide. Temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 90s but with increasing humidity, heat indices will may again exceed heat advisory criteria mainly along the coast and across southeast Mississippi. Ensemble guidance continues in good agreement for the weekend with the upper trough amplifying east of the Mississippi River. In fact, nearly all of the guidance is suggesting mid level heights will likely be two standard deviations below the mean across the Midwest, eastern Tennessee Valley, into the Mid Atlantic States through the weekend and early part of next week. This places our area firmly beneath unseasonably strong northwesterly flow aloft. This synoptic pattern favors the development of mesoscale convective systems moving from northwest to southeast across our forecast area. There may be enough deep layer shear and plenty of instability to support episodic severe convective winds with any well formed bowing lines both Saturday through Sunday. We will continue to monitor this potential over the next few days and provide additional details as the pattern evolves. This pattern may also support the potential for some much needed rainfall across our area, which has been increasingly dry lately. The only limiting factor may be the dry and increasing drought conditions as of late. This could result in lower moisture levels than would normally occur in this type of pattern regime. This will be monitored over the next few days to see how things develop. Hot temperatures and higher humidity can be expected to continue through the weekend outside of thunderstorm activity. Therefore, there may be a continuation of high heat indices approaching or exceeding heat advisory criteria through the weekend, with the only potential relief coming in the form of convective activity. /JLH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 99 78 97 78 95 77 95 / 10 20 10 30 20 50 20 50 Pensacola 79 96 77 97 79 94 78 94 / 10 20 10 40 20 50 20 50 Destin 80 93 80 95 79 93 80 92 / 10 20 10 30 30 40 20 40 Evergreen 72 98 72 98 74 96 73 94 / 10 10 0 20 10 40 20 40 Waynesboro 74 100 73 99 74 96 74 96 / 10 20 10 20 10 50 20 50 Camden 72 97 72 96 74 96 73 93 / 0 10 0 20 10 40 20 50 Crestview 75 100 74 98 74 96 75 95 / 10 20 10 40 20 50 20 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob