Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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988 FXUS64 KMOB 160946 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 446 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Earlier scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms that were prolific lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds producers across portions of southwest and south central AL late Monday evening and night have pretty much diminished as of 3 AM CDT. A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm or two could still develop within the moist airmass through the early morning hours, so we have left a low chance of convection in the forecast through 7 AM CDT. A relatively weak southwesterly to southerly flow pattern aloft will prevail across our forecast area today as our region will be within a weakness between ridging over the southern Rockies/High Plains and another weak ridge aloft extending from the eastern Gulf through the Florida peninsula and adjacent southwestern Atlantic. Plentiful moisture will continue to reside across our forecast area today with precipitable water values continuing to generally average from between 1.75" to a little over 2". This deeply moist airmass combined with ascent associated with minor shortwave perturbations moving over the area within the weakness aloft and convergence along the seabreeze will result in relative high convective chances over the area today, with another round of scattered to locally numerous showers and storms developing during the late morning and afternoon. We have POPs generally ranging between 40-65 percent across the region by this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms may linger into the evening hours before diminishing after dark. The unsettled pattern continues on Wednesday as the base of an upper trough moves into the TN/Mid-MS Valley region. Plentiful deep layer moisture remains in place over our area, so the pattern will once again favor good convective chances over the region again by Wednesday afternoon. Hot and humid conditions can be expected prior to and outside of convective initiation. Highs in the mid 90s inland and around 90 to the lower 90s along the coast combined with dewpoints in the 70s will result in heat indices between 105-110 over much of the area today and probably again on Wednesday. Will maintain the Heat Advisory for the entire region today and let the next shift assess the need for another on Wednesday. The risk of rip currents looks to remain low for the next several days. /21 && SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 An upper ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf of Mexico/eastern Southeast shifts south as an upper trough over the Mississippi River Valley deepens. A surface ridge stretching west over the Gulf shifts east in response, with southwesterly flow from the Gulf to more easterly, helping to maintain the soupy airmass (precipitable h20 values > 2") over the forecast area and nearby. Guidance is advertising a surface cold front shifting southeast over the Lower Mississippi River Valley towards the forecast mid week before stalling northwest of the forecast area Thursday, helping to provide the focus for daytime rain production. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend into the coming week as weakening upper subsidence from the shifting upper ridge combines with the approaching surface front and high moisture levels to bring above seasonal chances of rain to the forecast area. Am expecting the current offshore overnight/onshore afternoon into evening pattern of convection to continue, with scattered to numerous showers showers and thunderstorms forming offshore as a landbreeze sets up south of the coast, then moving/redeveloping inland during the day/evening. The chance of strong to marginally severe storms decrease with lessening availability of instability, but will need to monitor. Will also need to monitor for water issues, as the coverage of these efficient rain producing storms increases. The weakening upper subsidence and high rain chances will limit daytime heating a bit more than previous days. High temperatures Thursday in the low to mid 90s Thursday drop to a bit below seasonal by the weekend, upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices drop below advisory levels by Friday, but another advisory is likely to be needed Thursday. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly to westerly flow is expected through the week. There is a chance of thunderstorms each day this week with favorable conditions for waterspouts in the mornings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 76 94 76 92 75 89 74 / 50 20 60 20 90 70 90 60 Pensacola 92 78 91 79 92 77 89 77 / 50 20 60 40 90 60 80 60 Destin 90 81 91 81 91 79 89 79 / 50 20 60 40 80 60 70 60 Evergreen 95 73 94 74 92 73 87 71 / 50 30 60 30 90 70 90 50 Waynesboro 96 73 97 74 93 72 87 71 / 40 30 60 30 90 70 90 40 Camden 95 73 95 74 92 71 86 71 / 40 30 60 40 90 70 90 50 Crestview 94 74 94 74 93 73 90 73 / 70 20 60 20 90 60 90 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob