465
FXUS62 KMHX 212333
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
733 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will continue to meander across the
Carolinas through the week and be the catalyst for a prolonged
period of unsettled weather. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening
times.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM Sun...Considerably less convective coverage across
the region compared to yesterday, with only activity being
driven primarily by the diurnal seabreeze and outflow from prior
convection. Much weaker shear points to this threat waning with
loss of heating, and trimmed back PoPs quite a bit from the
prior forecast. Still watching the potential for another wave of
activity to lift across the Carolinas from the southwest tonight
as weak shortwave energy traverses the area, but latest guidance
has bulk of this activity passing along and west of I-95.
Additionally, also trimmed back PoPs along the coast as
guidance is typically too aggressive in offshore coverage. Near-
climo lows generally low/mid 70s interior to mid/upr 70s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sun...Chances for showers and storms cont on Mon.
Highest chances will be ongoing for the coastal counties in the
AM, then translating inland with afternoon sea-breeze
progression. Again, cannot rule out some bouts of heavy rain and
localized flooding in more organized heavier cells. Warm cloud
layer persists with weak shear, so little chance of severe, but
cannot rule out some iso gustier downburst winds. Highs in the
85-90 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Key message: Not much has changed in the
forecast of the overall synoptic pattern which will result in
unsettled weather with periods of showers and thunderstorms
with torrential downpours. The pattern is expected to persist
through the upcoming week as very moist southerly flow
continues and a wavy, weak front(s) persists over/near eastern
NC through the period.

Mon night through Saturday...No end in sight for the unsettled,
wet period that started mid last week. A very moist airmass
combined with the proximity to a weak front/boundary, and weak
shortwaves emanating out of the Great Lakes-Central US mid level
trough will lead to an above climo chance for rain each day in
the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The
showers and storms will have torrential downpours with PW
values remaining 2" or higher through the period. This will
likely result in several inches of rainfall by late next week.
Frequent downpours will produce localized Flash Flood issues in
urban and poor drainage areas. PoPs were lowered from the too
high NBM which has categorical PoPs (>= 80%) through much of the
period. We prefer to keep PoPs in the chance to low end likely
(40-70%) which is still above climo (30-40%). High temps will
run at or just slightly below normal, while lows will be
slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Tues/...
As of 735 PM Sun...Scattered convective activity ongoing around
all terminals except OAJ as sea breeze pushes northward. VFR
conditions prevail and will continue to do so through most of
the night, although convective activity will likely cease by
02z. There is a weak signal for brief patchy fog at all locales,
although its formation is uncertain with increasing cloud cover
from the west. Monday will likely start with a few hours of MVFR
as cu field develops early while LCLs are under 3kft, but will
return to VFR by midday. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms, once again posing a risk of torrential rainfall,
is likely tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 220 AM Sun...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers
and storms will continue through the next week with occasional
sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus
clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas
that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15
kts through much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 PM Sun...Light winds acrs the waters as thermal
gradient is very weak today (sfc land temps = sea sfc temps).
The winds will remain light, only 5-10 kt through tonight and
seas in the 2-4 ft range. The main boating hazard through
tonight will continue to be the risk of thunderstorms, esp late
tonight as Gulf Stream may become active. Winds on Mon inc a
bit, and should see 15 to ocnl 20 kt by late in the afternoon
with tightening thermal gradient. TS threat in the morning
should translate inland with the sea breeze migrating inland
through the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sun...The flow is expected to remain S/SW 10-20 kt
all waters through the period outside of convection. Seas will
be 2-4 ft near shore and 3-5 ft at times offshore through the
period. Shower and storm chances are forecast to be high through
late next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 230 PM Sun...The forecast is for unsettled, wet
conditions to continue through the upcoming week with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially
during the afternoon and evenings. While there is considerable
uncertainty in exact details on storm coverage each day, soil
moisture levels continue to increase due to heavy rains from the
previous couple of days such that any additional heavy rains
would runoff more easily and result in local flooding. In
addition with PW values expected to continue seasonally high
(>=2"), locally heavy rain amounts will continue to be a threat
over the next several days. There is the potential for storms to
produce 2-3" in an hour with locally higher amounts which would
be enough generate urban/poor drainage flooding.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/MS
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/SGK
AVIATION...JME/MS
MARINE...JME/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX