800
FXUS62 KMHX 130814
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
414 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north today. High pressure
will then remain over the Eastern Seaboard through the end of
the week before a front begins to approach from the west this
weekend bringing increasing precipitation chances across the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...As expected with mo clear skies and
light to calm winds, patchy fog and low stratus has begun to
develop this morning, primarily across the Coastal Plain.
Currently not expecting any developing fog to be widespread
enough for a dense fog advisory but there could be some isolated
patchy dense fog mainly along and west of Hwy 17 this morning
before daybreak. Otherwise temps are forecast to get into mid
60s to low 70s this morning across ENC with slightly less
oppressive mugginess to start our day today.

Any areas of fog should mix out by mid-morning, with several
hours of dry conditions expected through early afternoon. By mid
to late-afternoon, another shortwave aloft combined with lee
troughing at the SFC should support isolated to scattered
showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two. Primary
focus for initial shower and storm development is forecast to
be upstream across central NC, but storms may have a tendency to
move east into the coastal plain of ENC thanks to increasing
flow aloft. Latest guidance suggests northerly flow this
morning becomes more E`rly this afternoon. But, given weak
onshore flow today not only will it feel slightly less muggy
than it has been the past several days, instability will be
lacking across the area as well. Regardless, given the time of
year cannot rule out a rumble of thunder this afternoon so kept
SChc of thunder in the forecast. Temps today are slightly warmer
than the past few days as well given lower forecasted cloud
cover with temps getting into the 80s across all of ENC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Any leftover shower or thunderstorm activity
should quickly dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime
heating and the dissipation of surface troughing across the
area. With surface high pressure still overhead expecting light
winds, mo clear skies, and a dry forecast across ENC. There will
be a low end threat for some more patchy fog especially across
the Coastal Plain given the good radiational cooling setup but
latest guidance keeps fog potential low at best so did not
include fog in the forecast for tonight. Lows tonight get into
the mid 60s to low 70s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...A drying trend will commence mid-week as a
cold front offshore slowly sags southward and high pressure
builds into the area from the northwest. However, upper trough
remains centered over the eastern CONUS with a series of
shortwave trough pushing across the area that will aid in
initiating isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at
times. Greatest chances will be during the afternoon/evening
hours when instability is maximized. PWATs lower to below 1.25"
on Wednesday so storms will not be the prolific rain makes that
we have been experiencing over the past week. Temps will
actually be a couple of degrees below normal with highs in the
mid 80s and it won`t be quite as oppressive humidity with dew
point temps in the mid to upper 60s.

The upper trough pushes off the East Coast Thursday and Friday
with upper ridging building in from the west. We will be closely
monitoring Tropical Cyclone Ernesto, as it moves across the
northern Lesser Antilles to east of The Bahamas through the
week. While we are not expecting direct impacts from Ernesto at
this time, large swells are expected to impact the beaches
bringing an increased rip current risk and large surf beginning
Friday and continuing through the weekend. Locally, high
pressure will continue to dominate across the area and we will
finally get a couple of days to dry out. Temps will continue
slightly below normal with highs in the mid 80s and dew point
temps in the mid 60s.

An upper low moves into the Great Lakes Friday into the weekend
with an upper trough digging back into the East Coast and a cold
front slowly advancing toward the area bringing increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region Saturday
through Monday. Seasonable temps continue with highs generally
in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 06z Tuesday/...
As of 115 AM Tue... Mo clear skies and a mix of VFR and MVFR
visibilities are currently noted across ENC this evening. With
recent rains across the area, light winds, and mo clear skies,
still expect some combo of either low stratus or patchy fog to
overspread much of the area along and west of Hwy 17 resulting
in at least a general threat for widespread MVFR to IFR
ceilings/vis for the remainder of tonight into daybreak across
those areas. HREF probs still show a low end threat (20-30%) of
LIFR vis but given the recent trends have elected to cap lowest
Vis at IFR. Areas east of Hwy 17 likely staying at VFR/MVFR as
winds are slightly stronger here thus reducing the patchy fog
threat. As we get into the morning on Tue any leftover fog will
burn off and a SCT deck of diurnal Cu should gradually
overspread the area Tue afternoon but ceilings and vis should
become VFR Tue morning and remain VFR through the rest of the
period. Think TSRA potential will be very low (<15%) but a few
showers could pop up tomorrow afternoon especially across the
western TAF sites. Given the lower probability for showers and
storms have kept any precip mention out of the TAFs for now.
Light winds out of the NE early become slightly more Eerly
through the day but are expected to remain AoB 10kt.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 405 AM Tuesday...Chances for sub-VFR conditions will
gradually diminish through the week as high pressure builds in
and a drying trend develops. Isolated/scattered showers and
thunderstorms chances continue Wednesday that could bring brief
sub-VFR conditions. Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday,
then unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light winds and
good radiational cooling conditions will continue to bring the
chance for late night/early morning fog and stratus most
mornings, especially given the saturated ground.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday night/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Overall rather benign conditions forecast
across all waters through the period with high pressure in
control of the weather pattern for the next few days. Winds are
out of the northeast at 10-15 kts and seas across our coastal
waters are currently noted around 2 to 3 ft with lower seas
noted across the inland rivers and sounds this morning. Don`t
expect much change in the conditions across our waters with
5-15 kt NE-E`rly winds and 2-4 ft seas across our coastal waters
into Wed morning. Expecting it to remain mo dry across our
waters today and tonight as well with just iso shower or tstm
potential though the period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 410 AM Tuesday...Good boating conditions through much of
the week with high pressure building into the area bringing NE
winds around 5-15 kt through Friday. Winds begin to veer to E
and SE late Friday into Saturday as the high moves offshore, and
Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to Bermuda. Seas will
generally be around 2 to 3 ft through early Friday but then we
will begin to see long period (14-15 second) swells from
Ernesto move into the waters late Friday which will build
through Saturday. Long period swells could make inlet conditions
particularly dangerous at times of opposing winds/currents/tides
and perpendicular swell energy, especially for southeast and
east facing inlets along the NC coast.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 410 AM Tuesday...Only small changes in the river flood
threat as river flooding will continue across many river basins
in Eastern NC, including the Trent, Neuse, and Tar Rivers as
well as several tributaries. River flooding will persist through
the weekend and into next week as the abundant rainfall that
occurred across the NC Piedmont, upstream of the forecast area,
makes its way towards the Sounds and coast. It should be noted
that some of the worst river flooding is still yet to come, with
some rivers not cresting until late week or this weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/RCF
MARINE...DAG/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX