267
FXUS62 KMHX 172031
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
431 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure has shifted offshore and a cold front is
approaching from the west. The cold front will move across the
Carolinas Sunday into Monday bringing our next threat for
unsettled, and potentially severe, weather to the area. Swell
from distant Hurricane Ernesto will continue impacting the coast
through the weekend, bringing an elevated rip current risk and
minor coastal flood threat. High pressure then builds in from
the north and west next week once again bringing fair weather to
ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4 PM Saturday...High pressure has moved offshore today
and a potent cold front is making its way across the Ohio River
Valley. An isolated shower across the inner coastal plain and
northern tier of the FA cannot be ruled out this afternoon and
evening, but most areas should remain dry until after midnight.
Late tonight, a weak mid-level disturbance could trigger
isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows will reach the lower
70s inland and mid 70s at the beaches.

Coastal hazards from Ernesto continue for ENC`s entire coastline.
See the COASTAL FLOODING section for details.

River flooding from Debby is ongoing in some areas but all
rivers have crested as of today. For more details, see the
HYDROLOGY section.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 4 PM Saturday...A chance for severe weather is on the
table tomorrow as a shortwave pushes a cold front towards ENC.
There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day, but chances will increase as the front
enters the CWA from the west later in the afternoon/evening.
Daytime heating sending Ts into the low 90s and moist southwesterly
flow allowing Tds to reach the mid to upper 70s will create a
juicy environment that could generate strong to severe
thunderstorms across the area. The best chance for severe
storms will be west of HWY 17 where the event will start with a
multicellular storm mode. This area has been highlighted with a
Slight Risk (Level 2/5) from SPC. As the front progresses
eastward, storms will likely congeal into a QLCS and race
towards the coast, eventually making it offshore after
midnight. The main threats with this event are damaging wind
gusts and heavy rainfall, but the progressive nature of this
system should mostly preclude any flooding threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sat...A severe risk is in play for Sunday, with
more unsettled weather with showers and storms to start the
week, then dry and cool for mid to late week.

Monday...Upr trough remains west of the region with the front
stalling through Monday. Therefore, chances for precip cont, and
have cont to advertise 40-50% pops during the afternoon hours.
Severe threat appears quite a bit lower, but cannot rule out a
few storms per instability still in place. Highs cont warm in
the mid to upper 80s.

Tuesday through Friday...Cold front expected to push through,
thus precip chances wane and mostly dry and cooler conditions
are expected. Dropped the 20-30% chc of rain that was
advertised, and now a dry forecast Tue and beyond. Temps drop
back down to below climo, and TD`s plummet through the 60s and
into the upper 50s. This will yield a fantastic airmass for mid
August, with highs in the low 80s, and lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s. GFS guidance has widespread lows in the 50s Wed and Thu
mornings inland. By Friday, the NNE flow becomes easterly, with
some shallow moisture and clouds returning. Have introduced
small pops (20-30%) in the form of a few showers possibly
migrating wwrd and off the Atlantic by Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 1:30 PM Saturday...Predominantly VFR conditions are
expected until about midnight. The overnight hours will present
an opportunity for fog and low stratus, but confidence is
somewhat low for a few reasons. First, the winds are expected
to remain around 5 kt out of the south. This would keep us mixed
enough to prevent fog development, but any decoupling would be
problematic. Second, some guidance is hinting at low-end MVFR
to IFR ceilings between 06-12Z, but low-level cloud cover may
not be great enough to generate broken ceilings. HREF guidance
is showing a 50-60% chance of broken clouds below 5kt during
this time frame. Low stratus seems more probable than fog given
the overnight wind forecast, but either is possible.

Tomorrow, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible east of HWY 17 in the morning but will become more
widespread during afternoon heating and later tomorrow evening.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Unsettled weather returns late in the
weekend in the form of showers and storms. Could be some severe
storms very late afternoon Sun into Sun evening, with some
strong wind gusts possible along with brief reductions in vsby
to sub VFR. Gusty sswrly winds on Sunday ahead of the front with
speeds up to 20 kt possible. Another chc for some showers on
Mon, then cold front will move through by Tue bringing dry
weather back to ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 4 PM Saturday...

 - Ernesto swell will continue to impact the coastal waters
   through Sunday night

Hazardous marine conditions will continue as long period swell
from distant Hurricane Ernesto impacts the waters of NC. SCAs
remain in effect for all of the coastal waters, Pamlico Sound,
Croatan Sound, and Roanoke Sound through the weekend. 10-15 kt
SW winds tonight will become 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
tomorrow.

Current obs are showing 3-6 ft seas with the expectation of them
rebuilding to 6-7 ft tomorrow. Periods will be 12-13 seconds
through tonight and 11-12 seconds tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to
Bermuda this weekend. Wave guidance suggests long period swells
will impact the waters into Monday as Ernesto only slowly moves
northward. The long period swells could make inlet conditions
particularly dangerous at times of opposing winds/currents/tides
and perpendicular swell energy (SE/E/NE direction), especially
for east facing inlets along the NC coast. The large swells
finally subside later Mon.

Sswrly winds inc Sun afternoon and evening ahead of approaching
cold front, with winds of 15-25 kt expected for
Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. May need SCA`s hoisted for these
zones with subsequent forecast updates. Swrly winds diminish
some by Mon, then turn nw Tue, and N to NE Wed into Thu, with
speeds of 10-15 kt expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 PM Saturday...All rivers have crested and are falling as
of this afternoon. Flooding along the Neuse, Tar, and Contentnea
is ongoing but conditions will continue to improve over the
coming days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 4 PM Saturday...Powerful long period swells from distant
Ernesto are combining with high astronomical tides and leading
to several coastal hazards, which will persist through the
weekend. Dangerous rip currents and rough surf are expected for
the beaches from Duck to Cape Lookout. There is also potential
for beach erosion and ocean overwash (esp. where dune structures
are vulnerable). The greatest window of concern will be around
the times of high into Monday. A High Surf Advisory is in effect
from Duck to Cape Lookout for dangerous breaking waves of 5-8
ft. In addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from
Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout for 1-2 feet of inundation.
Vulnerable dune structures along Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands
will be most susceptible to impacts from beach erosion and ocean
overwash.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204-
     205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204-205.
     High Surf Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ203.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday
     night for AMZ135-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...OJC/TL
MARINE...OJC/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX