873
FXUS62 KMLB 132341
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
741 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR are expected for much of this TAF period. Lingering VCSH/VCTS
near DAB/TIX/MLB will gradually dissipate and move offshore by
02z Wed. Variable to light SW winds overnight will veer westerly
by 15z Wed., before the sea breeze backs winds at coastal
terminals around 18z-20z. VCTS is forecast at all terminals again
Wed., with iso/sct TSRA trending north to south thru the end of
the period. Brief MVFR/IFR conds and TEMPOs cannot be ruled out
Wed. afternoon. Light winds veer northerly toward 00z Thu.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Key Messages:
-Persistent warm and muggy conditions continue into at least
 Wednesday.
-Drier air builds late week, lowering temperatures and storm chances.

Current-Tonight... Scattered showers and lightning storms are
pushing into the interior from the west this afternoon. These
showers are generally moving eastward around 10-15 mph. The east
coast sea breeze has formed this afternoon and is pushing in land.
Temperatures as of 3 PM are in the low to mid 90s with heat indices
generally ranging from 100-106 degrees.

Sufficient moisture remains over the area, with the 15Z XMR sounding
showing a PW value of 2.01" with decent DCAPE and plenty of
instability (MUCAPE ~2500 J/kg). This will continue to support
scattered showers and lightning storms this afternoon and evening.
Additional showers and storms are expected to form along the sea
breeze this afternoon and into this evening. Have maintained PoP 20-
40 percent across the local area this afternoon, with the greatest
potential for storms occurring across the interior and from
Melbourne northward along the coast where interactions between
outflow boundaries and the sea breeze are expected. Main storm
hazards today will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes,
gusty winds of 40-45mph, and locally heavy rainfall accumulations of
2-3 inches. Hot and muggy conditions will continue this afternoon,
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices
of 104-107 degrees

Any lingering showers and storms this evening will dissipate or move
out of the local area by midnight. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions
expected overnight, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Gulf Stream waters. Winds will become light and variable
overnight with mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 70s.

Wednesday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) An area of
surface low pressure along the southeast coast stretches seaward. An
associated frontal boundary sinks into north Florida Wednesday,
moving across the Florida peninsula into Thursday. Moisture remains
in place to promote scattered showers and storms each afternoon (PoP
40-50%). Near Heat Advisory criteria will continue into mid week,
with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s once again. The frontal
boundary will finally bring some relief from the heat on Thursday
with highs in the low 90s. A few spots across Volusia county could
remain cooler in the upper 80s.

Friday-Monday... (Previous Discussion) A drier airmass builds across
east central Florida as an area of surface high pressure is pushed
offshore the eastern seaboard. Coverage of afternoon showers and
storms diminishes to between 20-30% through the weekend before
increasing again into Monday. Afternoon temperatures fall a few
degrees cooler with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Friday and
Saturday. Gradual warming is forecast into early next week with
highs returning to the low to mid 90s.

Tropical Storm Ernesto is forecast to move northward, well east of
Florida. Long period swells from the offshore tropical system are
expected to produce rough surf and a High risk of rip currents at
area beaches this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Current-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) South to
southwest winds around 10 KT will become light overnight. Winds will
become variable on Wednesday as a frontal boundary sinks toward the
local waters. Favorable boating conditions continue, with seas
remaining 2-3 ft. Scattered showers are forecast through tonight
across the Gulf Stream, with slow, offshore moving showers and
storms possible once again Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday-Saturday... (Previous Discussion) North to northeast flow
develops behind the frontal boundary Thursday, increasing to 10-12
kts each afternoon. Seas of 2-3 ft build to 5-8 ft Friday as
Tropical Storm Ernesto moves northward, remaining far east of the
local waters. Seas gradually subside Saturday, becoming 4-5 ft.
Coverage of showers and storms decrease each afternoon as a drier
airmass builds across the waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  94  77  89 /  10  50  20  50
MCO  78  96  78  93 /  10  50  10  50
MLB  78  93  77  90 /  20  50  20  50
VRB  77  94  76  91 /  20  50  20  50
LEE  78  95  77  92 /  10  50  20  50
SFB  78  95  77  91 /  10  50  10  50
ORL  79  96  79  93 /  10  50  10  50
FPR  77  93  77  91 /  10  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper