872
FXUS62 KMLB 091422
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1022 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Offshore flow continues today, and should strengthen slightly
through the afternoon. HRRR indicates sea breeze may be able to
form along much of the coast, with greater potential of sea
breeze development south of the Cape. However, this boundary will
likely remaining pinned close to the coast. Plenty of moisture is
in place, with PW values up to 2-2.3", for convective development
today. However, CAM guidance showing varying degrees of coverage,
with recent HRRR runs keeping showers and storms scattered at best
into the afternoon and focused with boundary interactions toward
the coast. MOS guidance keeps rain chances relatively high and
there is at least mostly to partly sunny skies to start the day,
which should provide sufficient heating. So have PoPs still in
the likely range (60-70 percent) across much of the area.

Model soundings show lower DCAPE values today due to the deeper
moisture, but may still see a few stronger storms, producing
frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts up to 40-45 mph.
West-northwest steering winds also remain weak, which may lead to
slower east-southeast movement of storms, keeping the potential
of locally heavy rainfall in the forecast today. Any storms will
be capable of producing 1-3 inch amounts with localized spots of
4+ inches not out of the question. A Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall is still highlighted across the area by WPC today.

Max temps forecast to be not as high as yesterday, coming in near
to slightly above normal in the low 90s across much of the region.
However, locations near the coast that see enough sunshine and
where the sea breeze and convection is delayed enough may be able
to reach the mid 90s. Heat index values also coming in lower than
yesterday, but remaining quite humid with peak heat index values
around 102-107.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 639 EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Key Messages:

- "Cooler" Today but still hot with forecast heat index values
  between 100-107

- Isolated to scattered lightning storms with locally heavy
  rainfall and wind gusts up to 40 mph this afternoon

- Excessive Heat forecast to return this weekend

Currently-Tonight... Current local radar imagery shows dry weather
over east central Florida. Analysis charts show a weak upper level
low over the southwest Atlantic under the western Atlantic ridge.
The aforementioned trough is forecast to weaken as it moves west-
southwest over the southwestern Atlantic and over south-central
Florida into Wednesday morning. The trough will provide increased
moisture (PWAT values between 2.10-2.60") and lift this afternoon
for scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered
lighting storms to develop. However, temperatures aloft are
expected to remain relatively warm (-6 to -7C at 500mb).

It`ll be "cooler" today compared to the last several days but
it`ll still be hot with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s
to low 90s and heat index values between 100-107 under mostly
cloudy skies. This level of heat can affect anyone without
adequate precautions. It is recommended to take frequent breaks
from the heat and drink plenty of fluids. Predominately light
west to southwest winds are expected to result in sea breeze and
boundary collisions mainly to the east of I-4, as well as towards
the Space and Treasure Coasts with the highest shower (PoPs
~60-80%) and lightning storm chances there this afternoon and
early evening. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to
scattered lightning storms are forecast to develop into this
afternoon with the highest coverage expected along the coast where
the east coast sea breeze develops and moves slightly inland.

Wind fields are forecast to be weak again today with the main
hazard expected to be slow moving showers and storms that will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall (1-3" with local
amounts up to 4+") which will have the potential to result in
minor flooding of low-lying areas and roadways. A Marginal Risk
for Excessive Rainfall exists for all of east central Florida for
this reason with the greatest potential along and east of I-4, as
well as towards the Space and Treasure Coasts this afternoon.
Additionally, isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts up to
40 mph and occasional to frequent lightning strikes are forecast
this afternoon. Rain and storm chances gradually diminish after
sunset and end by midnight. Light southwest winds will back east-
southeast at around 10mph with the east coast sea breeze into the
afternoon (mainly along the coast).

Wednesday... Predominate west to southwest flow will lead to lower
shower and lightning storm chances Wednesday with the greatest
chance along the coast where a weak east coast sea breeze develops
(mainly to the south of Cape Canaveral). Isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and lightning storms are forecast mainly near
the coast Wednesday. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are
forecast through the workweek with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Thursday-Friday... The east coast sea breeze is forecast to
develop and push inland along the coast into Thursday afternoon
(mainly east of Orlando). Scattered to numerous showers and
isolated to scattered lightning storms are forecast Thursday
afternoon with the highest chances along and east of I-4, as well
as towards the Treasure Coast (PoPs ~60-70%). The east coast sea
breeze is forecast to move farther inland on Friday with the
greatest chance for sea breeze and boundary collisions over the
western interior (PoPs ~ 50-60%). The main lightning storm hazards
will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up
to 30-40mph, and heavy rainfall. Afternoon temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s are forecast with heat index values between
98-104.

Saturday-Monday... High pressure is expected to build over the
western Atlantic and the state of Florida into the weekend with
500mb heights reaching 594-597dm. Onshore flow is forecast to
develop with lower rain shower (PoPs ~40-60%) and storm chances,
as well as cloud cover. Excessive heat is forecast to return with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values
between 105-110 under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Low
temperatures in the low 70s to near 80 degrees are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

An unsettled weather pattern aided by a disturbance aloft and
very deep moisture will result in a high coverage of showers and
lightning storms. We could see early initiation of convective
activity, esp where the sun is able to heat the atmosphere early
in the day. The low-level offshore flow looks to be strong enough
to inhibit sea breeze formation near KMLB northward. South from
here the sea breeze may be able to develop but not push too far
inland during the day. SW/W winds for most up to around 10 kts,
with wind component backing ESE/SE along the Treasure Coast where
the sea breeze has the best chance to develop. "Vicinity" wording
and TEMPO groups in place as appropriate for TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 639 EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Currently-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
outside of lighting storms. Scattered showers and lightning
storms are forecast each afternoon and early evening. Isolated
storms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall,
occasional to frequent lightning strikes and wind gusts up to
40mph. Light southwest winds back southeast near the coast this
afternoon with the sea breeze at 6-12kts and to the south of Cape
Canaveral Wednesday. Seas are forecast to build up to 1-3ft.

Thursday-Saturday... Boating conditions remain favorable outside of
lightning storms. Offshore flow is forecast to develop mid to late
week with a greater chance for offshore moving showers and lighting
storms capable of gusty winds and occasional to frequent lighting
strikes. West to southwest winds at 5-10kts are expected through
Thursday with onshore winds forecast to develop into Friday
afternoon and into the weekend. Seas are forecast to build up to
1-3ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  92  76 /  70  30  50  40
MCO  91  76  91  77 /  70  30  40  30
MLB  92  75  92  76 /  70  40  60  40
VRB  93  74  92  75 /  70  40  60  40
LEE  90  77  92  77 /  60  30  40  30
SFB  92  76  92  77 /  70  30  50  40
ORL  92  77  92  77 /  70  30  40  40
FPR  93  74  92  75 /  70  40  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Sedlock