073
FXUS62 KMHX 151354
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
954 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will gradually shift
offshore by Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west.
Cold front will then track across the Carolinas Sunday into
Monday bringing our next threat for unsettled weather to the
area. Swell from distant Hurricane Ernesto will begin impacting
the coast starting Friday and persisting into the weekend,
bringing a threat for an elevated rip current risk and coastal
impacts. High pressure then builds in from the north and west
early next week once again bringing fair weather to ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

As of 10 AM Thurs... No significant changes to the forecast
with the morning update.

Previous Discussion...Another nice day is on tap today as an
upper level trough gradually begins to push off the coast this
afternoon and evening while at the surface high pressure ridging
continues to nudge south across the Carolinas. With ample dry
air through the column and no significant shortwaves making
their way across ENC today, expecting a dry forecast with just
some diurnal Cu setting up this afternoon. Will continue to have
light NE`rly flow across ENC today keeping the NOBX slightly
cooler than the rest of the area but overall expect widespread
high temps in the 80s today with mid to upper 80s inland and low
80s along the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Pleasant conditions continue tonight as
upper troughing pushes offshore and is quickly replaced by an
upper level ridge. At the surface, high pressure ridging
gradually pushes offshore keeping things dry across ENC once
again. With mo clear skies, light and variable winds, and a dry
airmass aloft over ENC expect favorable conditions for
decoupling bringing a low end threat for some patchy radiational
fog. Once again not expecting any significant impacts even if
fog develops given ample dry air over ENC. Tonight`s lows once
again get into the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s to near
70 along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thu...A drying trend will cont through the week as high
pressure remains overhead. A cold front and trough approach on
the weekend with increasing shower and storm chances, peaking
Sunday.

Friday through Sunday...The initial upper trough shifts off the
East Coast through Friday with upper ridging building in from
the west. NHC guidance continues to take Tropical Cyclone
Ernesto well off the NC coast, close to Bermuda, Friday night
through the weekend. At the same time, another trough will dig
south from the Great Lakes into the eastern CONUS, with a cold
front moving into Eastern NC by late weekend, bringing with it
increasing chances for showers & thunderstorms across the
region. Fcst is pop-free through Fri, then aforementioned trough
and cold front bring threat for shower and storms. A small
threat exists mainly for interior zones later Sat, but Sun
appears the best chance for precip as 00/15Z guidance in good
agreement now. Could be a severe threat as well, with ML CAPES
per ECM guidance indicative of values over 2k J/KG and deep
layer shear aoa 30 kt.

Monday...Upr trough remains west of the region with the front
stalling through Monday. Therefore, chances for precip cont, and
have advertised 40-50% pops.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Cold front expected to push through,
thus precip chances wane and mostly dry and cooler conditions
are expected. Temps drop back down to near climo, with highs in
the 80s, and lows mainly in the 60s (low 70s coast).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Thursday night/...
As of 705 AM Thursday...Patchy ground fog did end up developing
across all terminals and across much of the Coastal Plain
overnight, though this ground fog brought little to no impact
to operations. Primarily a VFR TAF across all terminals through
today with the exception of OAJ/PGV where ground fog has yet to
dissipate so left a TEMPO MVFR vis group between 12Z-13Z to
account for the ongoing ground fog before it dissipates.
Otherwise light NE`rly winds and mo clear skies are forecast
today. As we get into tonight we will once again have a low
end threat for ground fog this evening. If fog were to develop
it would likely develop after 06Z and once again pose little to
no impact to operations.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thu...Dry weather expected through Friday, then
unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light winds and good
radiational cooling conditions will continue to bring the chance
for late night/early morning patchy fog and stratus most
mornings, especially given the saturated ground. Cold front
will move into the area by this weekend, yielding increasing
chances for unsettled weather with showers/storms possible,
especially on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...We start the period out with benign
boating weather with that quickly shifting towards daybreak on
Friday with the approach of swell associated with distant
Hurricane Ernesto. Currently obs show widespread 5-10 kt
N-NE`rly winds and 1 to 2 ft seas across our coastal waters this
morning. Expect winds to generally remain around 5-15 kts
coming from a N-NE`rly direction through the entire period. The
bigger story however will be the seas. Current guidance suggests
the ongoing 1-2 ft seas this morning will gradually increase to
2-3 ft by mid-morning and then 2-4 ft this afternoon. Seas will
continue to increase tonight as long period (~14-15 sec) SE`rly
swell from Ernesto begins to overspread the region with seas
quickly building to 3-5 ft across our coastal waters by daybreak
Fri with even some 4-6 ft seas likely along the Gulf Stream
waters by Fri morning. With the expectation for a continued
increase in sea heights Fri morning planning on issuing SCA`s
this morning across all coastal waters for 6+ ft seas starting
Fri.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thu...Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to
Bermuda this weekend. Seas will generally be around 2 to 4 ft
through early Friday. Wave guidance suggests long period swells
could impact the waters through Sunday into early Monday. Long
period swells could make inlet conditions particularly dangerous
at times of opposing winds/currents/tides and perpendicular
swell energy (SE/E/NE direction), especially for southeast and
east facing inlets along the NC coast. Have hoisted SCA`s for
the coastal waters beginning Friday morning, with seas peaking
at 8-9 ft Friday night, then only slowly subsiding through this
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 AM Thu...Not much change in the overall trend of things
this morning, though Chinquapin should fall below flood stage
finally by this afternoon. River flooding will continue across many
river basins in Eastern NC, including the Trent, Neuse, and Tar
Rivers as well as several tributaries. River flooding will persist
through the weekend and into next week as the abundant rainfall that
occurred across the NC Piedmont, upstream of the forecast area,
makes its way towards the sounds and coast. It should be noted that
some of the worst river flooding is still yet to come, with some
rivers not cresting until late week or this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 4 AM Thu...Little change in the forecast over the next
few days as Hurricane Ernesto passes well to the east late week
into this weekend. Strong long period swells from distant Ernesto will
combine with high astronomical tides, which will likely lead to
several coastal hazards likely starting Friday and persisting
through the weekend. Dangerous rip currents and rough surf are
expected for the beaches. There is also potential for beach
erosion and ocean overwash (esp. where dune structures are
vulnerable). The greatest window of concern will be Friday
afternoon/evening into early next week. More specifics will be
provided over the next few days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX