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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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191 FXUS64 KMOB 140831 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 331 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Hot and dry weather conditions prevail outside of isolated showers and storms across southeastern Mississippi into coastal Alabama and the Florida panhandle during the afternoon hours each day. Upper ridging remains dominant over the forecast area, gradually beginning to weaken as we move through Thursday into Thursday night. Expect near record high temperatures once again today, with highs reaching the upper 90`s to near 100 once again. With dewpoints hovering in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s during the afternoon hours, heat index values will rise to the 105 to 110 range for southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle. Given this, another heat advisory will be in effect today from 10am through 7pm for those areas. Thursday looks like a rinse and repeat of today, so expect similar temperatures, rain chances, and heat indices. Another heat advisory will likely be needed for much of the same areas Thursday. A low risk of rip currents remains in place through Thursday night. MM/25 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Upper level ridging will persist through Friday across the northern Gulf Coast with sufficient moisture in place across the area to support the typical diurnal convective pattern for this time of year. Scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore and near the immediate coast Friday morning in association with the overnight land breeze will gradually transition inland as a seabreeze develops and help to spark additional showers and storms from late morning through afternoon across the coastal counties and further inland along outflow boundaries. Temperatures will remain hot in the mid to upper 90s with increased humidity values supporting heat indices once again at or above 108 degrees. This will likely result in the continuation of the heat advisory. The upper ridge is expected to break down over the weekend as an anomalously deep upper trough approaching two standard deviations below the mean digs across the eastern United States. This will place our forecast area beneath northwesterly flow aloft with lowered mid level heights and increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms. This pattern favors the development of a series of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) that should progress across the area through the weekend. Timing individual MCS`s is always difficult this far out in time, therefore there may be adjustments to timing of the greatest pops. Temperatures should still remain hot with high humidity expected. High temperatures should still reach into the middle to potentially upper 90s with lows in the 70s. Therefore, heat indices may continue at or above 108 degrees in areas prior to convective activity and heat advisories may need to be extended in time. There is lower confidence in the temperature forecast this weekend as it will be dependent upon storm timing. Mid level northwesterly flow may be strong enough (30kt+) to support semi-organized lines of storms with a potential for strong to potentially damaging wind gusts with any MCS that can become sufficiently organized. We will refine the forecast regarding any severe weather threat as the overall pattern becomes better defined. There remains greater uncertainty into early next week as model guidance diverges on the eventual placement of a cold front. This will be dependent upon how deep the upper trough digs. There remains two distinct scenarios at this point. The first scenario supports a more amplified trough axis as supported by the latest EPS ensemble guidance. This would increase the potential for a frontal passage across our area with much drier conditions and lower convective potential. An alternative scenario, as depicted by the latest GEFs ensemble guidance, is a bit less amplified and slightly further east with the trough and would favor a stalling frontal boundary over our area. This would support maintaining the deeper moisture and a focus for convective development and lead to higher pops. It still remains a bit too soon to favor one scenario over the other, so have maintained lower pops near the coast for now and will likely refine pops further as the trough evolution becomes more certain. Regardless, temperatures will remain hot with highs in the middle to upper 90s and lows in the 60s or 70s, which is dependent upon the frontal boundary location. Also humidity values and potential for heat advisory conditions will also depend on the frontal position. /JLH && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A typical diurnal pattern will remain across the marine area with the sea breeze keeping winds more southerly during the day and land breeze keeping winds more northerly at night. A more persistent light southerly flow will become established by late week into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible along and south of the coast each day. No impacts are expected outside of locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 99 77 97 76 95 76 95 74 / 30 20 50 20 50 20 50 30 Pensacola 98 80 95 79 93 78 94 77 / 30 20 50 30 50 20 50 30 Destin 97 82 94 80 90 78 90 78 / 20 20 50 30 40 20 40 30 Evergreen 99 75 97 74 95 73 96 72 / 20 10 30 10 30 10 50 30 Waynesboro 100 76 99 74 97 73 97 72 / 30 20 30 10 50 10 50 20 Camden 96 75 96 74 95 73 96 72 / 20 10 20 10 40 10 50 30 Crestview 100 76 97 75 96 73 96 73 / 20 10 50 20 40 10 50 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob