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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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873 FXUS62 KMLB 132341 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 741 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR are expected for much of this TAF period. Lingering VCSH/VCTS near DAB/TIX/MLB will gradually dissipate and move offshore by 02z Wed. Variable to light SW winds overnight will veer westerly by 15z Wed., before the sea breeze backs winds at coastal terminals around 18z-20z. VCTS is forecast at all terminals again Wed., with iso/sct TSRA trending north to south thru the end of the period. Brief MVFR/IFR conds and TEMPOs cannot be ruled out Wed. afternoon. Light winds veer northerly toward 00z Thu. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Key Messages: -Persistent warm and muggy conditions continue into at least Wednesday. -Drier air builds late week, lowering temperatures and storm chances. Current-Tonight... Scattered showers and lightning storms are pushing into the interior from the west this afternoon. These showers are generally moving eastward around 10-15 mph. The east coast sea breeze has formed this afternoon and is pushing in land. Temperatures as of 3 PM are in the low to mid 90s with heat indices generally ranging from 100-106 degrees. Sufficient moisture remains over the area, with the 15Z XMR sounding showing a PW value of 2.01" with decent DCAPE and plenty of instability (MUCAPE ~2500 J/kg). This will continue to support scattered showers and lightning storms this afternoon and evening. Additional showers and storms are expected to form along the sea breeze this afternoon and into this evening. Have maintained PoP 20- 40 percent across the local area this afternoon, with the greatest potential for storms occurring across the interior and from Melbourne northward along the coast where interactions between outflow boundaries and the sea breeze are expected. Main storm hazards today will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-45mph, and locally heavy rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches. Hot and muggy conditions will continue this afternoon, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of 104-107 degrees Any lingering showers and storms this evening will dissipate or move out of the local area by midnight. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions expected overnight, with isolated showers and storms possible over the Gulf Stream waters. Winds will become light and variable overnight with mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) An area of surface low pressure along the southeast coast stretches seaward. An associated frontal boundary sinks into north Florida Wednesday, moving across the Florida peninsula into Thursday. Moisture remains in place to promote scattered showers and storms each afternoon (PoP 40-50%). Near Heat Advisory criteria will continue into mid week, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s once again. The frontal boundary will finally bring some relief from the heat on Thursday with highs in the low 90s. A few spots across Volusia county could remain cooler in the upper 80s. Friday-Monday... (Previous Discussion) A drier airmass builds across east central Florida as an area of surface high pressure is pushed offshore the eastern seaboard. Coverage of afternoon showers and storms diminishes to between 20-30% through the weekend before increasing again into Monday. Afternoon temperatures fall a few degrees cooler with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Friday and Saturday. Gradual warming is forecast into early next week with highs returning to the low to mid 90s. Tropical Storm Ernesto is forecast to move northward, well east of Florida. Long period swells from the offshore tropical system are expected to produce rough surf and a High risk of rip currents at area beaches this weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 405 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Current-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) South to southwest winds around 10 KT will become light overnight. Winds will become variable on Wednesday as a frontal boundary sinks toward the local waters. Favorable boating conditions continue, with seas remaining 2-3 ft. Scattered showers are forecast through tonight across the Gulf Stream, with slow, offshore moving showers and storms possible once again Wednesday afternoon. Thursday-Saturday... (Previous Discussion) North to northeast flow develops behind the frontal boundary Thursday, increasing to 10-12 kts each afternoon. Seas of 2-3 ft build to 5-8 ft Friday as Tropical Storm Ernesto moves northward, remaining far east of the local waters. Seas gradually subside Saturday, becoming 4-5 ft. Coverage of showers and storms decrease each afternoon as a drier airmass builds across the waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 94 77 89 / 10 50 20 50 MCO 78 96 78 93 / 10 50 10 50 MLB 78 93 77 90 / 20 50 20 50 VRB 77 94 76 91 / 20 50 20 50 LEE 78 95 77 92 / 10 50 20 50 SFB 78 95 77 91 / 10 50 10 50 ORL 79 96 79 93 / 10 50 10 50 FPR 77 93 77 91 / 10 50 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Schaper