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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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479 FXUS62 KMHX 111914 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 314 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall across the region early this week continuing to bring periods of heavy rainfall and the threat of flash flooding as the soils are already saturated. High pressure will build into the area for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sun...Widespread showers and thunderstorms have formed early this afternoon across Eastern NC, and we are expecting another afternoon/evening with heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding. A weak cold front has seeped into the northern portion of NC this afternoon, but will remain effectively stalled through this evening as convection takes over the low level flow. Activity so far has been concentrated along the coast (fueled by the sea breeze), but expect storms to begin to move inland shortly and eventually to the coastal plain by late this afternoon. High rain rates will be prevalent due to the presence of 2.25" PWATS and MLCAPEs of 2500-3000 J/kg, which has the potential to bring a quick onset to flash flooding if it occurs. Tonight, convective activity should quickly diminish with loss of heating, with only widely scattered thunderstorms likely inland. Closer to the coast there will be better chances for showers and storms through the night as the front sinks south into southern NC and stalls. Temperatures will remain warm and muggy with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Sun...The cold front will be stalled across the southern coast tomorrow, with yet another active day on tap. Widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms will develop through the day with the exception of the far northern reaches of the forecast area where drier air behind the front will limit precip coverage. Heavy rain will be the main threat as the high PWAT air remains over most of the area, and flash flooding will be possible due to the exceptionally high rain rates. Temperatures will continue to be below normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Cold front will become stalled just off the coast by early Tuesday. This will bring continued shower and thunderstorm chances across the area through Wednesday until it moves further away from the coast. The main concern with this pattern is the possibility for a few downpours over already saturated soils, which could lead to additional flooding issues. WPC has ENC within a marginal risk Monday and Tuesday. PoPs stick around but will decrease slightly as we progress towards late-week and high pressure sinks south. Upper troughing, the lingering front just offshore, and the seabreeze will provide multiple sources of lift. These showers and thunderstorms, although some downpours are still possible, shouldn`t be nearly as efficient as the ones we`ve had over the past week. This slightly drier air mass with dew points in the 60s will be a welcomed change after multiple days of torrential rain from Debby`s tropical moisture. Interaction with this front will also keep our temps a few degrees cooler than climo with highs in the low 80s across much of the area. The upper trough begins to depart late week as upper riding takes over but the seabreeze will keep climo PoPs in the forecast through the rest of the period. The next frontal system will approach the area over the weekend as a low across the Great Lakes region moves eastward. Focus returns to the Atlantic late week. Guidance is depicting what will likely become Ernesto, but the aforementioned upper trough is forecast to keep this system away from the east coast. Regardless of track, however, impacts in the way of heightened rip current risks and dangerous boating and surf conditions are to be expected. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Monday Afternoon/... As of 3 PM Sun...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are present early this afternoon across Eastern NC. Once again we are expecting scattered to widespread areas of convection to develop shortly which will pose a risk of gusty winds and temporary reductions to visibilities and cloudbases to IFR or MVFR levels. By this evening thunderstorms activity should become widely scattered, and VFR conditions may briefly return. Tonight, abundant low level moisture and weak flow will encourage stratus development with conditions likely falling to MVFR levels by midnight. After midnight fog in addition to low stratus is likely with visibilities mostly 2-4 miles and ceilings falling to 700-1000 ft by early tomorrow morning. IFR conditions are expected to continue until around mid morning similar to the last couple of mornings, with conditions improving to MVFR for the rest of the morning with cloudbases around 2500-3000 ft. LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/... As of 3 PM Sunday...The pattern remains unsettled, which will present multiple opportunities for sub-VFR conditions through the period. Multiple instances of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, fog, and low status can be expected. Eventually by midweek drier and cooler conditions will move in and lead to mostly VFR conditions prevailing. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tomorrow/... As of 3 PM Sun...Outside of convection, which could be widespread at times, favorable marine conditions will exist through tomorrow as a weak cold front moves into the area. The front is currently located along the NOBX and will slowly sag southward tonight and then stall across the southern coastal waters tomorrow afternoon. To the north of the front winds will turn to the NE/N at 5-10 kts, while to the south of the front winds will remain SW at 5-15 kts. Seas are expected to be 2-3 ft through tomorrow. LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period. Tuesday through Thursday will have winds out of the NE around 10-15 kt. Seas remain around 2-3 ft until Thursday afternoon when some 4 footers start to build across the outer central waters. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 3 PM Sunday...Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected again this afternoon. With already saturated soils from 4-10" if rain already this week and efficient rainfall rates, flash flooding will continue to be a concern this afternoon and have issued a flood watch from noon to 10 PM for all but Hatteras Island and Ocracoke as most storms are expected to be over the mainland. River flooding will continue across many river basins including the NE Cape Fear, Trent, Neuse, New and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries to the rivers through the weekend and into next week with abundant rain falling will upstream of the FA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-204-205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...OJC AVIATION...SGK/OJC MARINE...SGK/OJC HYDROLOGY...MHX