791
FXUS64 KMOB 190605
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
105 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail outside of showers and thunderstorms where
brief reductions in ceilings and visibility to LIFR flight
category will remain possible in and around any showers and storms
that occur periodically through the period. Expect heavy
rainfall, in addition to the potential for strong and variable
wind gusts with the stronger storms. Storms wane overnight with
only isolated coverage expected remainder of tonight overnight,
but become more numerous once again by early to mid morning
Friday, then decreasing in coverage again Friday evening. Surface
winds primarily light and variable tonight, then light south to
southwesterly on Friday. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 810 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 810 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions prevail outside of showers and thunderstorms where
brief reductions in ceilings and visibility to LIFR flight
category will remain possible in and around any showers and storms
through the period. Expect heavy rainfall, in addition to the
potential for strong and variable wind gusts with the stronger storms.
Storms wane overnight with only isolated coverage expected
overnight, but become more numerous once again by early to mid
morning Friday. Surface winds primarily light and variable
tonight, then light south to southwesterly on Friday. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain expected
this afternoon and evening, with isolated to scattered coverage into
the overnight hours. Upper troughing over the eastern CONUS
stretches down into the forecast area, with a notable shortwave
transiting the base of this trough this afternoon and evening.
This feature will serve as the focus for thunderstorms working in
tandem with a surface front that is sluggishly working its way
southeast into the forecast area. PWATs remain in the 2 to 2.4
inch range, promoting very heavy rainfall with any showers and
storms. Training convection could lead to isolated instances of
flash flooding, particularly in urban and low lying areas similar
to what we saw this morning in Okaloosa county. High temperatures
should manage lower 90`s for the rest of today before increased
cloud cover and thunderstorm coverage helps to keep temperatures
in check. Overnight tonight temperatures fall into the lower to
middle 70`s inland and middle to upper 70`s nearer the coast.

As we head into the day Friday we will likely see the
aforementioned shortwave continuing its slow progression eastward
across the forecast area. Once again numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected by mid to late morning, lasting through
the afternoon and evening hours as convection spreads inland.
Similar hazards can be expected with storms Friday featuring heavy
rainfall and flash flooding concerns in urban and low lying areas,
particularly in any spots that see notable rainfall from the
previous day. Either day can`t rule out a stronger pulse-type
storm or two with gusty winds and small hail. Highs Friday will be
cooler generally in the middle to upper 80`s for all locations.
Friday night temperatures once again dip to the lower to middle
70`s inland and upper 70`s nearer the coast. A LOW risk of rip
currents remains in place through Friday night. MM/25

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

We have entered a stagnant upper air pattern as an upper trough
extending from southeast Canada to the southern Plains remains
nearly stationary two bookend upper ridges. Meanwhile a surface
ridge over the northern Gulf becomes a bit better organized through
the weekend into the coming week. The steady onshore deep layer flow
keeps moisture levels high over the Southeast (precipitable h20
levels above 2"). Through the weekend into the coming week, it is
pretty much the same story/different day. Showers and thunderstorms
initiate south of the northern Gulf coast in the overnight hours
into the first few hours after sunrise. From there, a short lull in
the morning with convection again increasing in coverage over inland
areas of the Southeast is expected. For the forecast area, a few
storms may become strong to marginally severe, though modest
instability keeps the risk low. There continues to be a risk of
water issues, with the scattered to numerous daytime coverage of
efficient rainers. The forecast area can handle more rain this time
of the year due to the summer time growth, but if a locality sees
several training cells, there may be ponding to low end flooding
issues. Also, an extended period of rain may help to keep soils more
moist than usual, decreasing absorption. Will need to monitor.

With average upper level heights (and modest upper subsidence)
combined with daily rain, temperatures around to below seasonal are
expected through the weekend into the coming week. High temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected through Wednesday, with low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s north of I-10, mid 70s to near 80
south to the coast. Heat indices remain well below advisory
criteria, topping out at or below 102 degrees each day.

Beach Note: A LOW risk of rip currents is expected to continue
through Monday afternoon. Guidance is advertising onshore flow
becoming more organized and a bit strong, bringing increasing swell
to area beaches and a MODERATE risk of rip currents Monday night
into mid week. /16 /22

MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms through
the weekend and into next week. Conditions are favorable for
waterspouts each morning. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  74  88  74  87  74  89  74 /  90  70  80  60  80  50  80  40
Pensacola   87  78  88  78  88  77  89  77 /  80  80  80  60  80  50  80  40
Destin      87  80  89  79  89  79  90  79 /  80  70  80  60  80  50  70  40
Evergreen   87  71  87  71  88  71  89  71 /  80  70  80  50  80  40  80  30
Waynesboro  86  71  87  71  88  70  89  70 /  80  70  80  50  80  40  80  40
Camden      87  71  87  70  87  69  88  70 /  80  70  80  50  80  40  80  40
Crestview   88  74  90  73  90  72  91  73 /  80  60  80  50  80  40  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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