Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 091154
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for 123 Scrub...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
754 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on July 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds early this morning will become west to southwest around
5 to 10 mph. A few showers will be possible into the morning, with
isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across the burn
site this afternoon (chance of rain 50%). Any storms will be capable
of producing wind gusts to 40 to 45 mph, frequent lightning strikes,
and locally heavy rainfall. Dispersion values will be Fair this
afternoon.

Temperatures will not be as hot as yesterday, but highs will still
reach the low 90s, with humid conditions producing peak heat index
values around 104. This level of heat can affect anyone without
adequate precautions.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the morning, then chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL increasing to 3600 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 10 mph increasing to 12 to 13 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....16 increasing to 36 early in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5 decreasing to 3 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........58  61  65  57  69  68  70  72  75
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  20  20  30  30  40  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3
Temp............80  85  86  87  88  88  88  90  86
RH..............89  78  75  72  68  67  66  61  70
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   5   6   6   7   8   8   7   7
20 FT wind gust.6   8   10  12  13  14  14  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.9 2.9 3.6 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.8 1.8
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.6   7   8   8   10  10  13  13  12
Dispersion idx..11  20  28  34  36  34  35  32  27
LVORI...........5   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2100, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 5 mph early in the evening,
                    then becoming light late in the evening
                    becoming south around 5 mph late in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south 5
                    to 6 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Dispersion index....19 decreasing to 5.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 8.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........75  71  75  70  66  61  60  67  73  68  60  57
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  30  20  20  10  10  10  0   0   0   0
LAL.............3   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............86  85  81  80  79  79  78  78  77  77  77  76
RH..............68  73  79  85  88  88  91  88  89  89  92  94
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   2   3   5   5   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.12  9   8   7   6           5   5   5   5   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
Transp wind spd.10  8   5   5   5   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
Dispersion idx..19  9   3   1   1   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
LVORI...........3   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   8   7

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms through the day.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 9-15 strikes until
                    1400, then 1-8 strikes until 1700, then 9-15
                    strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL increasing to 4300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 8 mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 33.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........54  58  70  72  72  70  61  57  59  63  67  68
Weather cov.....        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   2   2   2   3
Temp............76  76  79  82  84  85  87  89  91  91  91  90
RH..............92  92  91  83  78  73  67  63  58  58  59  57
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   5   6   6   6   6   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   7   9   12  13  13  14  14  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 2.4 3.4 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7   8   8
Dispersion idx..2   3   5   6   8   11  19  27  33  35  34  30
LVORI...........6   6   6   5   4   4   3   2   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...Weitlich
Requested by...Adam Peterson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2417670.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL apeterson@tnc.org