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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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542 FXUS62 KMHX 131719 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 119 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will remain stalled across the region through today with moist southerly flow bringing periods of rain. The front will dissipate early next week with hot and humid conditions and heat indices in excess of 105 degrees returning. && .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 1 PM Sat...Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity continues to persist this afternoon across ENC with chances gradually diminishing towards sunset. Otherwise not much change in the forecast on this update. Prev disc...As of 4 AM Sat...Front remains stalled to our west today with sct to numerous showers and occasional thunderstorms. Moisture transport will be weaker today as low- level flow veers more southwesterly than south, and CAMs are advertising a more typical summertime regime with scattered convection developing along the front in the afternoon and weakening around sunset. The airmass itself changes little as PWATs continue to sit north of 2", so a torrential rainfall risk continues for yet another day, though the lesser coverage will preclude any additional flood watches. Still may see some localized flooding where some heavier showers and storms set up. Widespread cloud cover will keep highs in the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 4 AM Sat...Showers come to an end quickly with loss of diurnal heating, and a mainly dry fcst overnight. Can`t rule out some sct showers along the coast, esp OBX, with some thunder possible as well, though bulk of the region will be dry. Warm and very muggy with lows in the mid/upr 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 4 AM Sat... -Sunday will begin a period of drier weather and hot and humid conditions. Sunday through Wednesday heat indices of 105-110 degrees are possible each day. Tuesday expected to be the hottest day. Some relief for the end of the week. -Wet again for the back half of the week as rain chances begin to ramp up on Wednesday and remain high through Friday. Beginning Sunday extreme heat will become the biggest threat in the forecast. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 90s inland with upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Heat index values will push or exceed 105 degrees each day in most locations except the extreme coastal areas. At this point, Tuesday looks like the hottest day with heat index values approaching 110 degrees which is excessive heat warning criteria. More certainty for the back end of the week than last night at this time as solutions are starting to settle on a front moving into eastern NC and stalling for the back end of the week and into next weekend. PW values return to greater than 2 inches on Wednesday and remain there through the forecast period. The greatest instability will be on Wednesday when the combination of still higher temperatures and increased moisture yields surface based CAPE Values between 1000-2000 J/Kg. Shear however will be lacking so any thunder will be instability driven. After Wednesday temperatures cool enough to reduce CAPE values some and shear remains weak. Therefore once again heavy rain will be the greatest threat during this period. Temps during this time will moderate into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Sun morning/... As of 115 PM Sat...Conditions have become a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings this afternoon as lower clouds and scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms persist across ENC. Expect continued scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity to persist over the next several hours before diminishing as daytime heating ends. Have included VCTS across ISO/PGV TAF sites for the next 2-3 hours given current radar trends and just VCSH across OAJ/EWN. Currently not enough coverage to preclude more than a vicinity mention. Otherwise, expect any ongoing MVFR ceilings to finally raise to VFR around 4-6kft this afternoon. As we get into tonight clouds look to scatter out and become more high based with ceilings moving above 10 kft tonight. However patchy fog may begin to develop with Hi-res model suite suggesting areas around PGV/ISO seeing some reduction in visibility. Given HREF probs of 20-40% have elected to leave fog out of the TAF`s for now but it could be included in future TAFs. If the area does see patchy fog it would most likely occur after 06Z and dissipate around 12Z. Expect VFR conditions and light winds through the remainder of the TAF period barring any fog development. LONG TERM /Sunday afternoon through Wed/... A drier period for much of the aviation long term with predominately VFR conditions. Exceptions to this could be with overnight fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts through much of the period. Rain chances will increase on Wednesday and along with it the chance for sub-VFR periods. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 4 AM Sat...Sswrly flow of 15-25 kt this morning will diminish to below SCA, with seas following suite, by late afternoon, and thus ended SCA`s by 21z. Sct showers and storms will cont today, becoming more iso tonight. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/... Fairly quiet start to the long term for Marine conditions with southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts. For the coastal waters seas should remain between 3-4 feet through much of the long term before rising to 5 feet near the end of the week. Rain chances will increase from Wednesday through the end of the week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL/RCF SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...RTE AVIATION...RTE/RCF MARINE...RTE/TL