064
FXUS64 KMOB 181745
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions prevail for the period outside of showers and
thunderstorms. Reductions in ceilings and visibility to LIFR
flight category remain possible under any storms, in addition to
the potential for strong and variable wind gusts with storms.
Storms wane from numerous coverage this afternoon to isolated to
scattered coverage after dark before becoming numerous again by
early to mid morning Friday. MM/25


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday Night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain expected
this afternoon and evening, with isolated to scattered coverage into
the overnight hours. Upper troughing over the eastern CONUS
stretches down into the forecast area, with a notable shortwave
transiting the base of this trough this afternoon and evening.
This feature will serve as the focus for thunderstorms working in
tandem with a surface front that is sluggishly working its way
southeast into the forecast area. PWATs remain in the 2 to 2.4
inch range, promoting very heavy rainfall with any showers and
storms. Training convection could lead to isolated instances of
flash flooding, particularly in urban and low lying areas similar
to what we saw this morning in Okaloosa county. High temperatures
should manage lower 90`s for the rest of today before increased
cloud cover and thunderstorm coverage helps to keep temperatures
in check. Overnight tonight temperatures fall into the lower to
middle 70`s inland and middle to upper 70`s nearer the coast.

As we head into the day Friday we will likely see the
aforementioned shortwave continuing its slow progression eastward
across the forecast area. Once again numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected by mid to late morning, lasting through
the afternoon and evening hours as convection spreads inland.
Similar hazards can be expected with storms Friday featuring heavy
rainfall and flash flooding concerns in urban and low lying areas,
particularly in any spots that see notable rainfall from the
previous day. Either day can`t rule out a stronger pulse-type
storm or two with gusty winds and small hail. Highs Friday will be
cooler generally in the middle to upper 80`s for all locations.
Friday night temperatures once again dip to the lower to middle
70`s inland and upper 70`s nearer the coast. A LOW risk of rip
currents remains in place through Friday night. MM/25



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  88  74  88  74  89  74  88 /  50  80  70 100  60 100  60  90
Pensacola   78  90  78  88  77  89  77  89 /  60  80  70 100  60  90  60  90
Destin      80  90  79  89  79  90  79  90 /  60  80  70  90  60  90  50  80
Evergreen   72  87  71  88  71  89  71  88 /  70  80  60 100  50 100  50  90
Waynesboro  70  87  70  88  71  89  70  88 /  80  90  70  90  50  90  40  90
Camden      70  85  70  86  70  88  69  87 /  70  80  70 100  50  90  40  80
Crestview   74  91  73  90  73  91  72  91 /  50  80  60 100  50 100  40  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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