762
FXUS62 KMHX 240042
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
842 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through Tuesday with mainly
dry conditions. Potential for thunderstorms returns mid to late
week as high pressure begins to weaken.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Impactful heat and humidity continues

This afternoon, a broad area of ridging at the SFC is centered
over the Southeastern U.S. Within this broad area exists a
weakness in the ridge over the coastal Mid-Atlantic, which has
allowed a weak surface boundary to drop south out of Virginia
into northern NC. The expectation through tonight is that this
boundary will continue to push south. Convergence along this
boundary appears fairly weak right now, but could strengthen
some as it interacts with the sea/bay/river breezes across ENC.
If enough forcing can be realized, isolated showers and
thunderstorms would be possible in what is a strongly unstable
airmass with MLCAPE of 2500-3500j/kg. With ridging overhead, and
a broad area of subsidence, it appears unlikely that deep
convection will be able to develop, but should anything
sustained develop, there would be a short-lived, and isolated,
severe thunderstorm risk. For now, given the above-mentioned
limitations, the forecast will remain dry through tonight.

Meanwhile, light westerly flow ahead of the SFC boundary,
anomalously warm low-level thicknesses, and strong heating has
allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 90s inland, and
near 90 along the coast. These temps combined with dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s has allowed heat indices to reach 100-105
degrees as of 3 pm. Another 1-2 hours of heating should allow
most areas to reach, or exceed, a heat index of 105 degrees, and
a Heat Advisory remains in effect to cover this impact. Near-
record warm lows tonight will add to the impact, offering little
in the way of relief from the heat of the daylight hours.
Because of this, the advisory will continue through the
nighttime hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Dangerous heat expected Tuesday, and the Extreme Heat Watch
   has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning

Tonight`s weak surface boundary will more or less washout or
lift back north. However, prior to that it`s expected that there
will be a drop in dewpoints immediately behind the boundary,
perhaps as "low" as the upper 60s. Dewpoints are then forecast
to rise back into the 70s as southerly flow ensues through the
day. Despite some questions regarding dewpoints on Tuesday, low-
level thicknesses will be even higher on Tuesday compared to
today, which should support highs topping out in the mid to
upper 90s inland and low 90s along the coast. So, even with
slightly lower dewpoints, it`s expected that heat indices will
climb above 110 degrees thanks to the higher air temperatures.
Given the setup, confidence is moderate to high regarding 110+
degree heat indices, and the Excessive Heat Watch has been
upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning for all of ENC.

Like today, there will be a modest cap in place, along with
broad subsidence across the region, and this should limit the
convective potential once again, especially during the daylight
hours. Late in the day, there`s a decent signal for scattered
convection to develop along the higher terrain of the central
Appalachians. Should this occur, some semblance of this activity
could grow upscale and drop SE towards the coast. While it`s
not a great signal locally, there appears to be enough support
to go above blended guidance, and add in a low chance mention of
thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. While the
boundary layer will be diurnally stabilizing, there may still be
some potential for gusty winds with any thunderstorms that
manage to survive to the coast. Right now, the risk of severe
thunderstorms appears low, but something to watch tomorrow
evening/night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...

Key Messages

 - Dangerous heat and humidity lasts through midweek. Heat
   indices are likely to reach 105-115 degrees Tuesday and
   Wednesday afternoons.

 - The heat forecast for late week has turned slightly less
   oppressive, as it looks like the heat ridge across the
   Eastern US will break down faster. Still heat indices will
   reach 100-105 the rest of the week and possibly this weekend.

Wednesday...A very strong upper level ridge will remain mostly
stationary over the region through the end of the week. Beneath
this ridge, low level heights will soar and with very light flow
due to a weak pressure gradient, the entire area (even the
coast) will be well above normal with with some near record
temperatures possible through Wednesday. Highs are expected in
the mid to upper 90s these days, with some locations possibly
hitting 100 degrees. When factoring in the humidity, dangerous
heat conditions will develop each afternoon with heat indices
hitting 105-115 degrees.

Latest forecast trends show the ridge potentially weakening as
early as Wednesday afternoon, which would allow for possibility
of some afternoon/evening thunderstorms. If this occurs,
extreme instability will be present, and there would be some
potential for strong/severe storms.

Thursday through Sunday...An orb of upper level energy will bump
the ridge of high pressure to the west by late this week, which
will not only reduce the low level thicknesses (and high
temperatures) but also introduce a more supportive environment
for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. These will be mostly
airmass storms with little organization, and coverage is
expected to be scattered at best.

Even though heights will be slightly reduced, high temperatures
will be above normal, with highs expected in the low to mid 90s
through this weekend, and heat indices will peak between 100
and 105 each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 830 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours

High pressure sprawled across the region should help to limit
the SHRA and TSRA potential through Tuesday afternoon, and the
TAFs will continue to reflect this. Additionally, the lack of
appreciable low- level moisture should help to keep the sub-VFR
CIG and BR/FG potential low. Of note, a weak surface boundary
will move south through the area this evening and tonight, but
not much of a wind shift is expected.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...By midweek isolated afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are possible, and could bring some restrictions to
terminals if they pass nearby.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday night/...
As of 245 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Good boating conditions continue

High pressure overhead will keep winds relatively light, and
seas are expected to hold at 2-3ft at 8s. High pressure overhead
is also expected to keep the thunderstorm risk low. The one
exception is Tuesday night when the thunderstorm risk may
increase some as inland activity potentially makes a run at the
coastal waters.

LONG TERM /Wednesday though Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Fantastic boating conditions are expected this
week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. The
pressure gradient will remain quite weak through Wednesday,
which will allow sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind
strength and direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts
are expected each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon
and evening to S/SW 10-15 kts in response to a developing sea
breeze. By Thursday, a more consistent pressure gradient will
develop with winds becoming SW at 10-15 kts through Friday.
Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through late week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperature records, and record warm low temperatures at
select climate sites from Monday (6/23) through Wednesday
(6/25).

**Please note...due to a large data gap from 1940-1955, the
Greenville COOP records likely do not reflect the "true" record
high for these days.

Record High Temperatures for Monday (6/23)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         98/1988  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    90/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville**    100/1933  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    96/1998  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         101/1911  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     99/2010  (NCA ASOS)

Record Warm Low Temperatures for Tuesday morning (6/24)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         76/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    79/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Morehead City    75/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          77/2015  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     79/2015  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for Tuesday (6/24)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        100/1944  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    95/1944  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville**    100/2010  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    97/1948  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     98/2010  (NCA ASOS)

Record Warm Low Temperatures for Wednesday morning (6/25)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         75/2011  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    81/2011  (KHSE ASOS)
Morehead City    77/2011  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          75/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     79/2010  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for Wednesday (6/25)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        101/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    96/1952  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville**    100/1921  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    96/1948  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         101/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     98/1981  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-
     203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...RM/SK/SGK
MARINE...RM/SGK
CLIMATE...MHX