850
FXUS64 KMOB 132343
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

General VFR conditions were noted across the forecast area at 23z,
with a few thunderstorms containing MVFR conditions over the
western Florida Panhandle. These few storms will decrease in
coverage into the evening hours, with general VFR conditions
thereafter. Shower and thunderstorm development is likely near
the coast towards sunrise, bringing local mid level MVFR
conditions. More convection is expected in the afternoon, mainly
over the western half of the forecast area. Local drops to low end
MVFR conditions are possible in the stronger storms. General VFR
conditions expected otherwise.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Hot and dry conditions continue as upper level ridging continues
to move into the area. Upper troughing over the eastern US will
slowly lift northeast as high pressure builds into the deep south.
This will allow for dry northwesterly flow to push in tonight into
Wednesday. With lower PWATS moving into the area, do not expect
much in the form of rain tomorrow. The heat will continue to be
the main topic of conversation with minimal cloud cover and strong
subsidence from the upper ridge. High temperatures will once again
climb to near record highs. The only thing keeping more widespread
heat issues is the low moisture quality leading to lower heat
indices with respect to the air temp. Nonetheless, if you thought
it was hot today then tomorrow will be no different. As a result
we have issued another heat advisory for the same areas as we had
today.

BB/03

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The strong upper level ridging will persist through the remainder of
the week before breaking down over the weekend as an anonymously
strong upper trough digs across the eastern United States. Hot and
increasingly humid conditions should develop through the end of the
week. Deep moisture over the western Gulf Coast into the Arklatex
will advect eastward which should help to gradually increase chances
for showers and thunderstorms with a typical land and sea breeze
cycle on Thursday. So most of the storms should be confined offshore
and along the immediate coast Thursday morning and gradually spread
inland by afternoon with the inland penetrating sea breeze. The sea
breeze should not advance too much north of I-10 as coastal water
temperatures are near 90 degrees. Temperatures will still remain hot
on Thursday with high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees across most areas, except middle 90s along the
immediate coast. As the sea breeze advects moister low level
humidity into coastal areas during the afternoon, the combination of
high heat and humidity may be sufficient again for heat advisory
conditions.

By Friday, the begins to retrograde west as an upper trough digs
across the Middle Mississippi Valley. This trough combined with deep
moisture and ample daytime instability should support the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms areawide.
Temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 90s but with
increasing humidity, heat indices will may again exceed heat
advisory criteria mainly along the coast and across southeast
Mississippi.

Ensemble guidance continues in good agreement for the weekend with
the upper trough amplifying east of the Mississippi River. In fact,
nearly all of the guidance is suggesting mid level heights will
likely be two standard deviations below the mean across the Midwest,
eastern Tennessee Valley, into the Mid Atlantic States through the
weekend and early part of next week. This places our area firmly
beneath unseasonably strong northwesterly flow aloft. This synoptic
pattern favors the development of mesoscale convective systems
moving from northwest to southeast across our forecast area. There
may be enough deep layer shear and plenty of instability to support
episodic severe convective winds with any well formed bowing lines
both Saturday through Sunday. We will continue to monitor this
potential over the next few days and provide additional details as
the pattern evolves. This pattern may also support the potential for
some much needed rainfall across our area, which has been
increasingly dry lately. The only limiting factor may be the dry and
increasing drought conditions as of late. This could result in lower
moisture levels than would normally occur in this type of pattern
regime. This will be monitored over the next few days to see how
things develop.

Hot temperatures and higher humidity can be expected to continue
through the weekend outside of thunderstorm activity. Therefore,
there may be a continuation of high heat indices approaching or
exceeding heat advisory criteria through the weekend, with the only
potential relief coming in the form of convective activity. /JLH
/22

MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

A typical diurnal pattern will remain with the sea breeze keeping
winds more southerly during the day and land breeze keeping winds
more northerly at night. A more persistent light southerly flow
will become established by late week into the weekend. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will remain possible along and south
of the coast each day. No impacts are expected. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ052-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201>204.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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