113
FXUS62 KMLB 021758
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
158 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The east coast sea breeze is observed moving inland of the coastal
terminals. VCTS is ongoing from the MLB terminal southward with
scattered convection focused to the west. Have kept a TSRA TEMPO
at VRB through 19Z for MVFR VIS/CIG reductions in convection. VCTS
beginning around 20/21Z at the inland terminals as the sea breeze
passes. TSRA TEMPOs included at MCO/ISM/LEE late this afternoon
and into the evening as a sea breeze collision occurs. South winds
ahead of the sea breeze become east to southeast behind the
boundary.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Motion of cloud elements seen on GOES-16 hi res visible satellite
imagery nicely trace out the location of the low level ridge axis
which extends from the Atlc across the northern Bahamas (Great
Abaco/Grand Bahama) and westward across the Treasure coast/Lake
Okeechobee. A stationary frontal boundary is analyzed across south
GA and into the Atlc and this boundary will gradually dissipate.
The early morning Cape sounding shows considerable low level
moisture which should produce an early cu field over land. The
cloud lines over the Atlc are already bubbling with showers as
they lift northward and this should transition to coastal sections
shortly as the east coast sea breeze develops initially along the
Treasure coast. The showers should develop into lightning storms
early this afternoon just inland from the coast which will
develop/propagate inland with the sea breeze. Some gusty outflows
may push back to the coast and affect portions of the
intracoastal waters. Focus for storms will shift inland during the
afternoon with another late collision with the west coast sea
breeze near Lake county around sunset. No significant
changes/updates needed on winds/temps/pops for today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Today-Saturday... The surface high pressure axis will lift from near
Central Florida today to the north of the local waters through at
least early Friday. Light SSE winds (5-12 KT) turn more to the SE
through mid and late week, as a result. The daily sea breeze
circulation will locally enhance winds near the coast each afternoon
before veering offshore and becoming light overnight. Seas 2 FT or
less today, building slightly to 2-3 FT for the remainder of the
week. A few showers and storms are forecast, especially during the
overnight hours offshore and nearshore during the morning and early
afternoon. However, a lot of dry weather is expected and overall
favorable conditions will persist for both offshore and inshore
boaters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  76  91 /  20  30  20  40
MCO  77  93  76  93 /  40  50  10  50
MLB  78  91  78  91 /  20  30  10  30
VRB  77  91  76  91 /  20  30  10  30
LEE  78  94  78  94 /  50  60  30  50
SFB  77  93  76  94 /  20  50  20  50
ORL  78  93  77  94 /  40  50  20  50
FPR  77  91  76  91 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Law