Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
404 FXUS62 KMHX 292320 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 720 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Typical summertime pattern will remain in place over the next couple of days, with high pressure offshore and troughing inland. The next frontal system approaches the east coast by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 720 PM Sunday... Key Messages - Convection comes to an early end tonight, giving way to clear and warm conditions. Shallow fog possible early Mon morning. Weak and short-lived convective activity from this afternoon is quickly dying off per radar and GOES satellite trends, and trimmed back near-term PoPs to account for this trend. Warm and dry conditions once again expected for ENC. Like this morning, some spotty shallow fog is possible in usually favored areas but will be of minimal impact. Lows tonight once again in the 70s inland, except near 80 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 200 PM Sunday... Key Messages - Typical summertime temperatures and thunderstorm chances continue The overall synoptic pattern doesn`t look to change much as we kick off the start of the July 4th holiday week. This should lead to another day of near normal temperatures and humidity, with heat indices of 100-105 degrees, and isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Of note, guidance suggests somewhat lower convergence across the area, and along the seabreeze, compared to today, and I expect the coverage to follow suite. I would also expect a lowered risk of pulse severe convection, as the risk of deep, sustained convection appears lower. One subtle change on Monday is a regional tightening of the pressure gradient as a weak frontal boundary begins to approach the U.S. East Coast. This tightened gradient should help boost winds over waterways and for areas along the coast. While not drastically higher, the increased wind will probably be noticeable at area beaches and for boaters. With the increase in winds, lows Monday night are expected to be very warm, with lows near 80 along the coast, and upper 70s inland. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 5 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Hot conditions continue with heat indices 100-105F Tuesday afternoon - Frontal system approaching the eastern seaboard Tuesday- Wednesday increases rain chances mid-week, and could bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical summertime pattern with sea breeze convection and warmer temps Ridging strengthens offshore, as highs persist in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely through Tuesday. The cumulative effect of several days with high heat indices (and little relief at night) is something for those working or spending much time outside to consider as they make preparations for the heat. On Tuesday, a cold front should be progressing through western and central NC. Along this front there will be 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over central NC, with almost 20kt of deep layer shear and PWATs well above climo. Long skinny CAPE profiles with enough shear for organized storm development will result in heavy rain potential with maybe some stronger wind gusts as well. Most of the frontal precip Tuesday should remain to our west, maybe reaching our western most coastal plain counties in the evening. With better upper level support to the north and west and unimpressive shear paired with weaker than recently seen CAPEs, at this point not too concerned about the severe potential Tuesday evening for our CWA, although SPC does clip our western zones in a marginal (1/5) risk for Tuesday. Meanwhile, Tuesday a tightened pressure gradient with the high offshore and the front approaching from the west will result in a very gusty day along the coast. With a loss of daytime heating Tuesday night, storm coverage and intensity is expected to lessen as the front slowly shifts east. Wednesday, front comes to a halt over eastern NC, and this will be the day to watch out for in our CWA should the current trend hold. Lesser coverage and intensity of precip in the morning will quickly reinvigorate once we get some daytime heating in the late morning and afternoon hours. Moist, skinny CAPE profiles (1000-2000 J/kg) and slow storm motion along a stationary boundary is a great setup for heavy rain and flash flooding concerns Wednesday PM. WPC has us in a day 4 (Wednesday) marginal (1/5) ERO generally along and east of hwy 17, where instability along and east of the stalled front is the best. Severe potential remains limited with weaker shear and profiles not really conducive to microbursts. Long range ensemble probs are generally suggesting 1-2" of rain over our CWA, but at this point these estimates hold little value given the coarse nature of the models. Over the coming days once more high-rest guidance is available the envelope of QPF ranges will be more apparent. Front may linger along the coast Thursday as it slowly moves east, keeping chc PoPs in place. Meanwhile, a weak low may form up along the stalled boundary as it encounters warmer gulf stream waters, as the baroclinic zone provides enough cyclogenesis. As the weak low quickly progresses N and E away from our coast, high pressure builds in with a more typical summertime pattern returning to ENC to end the work week with sea breeze convection and warm temps. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18z Monday/... As of 720 PM Sunday... Key Messages - Low risk for sub VFR VIS tonight (10% chance) Convection quickly coming to an end around terminals and expect all sites to be free and clear of precip starting at 00z. Watching a narrow band of sct MVFR cigs developing along the Crystal Coast, but think this will scatter out with gradual cooling. LAMP guidance remains highly pessimistic on fog chances overnight at less than 10%, but OAJ has a history of seeing shallow fog in marginal conditions and Mon morning may not be an exception. Confidence too low to mention in 00z TAF cycle for now. Typical summertime pattern returns tomorrow in prevailing VFR conditions, but tstorm coverage looks more isolated than today and held off on PROB30s for now. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 530 AM Sunday...Tuesday through Thursday a stalled cold front will be impacting the region, bringing chances for sub-VFR ceilings, heavy rain, and tstorms. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday night/... As of 200 PM Sunday... Key Messages - Typical summertime boating conditions through early Monday - Winds and seas begin to build late Monday into Monday night Typical summertime boating conditions are expected through early Monday, with scattered thunderstorms over the inland rivers and sounds during the day, transitioning back offshore by tonight. South to southwesterly winds of 10-20kt will be common, with seas of 2-4 ft. Conditions begin to change on Monday as a weak cold front begins to approach the Eastern U.S. from the west. This should enhance the summertime thermal gradient, leading to an increased risk of 25kt winds for a portion of the ENC waters, especially Monday afternoon through Monday night. Marine headlines may eventually be needed should guidance continue to show a strong signal for 25kt winds. With the increased winds, seas are expected to build to 3-5 ft by Monday evening. LONG TERM /Tuesday though Friday/... As of 530 AM Sunday... Key Messages: - Strong wind gusts 15-30kt and seas building to 4-7 ft along waters Tuesday through Tuesday night - Heavy rain and tstorms expected to slowly move through the region Tuesday night through Wednesday Tuesday pressure gradient tightens with high strengthening offshore and approaching cold front, and wind gusts pick up to become 15-30kt out of the S/SW and seas respond to be 4-7 ft. Trended winds up by near 5 kts Tuesday night with this update, well above NBM, with ensemble guidance and deterministic models all keying in on stronger wind gusts. Of note, ECMWF ensemble guidance gives a 20-30% chance of gale force gusts developing along the Pamlico Sound Tuesday night. Winds die down Wednesday as stalled front is overhead, but this brings heavy rain and thunderstorms with it. Thursday PM precip is finally expected to shift well offshore, and high pressure builds in bringing more pleasant conditions beyond Thursday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM/MS SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...MS/RJ MARINE...RM/RJ