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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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800 FXUS62 KMHX 130814 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 414 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the north today. High pressure will then remain over the Eastern Seaboard through the end of the week before a front begins to approach from the west this weekend bringing increasing precipitation chances across the area. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 330 AM Tuesday...As expected with mo clear skies and light to calm winds, patchy fog and low stratus has begun to develop this morning, primarily across the Coastal Plain. Currently not expecting any developing fog to be widespread enough for a dense fog advisory but there could be some isolated patchy dense fog mainly along and west of Hwy 17 this morning before daybreak. Otherwise temps are forecast to get into mid 60s to low 70s this morning across ENC with slightly less oppressive mugginess to start our day today. Any areas of fog should mix out by mid-morning, with several hours of dry conditions expected through early afternoon. By mid to late-afternoon, another shortwave aloft combined with lee troughing at the SFC should support isolated to scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two. Primary focus for initial shower and storm development is forecast to be upstream across central NC, but storms may have a tendency to move east into the coastal plain of ENC thanks to increasing flow aloft. Latest guidance suggests northerly flow this morning becomes more E`rly this afternoon. But, given weak onshore flow today not only will it feel slightly less muggy than it has been the past several days, instability will be lacking across the area as well. Regardless, given the time of year cannot rule out a rumble of thunder this afternoon so kept SChc of thunder in the forecast. Temps today are slightly warmer than the past few days as well given lower forecasted cloud cover with temps getting into the 80s across all of ENC. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Tue...Any leftover shower or thunderstorm activity should quickly dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime heating and the dissipation of surface troughing across the area. With surface high pressure still overhead expecting light winds, mo clear skies, and a dry forecast across ENC. There will be a low end threat for some more patchy fog especially across the Coastal Plain given the good radiational cooling setup but latest guidance keeps fog potential low at best so did not include fog in the forecast for tonight. Lows tonight get into the mid 60s to low 70s once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 4 AM Tuesday...A drying trend will commence mid-week as a cold front offshore slowly sags southward and high pressure builds into the area from the northwest. However, upper trough remains centered over the eastern CONUS with a series of shortwave trough pushing across the area that will aid in initiating isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at times. Greatest chances will be during the afternoon/evening hours when instability is maximized. PWATs lower to below 1.25" on Wednesday so storms will not be the prolific rain makes that we have been experiencing over the past week. Temps will actually be a couple of degrees below normal with highs in the mid 80s and it won`t be quite as oppressive humidity with dew point temps in the mid to upper 60s. The upper trough pushes off the East Coast Thursday and Friday with upper ridging building in from the west. We will be closely monitoring Tropical Cyclone Ernesto, as it moves across the northern Lesser Antilles to east of The Bahamas through the week. While we are not expecting direct impacts from Ernesto at this time, large swells are expected to impact the beaches bringing an increased rip current risk and large surf beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend. Locally, high pressure will continue to dominate across the area and we will finally get a couple of days to dry out. Temps will continue slightly below normal with highs in the mid 80s and dew point temps in the mid 60s. An upper low moves into the Great Lakes Friday into the weekend with an upper trough digging back into the East Coast and a cold front slowly advancing toward the area bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region Saturday through Monday. Seasonable temps continue with highs generally in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 06z Tuesday/... As of 115 AM Tue... Mo clear skies and a mix of VFR and MVFR visibilities are currently noted across ENC this evening. With recent rains across the area, light winds, and mo clear skies, still expect some combo of either low stratus or patchy fog to overspread much of the area along and west of Hwy 17 resulting in at least a general threat for widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings/vis for the remainder of tonight into daybreak across those areas. HREF probs still show a low end threat (20-30%) of LIFR vis but given the recent trends have elected to cap lowest Vis at IFR. Areas east of Hwy 17 likely staying at VFR/MVFR as winds are slightly stronger here thus reducing the patchy fog threat. As we get into the morning on Tue any leftover fog will burn off and a SCT deck of diurnal Cu should gradually overspread the area Tue afternoon but ceilings and vis should become VFR Tue morning and remain VFR through the rest of the period. Think TSRA potential will be very low (<15%) but a few showers could pop up tomorrow afternoon especially across the western TAF sites. Given the lower probability for showers and storms have kept any precip mention out of the TAFs for now. Light winds out of the NE early become slightly more Eerly through the day but are expected to remain AoB 10kt. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 405 AM Tuesday...Chances for sub-VFR conditions will gradually diminish through the week as high pressure builds in and a drying trend develops. Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms chances continue Wednesday that could bring brief sub-VFR conditions. Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday, then unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light winds and good radiational cooling conditions will continue to bring the chance for late night/early morning fog and stratus most mornings, especially given the saturated ground. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday night/... As of 330 AM Tue...Overall rather benign conditions forecast across all waters through the period with high pressure in control of the weather pattern for the next few days. Winds are out of the northeast at 10-15 kts and seas across our coastal waters are currently noted around 2 to 3 ft with lower seas noted across the inland rivers and sounds this morning. Don`t expect much change in the conditions across our waters with 5-15 kt NE-E`rly winds and 2-4 ft seas across our coastal waters into Wed morning. Expecting it to remain mo dry across our waters today and tonight as well with just iso shower or tstm potential though the period. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 410 AM Tuesday...Good boating conditions through much of the week with high pressure building into the area bringing NE winds around 5-15 kt through Friday. Winds begin to veer to E and SE late Friday into Saturday as the high moves offshore, and Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to Bermuda. Seas will generally be around 2 to 3 ft through early Friday but then we will begin to see long period (14-15 second) swells from Ernesto move into the waters late Friday which will build through Saturday. Long period swells could make inlet conditions particularly dangerous at times of opposing winds/currents/tides and perpendicular swell energy, especially for southeast and east facing inlets along the NC coast. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 410 AM Tuesday...Only small changes in the river flood threat as river flooding will continue across many river basins in Eastern NC, including the Trent, Neuse, and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries. River flooding will persist through the weekend and into next week as the abundant rainfall that occurred across the NC Piedmont, upstream of the forecast area, makes its way towards the Sounds and coast. It should be noted that some of the worst river flooding is still yet to come, with some rivers not cresting until late week or this weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...DAG/RCF MARINE...DAG/RCF HYDROLOGY...MHX