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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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161 FXUS64 KMOB 150903 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 403 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tonight) Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Clear and calm conditions persist across the area early this morning, with relatively mild temperatures expected for the predawn hours. Upper ridging will generally remain in place through the near term period, retreating just a bit to the west today. This will keep temps from climbing into the triple digits like we observed yesterday. That said, though the air temperature may not be as hot as yesterday, humid conditions will continue and heat indices will climb into the triple digits once again this afternoon. Weaknesses in the ridge, combined with an abundance of moisture, will enhance any diurnally driven thunderstorms that are able to initiate along the seabreeze and any lingering surface boundaries. Coverage will be scattered and any storms that are able to develop will produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Similar conditions are expected for tonight, as high pressure maintains its hold on the weather pattern. Temperatures will be mild once again during the overnight hours, with clearing skies and temps falling into the lower 70s across our northern areas to the upper 70s along the coast. /73 && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The upper ridge will begin to weaken on Friday as a closed upper low deepens over the Great Lakes and drifts southward. Highs will climb into the lower to mid 90s once again Friday afternoon, though slightly lower dewpoints will keep heat index values lower. HREF probabilities of heat indices reaching 108 are less than 10%, so will hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Friday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible once again on Friday afternoon, with higher coverage along the coast. Forecast soundings show slightly more dry air aloft tomorrow, with gusty winds possible. Any lingering thunderstorms tomorrow evening will quickly diminish by sunset. This will leave another mild night on tap to start the weekend, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. The aforementioned closed low will slowly move southward through the day on Saturday, with the ridge retreating to the west. The forecast area will be on the eastern fringe of the ridge and the southern periphery of the trough, with northwest flow aloft. Diurnally driven thunderstorms will develop once again on Saturday , with perhaps slightly higher coverage along our northern area. These may linger into the evening hours as the trough amplifies, though a lack of surface forcing will limit the coverage during the overnight period and storms should diminish by midnight. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler Saturday night, with lows in the lower to mid 70s once again. /73 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 An anomalously deep upper-level trough for this time of year is expected to dig into the Southeast US during the first half of the period. In fact, model guidance across the board (deterministic runs and ensembles alike) have been trending stronger with this trough over the past few runs and are in rather good agreement that the base of this trough may reach as far south as the Florida Panhandle. As this trough digs in, deep northwesterly flow aloft will set up across the forecast area for the entire period. The trough, although remaining in place through midweek, will start to weaken by Tuesday and Wednesday. Looking at the surface, the digging trough will help to send a frontal boundary into our area Sunday night into Monday. With the upper trough trending stronger, guidance is now suggesting that the front may pass cleanly through our area, potentially stalling over the northern/central Gulf. If this solution pans out, then a much drier airmass will push into the region for Monday through Wednesday (more about this later). Sunday will likely feel hotter and be more active in comparison to the remainder of the long term. Prior to the arrival of the front, deep moisture will still be in place, with PWATs around 1.8 to 2.1 inches. This, paired with strong instability and forcing induced by diffluence aloft out ahead of the upper trough and surface convergence due to the approaching front, will result in the development of scattered showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours. One thing we will need to watch is that as the upper trough moves into our area, deep-layer shear will also be on the increase (0-6km shear around 25 to 35 knots). This may help to support the organization of multicellular clusters or an MCS along/ahead of the surface boundary. Given the strong instability in place (CAPE values over 2000 J/kg and DCAPEs over 1200 J/kg), any bowing segment within this MCS could be capable of producing gusty to damaging winds. We will continue to monitor trends over the coming days. Otherwise, with highs generally in the mid 90s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s, another Heat Advisory may become necessary for portions of the area, prior to the arrival of storms. Rain chances quickly decrease Sunday night as the front pushes through the area. For the remainder of the week, a much drier airmass advects into the area from the north as a large high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region. PWATs look to plummet to around 0.75 to 1.0 inches, which, climatologically speaking, is around the 10th percentile for our area for this time of year. Dew points also follow suit.. possibly dropping into the low to mid 60s for most spots. Although highs look to remain in the mid 90s, the lower dew points should help to keep heat indices in check. Lows have also been trending a bit cooler given the drier airmass in place. Lows for Monday and Tuesday nights look to range from the mid to upper 60s to around 70 degrees for locations along and north of the I-10 corridor, to the low 70s along the coast. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A light offshore flow will become southerly later this morning, following our typical diurnal pattern. Flow will increase from the south on Friday, with light to occasionally moderate onshore flow continuing in the weekend. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible. No impacts are expected outside of locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. 73 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 95 77 93 76 95 75 96 73 / 50 20 60 10 40 30 30 20 Pensacola 92 80 92 78 93 77 96 76 / 50 30 40 10 30 30 30 30 Destin 91 80 91 79 92 78 93 77 / 40 40 30 10 20 30 30 30 Evergreen 95 74 94 72 96 72 95 70 / 30 10 30 10 40 30 30 20 Waynesboro 97 74 95 72 97 71 96 70 / 30 10 50 10 50 30 20 20 Camden 94 74 94 73 94 71 93 69 / 20 10 30 20 50 30 20 20 Crestview 94 74 94 72 96 73 96 72 / 40 20 20 0 30 30 30 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob