![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
850 FXUS64 KMOB 132343 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 643 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 General VFR conditions were noted across the forecast area at 23z, with a few thunderstorms containing MVFR conditions over the western Florida Panhandle. These few storms will decrease in coverage into the evening hours, with general VFR conditions thereafter. Shower and thunderstorm development is likely near the coast towards sunrise, bringing local mid level MVFR conditions. More convection is expected in the afternoon, mainly over the western half of the forecast area. Local drops to low end MVFR conditions are possible in the stronger storms. General VFR conditions expected otherwise. /16 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Hot and dry conditions continue as upper level ridging continues to move into the area. Upper troughing over the eastern US will slowly lift northeast as high pressure builds into the deep south. This will allow for dry northwesterly flow to push in tonight into Wednesday. With lower PWATS moving into the area, do not expect much in the form of rain tomorrow. The heat will continue to be the main topic of conversation with minimal cloud cover and strong subsidence from the upper ridge. High temperatures will once again climb to near record highs. The only thing keeping more widespread heat issues is the low moisture quality leading to lower heat indices with respect to the air temp. Nonetheless, if you thought it was hot today then tomorrow will be no different. As a result we have issued another heat advisory for the same areas as we had today. BB/03 .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The strong upper level ridging will persist through the remainder of the week before breaking down over the weekend as an anonymously strong upper trough digs across the eastern United States. Hot and increasingly humid conditions should develop through the end of the week. Deep moisture over the western Gulf Coast into the Arklatex will advect eastward which should help to gradually increase chances for showers and thunderstorms with a typical land and sea breeze cycle on Thursday. So most of the storms should be confined offshore and along the immediate coast Thursday morning and gradually spread inland by afternoon with the inland penetrating sea breeze. The sea breeze should not advance too much north of I-10 as coastal water temperatures are near 90 degrees. Temperatures will still remain hot on Thursday with high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across most areas, except middle 90s along the immediate coast. As the sea breeze advects moister low level humidity into coastal areas during the afternoon, the combination of high heat and humidity may be sufficient again for heat advisory conditions. By Friday, the begins to retrograde west as an upper trough digs across the Middle Mississippi Valley. This trough combined with deep moisture and ample daytime instability should support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms areawide. Temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 90s but with increasing humidity, heat indices will may again exceed heat advisory criteria mainly along the coast and across southeast Mississippi. Ensemble guidance continues in good agreement for the weekend with the upper trough amplifying east of the Mississippi River. In fact, nearly all of the guidance is suggesting mid level heights will likely be two standard deviations below the mean across the Midwest, eastern Tennessee Valley, into the Mid Atlantic States through the weekend and early part of next week. This places our area firmly beneath unseasonably strong northwesterly flow aloft. This synoptic pattern favors the development of mesoscale convective systems moving from northwest to southeast across our forecast area. There may be enough deep layer shear and plenty of instability to support episodic severe convective winds with any well formed bowing lines both Saturday through Sunday. We will continue to monitor this potential over the next few days and provide additional details as the pattern evolves. This pattern may also support the potential for some much needed rainfall across our area, which has been increasingly dry lately. The only limiting factor may be the dry and increasing drought conditions as of late. This could result in lower moisture levels than would normally occur in this type of pattern regime. This will be monitored over the next few days to see how things develop. Hot temperatures and higher humidity can be expected to continue through the weekend outside of thunderstorm activity. Therefore, there may be a continuation of high heat indices approaching or exceeding heat advisory criteria through the weekend, with the only potential relief coming in the form of convective activity. /JLH /22 MARINE... Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 A typical diurnal pattern will remain with the sea breeze keeping winds more southerly during the day and land breeze keeping winds more northerly at night. A more persistent light southerly flow will become established by late week into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible along and south of the coast each day. No impacts are expected. BB/03 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ052- 261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201>204. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob