104
FXUS62 KMLB 131130
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
730 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 612 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR expected thru the day outside of ISOLD-SCT convection.
Light/variable to calm winds will transition to light SW/WSW early
this morning, then "back" to ESE/SE early this afternoon along
the coast with sea breeze formation and slow march inland.
Inherited VCTS with low confidence in timing and coverage after
17Z-20Z. Will entertain TEMPO groups as confidence increases.
Brief MVFR/IFR conds are possible this aftn with convective
activity. Convection ending thru mid-evening, with thinning clouds
thereafter and winds diminishing L/V to calm.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Key Messages:
-Persistent warm and muggy conditions continue today.
-Drier air builds late week, lowering temperatures and storm chances.

Today...A persistent pattern will continue to promote warm and muggy
conditions with afternoon storms. The western Atlantic ridge axis
remains settled across portions of the southern CWA, near Lake
Okeechobee. Diurnal showers and storms become scattered (~40%) this
afternoon as mesoscale boundaries develop and collisions occur.
Storm hazards include occasional to frequent lightning strikes,
gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches.

The temperature forecast remains steady with highs in the low to mid
90s. Peak heat index values are forecast to remain just shy of Heat
Advisory criteria, increasing between 104-107 degrees.

Wednesday-Thursday...An area of surface low pressure along the
southeast coast stretches seaward. An associated frontal boundary
sinks into north Florida Wednesday, moving across the Florida
peninsula into Thursday. Moisture remains in place to promote
scattered showers and storms each afternoon (~50%). Will continue to
monitor heat index values near Heat Advisory criteria on Wednesday
with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s once again. The frontal
boundary will finally bring some relief from the heat on Thursday
with highs in the low 90s. A few spots across Volusia county could
remain cooler in the upper 80s.

Friday-Monday...A drier airmass builds across east central Florida
as an area of surface high pressure is pushed offshore the eastern
seaboard. Coverage of afternoon showers and storms diminishes to
between 20-30% through the weekend before increasing again into
Monday. Afternoon temperatures fall a few degrees cooler with highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s Friday and Saturday. Gradual warming
is forecast into early next week with highs returning to the low to
mid 90s.

Tropical Storm Ernesto is forecast to move northward, well east of
Florida. Long period swells from the offshore tropical system are
expected to produce rough surf and a High risk of rip currents at
area beaches this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Tuesday-Wednesday...Light offshore flow today becomes variable
Wednesday as a frontal boundary sinks toward the local waters.
Favorable seas continue, remaining 2-3 ft. Slow, offshore moving
showers and storms are forecast each afternoon.

Thursday-Saturday...North to northeast flow develops behind the
frontal boundary Thursday, increasing to 10-12 kts each afternoon.
Seas of 2-3 ft build to 5-8 ft Friday as Tropical Storm Ernesto
moves northward, remaining far east of the local waters. Seas
gradually subside Saturday, becoming 4-5 ft. Coverage of showers and
storms decrease each afternoon as a drier airmass builds across the
waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  77  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
MCO  95  78  95  77 /  40  10  50  10
MLB  92  77  93  77 /  30  20  50  20
VRB  93  77  93  76 /  30  20  50  20
LEE  94  78  95  77 /  30  10  50  20
SFB  95  78  95  77 /  40  10  50  10
ORL  96  79  95  79 /  40  10  50  10
FPR  93  77  93  76 /  30  20  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Sedlock