280
FXUS62 KMHX 101045
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
645 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into the area today and stall into early
next week with lingering moisture from Debby and saturated soils
continuing to bring periods of heavy rainfall and the threat of
flash flooding. High pressure will build into the area for the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 6 AM Saturday...Upper low remains over the northern Great
Lakes with a cold front stalled over the piedmont. Cyclonic
flow aloft with improving jet dynamic, greater insulation
allowing for MLCAPEs around 2000 J/kg this afternoon, and
abundant moisture with PW values around 2" will allow for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop later
this morning and afternoon. Efficient rainfall rates on top of
already saturated soils will bring a threat of flash flooding
today and have issued a Flood Watch for most of the FA. See the
HYDROLOGY section below for more details. A bit more insulation
will allow temps to warm a bit today and expect highs in the
mid 80s coast and upper 80s to around 90 inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 6 AM Saturday...Showers and storms will continue to
bring the threat of flash flooding into the evening hours but
storms should gradually dissipate with loss of heating. However,
a weak impulse moving through the flow aloft may continue to
bring isolated to scattered showers through the overnight. Warm
and muggy conditions continue with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 5 AM Saturday...Debby`s departure off the northeast coast will
make way for an upper trough to sink south over the eastern US. At
the surface, a cold front will approach the area on Sunday. This
boundary will take its sweet time to push offshore by late Monday
and then become stalled just off the coast Tuesday. This suite of
features will bring shower and thunderstorm chances across the area
through Tuesday. The main concern with this pattern is the
possibility for torrential downpours over already saturated soils,
which could lead to additional flooding issues. Although rainfall
rates won`t be as significant as they were during Debby, Sunday
could bring 1-2" of rain with locally higher amounts. WPC has ENC
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday and a marginal
risk Monday and Tuesday.

Mid-week will host the lowest PoPs we`ve seen in days as high
pressure starts to sink south. Upper troughing, the lingering front
just offshore, and the seabreeze will keep PoPs around 15-30%.
Interaction with this front will also keep our temps a few degrees
cooler than climo with highs in the low 80s across much of the area.

The upper trough begins to depart late week as upper riding takes
over but the seabreeze will keep climo PoPs in the forecast through
the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Sun/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...With abundant moisture in place,
widespread fog and stratus has developed across rtes overnight
with pred LIFR/IFR conditions. Cigs will slowly lift mid to late
morning with VFR conditions returning around mid day. However,
scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this
afternoon bringing heavy rainfall and periods of sub-VFR
conditions. Storm coverage decreases through the overnight but
cannot rule out isolated to scattered storms with a weak impulse
moving across the region. Low stratus is expected to develop
again tonight with highest chances across the coastal plain.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 6 AM Saturday...The pattern remains unsettled, which will
present multiple opportunities for sub-VFR conditions through
the period. Multiple instances of heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
fog, and low status can be expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...A frontal boundary will remain stalled
just to the west of the waters through the short term with
light S to SW winds around 5-15 kt with seas around 3-5 ft.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 6 AM Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through
the period. Sunday will host winds out of the SW around 5-10 kt
with waves around 2-3 ft. 5-10 kt winds become variable on
Monday as a cold front moves in and stalls across the area
Tuesday. Greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
Sunday (60-70%) with decreasing chances through the rest of the
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 630 AM Saturday...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected this afternoon. With already saturated soils from
3-8" if rain already this week and efficient rainfall rates,
flash flooding will continue to be a concern this afternoon and
have issued a flood watch from noon to midnight for all but
Hatteras Island and Ocracoke as most storms are expected to be
over the mainland. The only other exception is Carteret County
which has seen slow moving thunderstorms producing copious
amounts of rain early this morning and flash flooding has
already been occuring, so have the flood watch already in place.

River flooding will continue across many river basins including
the NE Cape Fear, Trent, Neuse, New and Tar Rivers as well as
several tributaries to the rivers through the weekend and into
next week with abundant rain falling will upstream of the FA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-199-203.
     Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ195-196.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...SK/OJC
MARINE...SK/OJC
HYDROLOGY...MHX