808
FXUS62 KMLB 120204
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1004 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Tonight...Cloudy conditions will persist overnight. Showers are
forecast to increase in coverage across the Treasure Coast and
into Okeechobee county. There is low confidence in occasional
lightning strikes accompanying this activity, and the best chance
for lightning will be along the coast and over the adjacent
Atlantic waters. Shower activity should stay mostly south of Cape
Canaveral with areas along and north of the I-4 corridor remaining
dry. Overnight temperatures remain muggy, mostly in the mid 70s
by day break.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers and a few storms remain possible late this
afternoon into tonight

- Highest daily afternoon rain and storm chances begin to focus west
of I-95 this weekend into next week

- Heat ramps up this weekend, especially Sunday, with heat
  indices of 105 to 110 degrees continuing into next week

Now-Tonight...There has been no shortage of cloud cover today, in
part due to persistent showers and lightning storms well offshore,
associated with a surface low off of the southeast U.S. coast.
Extending north and west of the low center is a weak trough that
will continue to influence our weather, as it begins to shift
westward Friday into the weekend. The temperature forecast has been
adjusted again for this afternoon and evening, as values have
struggled to reach the mid/upper 80s in a number of locations.
Clouds briefly eroded across the northern half of the area and
allowed for locally greater surface heating, but are now filling
back in as shower activity approaches the coast. Still, these
clouds and earlier showers have given us a break from the stretch
of very hot days as of late.

Considerable uncertainty remains with regard to PoPs this evening
into tonight. Recent CAM runs, including WoFS ensemble guidance,
indicate isolated showers and a storm or two may redevelop where
clouds eroded earlier and allowed MLCAPE to nose above 1000 J/kg.
The focus for this activity would be mainly near and north of the
Melbourne area. For now, any showers/storms look to remain
isolated and not widespread in nature. Gusty winds, lightning
strikes, and brief heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out from any
storm, though lapse rates are rather modest.

Elsewhere, expect mostly dry conditions as temperatures fall into
the 70s by mid evening. Overnight lows are expected to reach the
low to mid 70s, perhaps staying a degree or two warmer if cloud
cover lingers longer than currently anticipated.

Friday-Saturday...Friday is a transitional day, as surface flow
becomes more SSW and the east coast sea breeze tries to develop
along the coast in the afternoon. Barring any early-day clouds or
convection, models indicate a warmer day is in store for Friday.
This will also give way to surface heating and low-level buoyancy,
supportive of scattered rain and storms by the afternoon. Forecast
soundings show rather weak mid level lapse rates and weak flow
aloft. Thus, storm motions will be slow and could lead to heavy
rain over one area for a period of time, which could lead to
localized flooding. While the risk for rain and storms appears
slightly higher than what has occurred today, not everyone is set
to see a shower or storm. High temperatures will once again hinge
on cloud cover, but are expected to reach the 90 degree mark in
most locales.

Onshore flow settles in on Saturday, bringing back a more notable
development of the afternoon east coast sea breeze. Higher rain
and storm chances begin to focus along and west of I-95, as the
sea breeze translates westward during the afternoon and early
evening. Likely PoPs were included from the Orlando metro area
westward as a result. Less cloud cover is expected Saturday,
thus, temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s. The
warmest locations will be inland, prior to the arrival of the sea
breeze and any associated convection. Heat indices may approach
105-107 degrees, especially inland and also temporarily behind the
sea breeze passage. Sunday only gets warmer, so plan ahead to stay
cool and hydrated this weekend. Overnight lows will settle into
the mid-upper 70s.

Sunday-Wednesday (modified previous)...High pressure across the
western Atlantic will slowly build westward across Florida and
the Deep South this weekend into next week. Locally, winds will
remain southeasterly on Saturday, persisting into early next week
with speeds generally 10 mph or less. The east coast sea breeze
is forecast to form each afternoon, backing the winds more onshore
and locally increasing speeds to around 10-15 mph. Scattered showers
and lightning storms are expected each afternoon, continuing
through early evening. The highest coverage of rain through the
weekend will focus across west FL with the greatest potential
locally occurring across the interior, due to boundary collisions
being forecast to occur just to the west of ECFL. The greatest
rain potential early to mid week will focus across the interior
where sea breezes and outflow boundary collisions are expected.

Temperatures will continue the warming trend, with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 90s. These warm temperatures, coupled
with high humidity, will produce peak heat indices between
105-110 degrees (especially on Sunday). Overnight lows will be in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 753 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Prevailing VFR is forecast. VCSH from MLB southward this evening,
lingering overnight at FPR/SUA. W to SW winds around 5 kts
overnight into the morning. The east coast sea breeze is forecast
to develop tomorrow afternoon, but light prevailing offshore flow
should limit its overall inland extent. VCTS at all terminals
tomorrow, generally after 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Tonight...Offshore flow around 10-15 kt generally decreases
overnight and backs to the SW. Scattered rain and isolated lightning
storms remain possible as a surface low and weak trough extends west
over the local waters. Coverage will gradually shift southward
into tonight. Seas generally stay around 2-3 ft.

Friday-Monday (modified previous)...Favorable boating conditions
outside of convection are expected this weekend and early next
week. SSW winds on Friday will become SSE on Saturday and
continue through early week, with speeds generally around 10 KT.
The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon
starting on Saturday and continue to do so through early week,
which will back the winds more ESE and increase speeds to 10-15
KT. Seas 2-3ft, building up to 4 ft offshore on Sunday and
Monday. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible,
with the greatest chances moving inland with the east coast
breeze each afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  94  77  94 /  10  40  20  40
MCO  76  93  77  94 /  10  60  20  60
MLB  74  91  76  91 /  30  60  30  40
VRB  74  91  75  91 /  40  50  30  40
LEE  77  94  79  94 /  10  40  10  60
SFB  76  94  77  94 /  10  50  20  60
ORL  77  93  78  94 /  10  60  20  60
FPR  74  90  75  91 /  40  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Law
AVIATION...Law