191
FXUS64 KMOB 140831
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
331 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Hot and dry weather conditions prevail outside of isolated
showers and storms across southeastern Mississippi into coastal
Alabama and the Florida panhandle during the afternoon hours each
day. Upper ridging remains dominant over the forecast area,
gradually beginning to weaken as we move through Thursday into
Thursday night. Expect near record high temperatures once again
today, with highs reaching the upper 90`s to near 100 once again.
With dewpoints hovering in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s during the
afternoon hours, heat index values will rise to the 105 to 110
range for southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama into the
western Florida Panhandle. Given this, another heat advisory will
be in effect today from 10am through 7pm for those areas. Thursday
looks like a rinse and repeat of today, so expect similar
temperatures, rain chances, and heat indices. Another heat
advisory will likely be needed for much of the same areas
Thursday. A low risk of rip currents remains in place through
Thursday night. MM/25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Upper level ridging will persist through Friday across the
northern Gulf Coast with sufficient moisture in place across the
area to support the typical diurnal convective pattern for this
time of year. Scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore and
near the immediate coast Friday morning in association with the
overnight land breeze will gradually transition inland as a
seabreeze develops and help to spark additional showers and storms
from late morning through afternoon across the coastal counties
and further inland along outflow boundaries. Temperatures will
remain hot in the mid to upper 90s with increased humidity values
supporting heat indices once again at or above 108 degrees. This
will likely result in the continuation of the heat advisory.

The upper ridge is expected to break down over the weekend as an
anomalously deep upper trough approaching two standard deviations
below the mean digs across the eastern United States. This will
place our forecast area beneath northwesterly flow aloft with
lowered mid level heights and increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. This pattern favors the development of a series of
mesoscale convective systems (MCS) that should progress across the
area through the weekend. Timing individual MCS`s is always
difficult this far out in time, therefore there may be adjustments
to timing of the greatest pops. Temperatures should still remain
hot with high humidity expected. High temperatures should still
reach into the middle to potentially upper 90s with lows in the
70s. Therefore, heat indices may continue at or above 108 degrees
in areas prior to convective activity and heat advisories may need
to be extended in time. There is lower confidence in the
temperature forecast this weekend as it will be dependent upon
storm timing.

Mid level northwesterly flow may be strong enough (30kt+) to
support semi-organized lines of storms with a potential for
strong to potentially damaging wind gusts with any MCS that can
become sufficiently organized. We will refine the forecast regarding
any severe weather threat as the overall pattern becomes better
defined.

There remains greater uncertainty into early next week as model
guidance diverges on the eventual placement of a cold front. This
will be dependent upon how deep the upper trough digs. There
remains two distinct scenarios at this point. The first scenario
supports a more amplified trough axis as supported by the latest EPS
ensemble guidance. This would increase the potential for a frontal
passage across our area with much drier conditions and lower
convective potential. An alternative scenario, as depicted by the
latest GEFs ensemble guidance, is a bit less amplified and
slightly further east with the trough and would favor a stalling
frontal boundary over our area. This would support maintaining the
deeper moisture and a focus for convective development and lead to
higher pops. It still remains a bit too soon to favor one scenario
over the other, so have maintained lower pops near the coast for
now and will likely refine pops further as the trough evolution
becomes more certain. Regardless, temperatures will remain hot
with highs in the middle to upper 90s and lows in the 60s or 70s,
which is dependent upon the frontal boundary location. Also
humidity values and potential for heat advisory conditions will
also depend on the frontal position. /JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A typical diurnal pattern will remain across the marine area with
the sea breeze keeping winds more southerly during the day and land
breeze keeping winds more northerly at night. A more persistent
light southerly flow will become established by late week into the
weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain
possible along and south of the coast each day. No impacts are
expected outside of locally higher winds and seas near
thunderstorms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      99  77  97  76  95  76  95  74 /  30  20  50  20  50  20  50  30
Pensacola   98  80  95  79  93  78  94  77 /  30  20  50  30  50  20  50  30
Destin      97  82  94  80  90  78  90  78 /  20  20  50  30  40  20  40  30
Evergreen   99  75  97  74  95  73  96  72 /  20  10  30  10  30  10  50  30
Waynesboro 100  76  99  74  97  73  97  72 /  30  20  30  10  50  10  50  20
Camden      96  75  96  74  95  73  96  72 /  20  10  20  10  40  10  50  30
Crestview  100  76  97  75  96  73  96  73 /  20  10  50  20  40  10  50  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ052-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>204.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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