![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
280 FXUS62 KMHX 101045 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 645 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move into the area today and stall into early next week with lingering moisture from Debby and saturated soils continuing to bring periods of heavy rainfall and the threat of flash flooding. High pressure will build into the area for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 6 AM Saturday...Upper low remains over the northern Great Lakes with a cold front stalled over the piedmont. Cyclonic flow aloft with improving jet dynamic, greater insulation allowing for MLCAPEs around 2000 J/kg this afternoon, and abundant moisture with PW values around 2" will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop later this morning and afternoon. Efficient rainfall rates on top of already saturated soils will bring a threat of flash flooding today and have issued a Flood Watch for most of the FA. See the HYDROLOGY section below for more details. A bit more insulation will allow temps to warm a bit today and expect highs in the mid 80s coast and upper 80s to around 90 inland. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 6 AM Saturday...Showers and storms will continue to bring the threat of flash flooding into the evening hours but storms should gradually dissipate with loss of heating. However, a weak impulse moving through the flow aloft may continue to bring isolated to scattered showers through the overnight. Warm and muggy conditions continue with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 5 AM Saturday...Debby`s departure off the northeast coast will make way for an upper trough to sink south over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will approach the area on Sunday. This boundary will take its sweet time to push offshore by late Monday and then become stalled just off the coast Tuesday. This suite of features will bring shower and thunderstorm chances across the area through Tuesday. The main concern with this pattern is the possibility for torrential downpours over already saturated soils, which could lead to additional flooding issues. Although rainfall rates won`t be as significant as they were during Debby, Sunday could bring 1-2" of rain with locally higher amounts. WPC has ENC within a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday and a marginal risk Monday and Tuesday. Mid-week will host the lowest PoPs we`ve seen in days as high pressure starts to sink south. Upper troughing, the lingering front just offshore, and the seabreeze will keep PoPs around 15-30%. Interaction with this front will also keep our temps a few degrees cooler than climo with highs in the low 80s across much of the area. The upper trough begins to depart late week as upper riding takes over but the seabreeze will keep climo PoPs in the forecast through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 00z Sun/... As of 630 AM Saturday...With abundant moisture in place, widespread fog and stratus has developed across rtes overnight with pred LIFR/IFR conditions. Cigs will slowly lift mid to late morning with VFR conditions returning around mid day. However, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this afternoon bringing heavy rainfall and periods of sub-VFR conditions. Storm coverage decreases through the overnight but cannot rule out isolated to scattered storms with a weak impulse moving across the region. Low stratus is expected to develop again tonight with highest chances across the coastal plain. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 6 AM Saturday...The pattern remains unsettled, which will present multiple opportunities for sub-VFR conditions through the period. Multiple instances of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, fog, and low status can be expected. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 630 AM Saturday...A frontal boundary will remain stalled just to the west of the waters through the short term with light S to SW winds around 5-15 kt with seas around 3-5 ft. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 6 AM Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period. Sunday will host winds out of the SW around 5-10 kt with waves around 2-3 ft. 5-10 kt winds become variable on Monday as a cold front moves in and stalls across the area Tuesday. Greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday (60-70%) with decreasing chances through the rest of the period. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 630 AM Saturday...Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected this afternoon. With already saturated soils from 3-8" if rain already this week and efficient rainfall rates, flash flooding will continue to be a concern this afternoon and have issued a flood watch from noon to midnight for all but Hatteras Island and Ocracoke as most storms are expected to be over the mainland. The only other exception is Carteret County which has seen slow moving thunderstorms producing copious amounts of rain early this morning and flash flooding has already been occuring, so have the flood watch already in place. River flooding will continue across many river basins including the NE Cape Fear, Trent, Neuse, New and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries to the rivers through the weekend and into next week with abundant rain falling will upstream of the FA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-199-203. Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ195-196. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...OJC AVIATION...SK/OJC MARINE...SK/OJC HYDROLOGY...MHX