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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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107 FXUS66 KMFR 132209 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 309 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .DISCUSSION...An upper level trough continues to dominate the weather in the short term...with temperatures below normal. Today is the more benign of the weather days through the end of the work week...with no chance of precipitation. Things change tomorrow as an upper low off the OR coast moves almost due east early Wednesday morning...with the low moving onshore Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Our main concern with this low coming onshore will be the chance for thunderstorms...especially the potential for a nocturnal event. There are some disagreements with the short term models as far as location/intensity of showers and the possibility of thunderstorms...but as of now...it looks like showers will develop between 00z and 03z Thursday in central Siskiyou county...moving northeast into Lake and Klamath counties into Thursday morning. A few of the short term models are showing showers in central Jackson county Wednesday night...generally between 03z and 06z...however we have left thunder out of that area for now. The better chance for thunderstorms arrives to the area on Thursday afternoon and evening and the low moves directly over OR. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in Klamath county around 21z...moving northeast into Lake county...and especially the northern half of Lake county by the late afternoon/early evening hours. The thunderstorm threat moves out of the area during the overnight hours on Thursday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast Friday into the weekend and early next week as an upper low sits off the Pac NW. Some clusters indicate that the upper low will move closer onshore...bringing showers and cooler temps...while others show the low retrograding...bringing us dry and slightly warmer weather. Please continue to monitor the forecast for the latest information. -Riley && .FIRE WEATHER...Issued 200 PM Tuesday August 13, 2024...Temperatures will trend cooler through next week with increasing onshore flow, improving humidities, and breezy afternoon winds as upper level troughing settles in and remains over the Pacific Northwest. Another relatively strong marine push is expected tonight into tomorrow, with extensive stratus and fog decks west of the Cascades that may push into the Umpqua Basin by daybreak Tuesday. Afternoon breezes could be gusty in the afternoon, especially west of the Cascades. Despite these winds, rising humidities should keep us well outside of any critical thresholds. With the trough remaining overhead through the week, we can not completely rule out additional afternoon convection, particularly tomorrow and especially Thursday afternoons and evenings as additional shortwaves pass through the region. Isolated storms are possible over much of northern California and along and east of the Cascades late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Then, on Thursday, the thunderstorm coverage begins to push eastward, with scattered thunderstorm chances possible Thursday afternoon for portions of northern 624 and 625 largely north of 140 and east of highway 95, but it does include portions northern Klamath County to include Chemult. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Wednesday through Thursday for the thunderstorm chances in northern zones 624 and 625 to include the Warner Peak Fire. Models are showing the potential for a much stronger, broader trough arriving and setting up over or very near the area late this week into this weekend. This will maintain our cooler temperatures and higher humidities, and may also produce more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. While wetting rains are very unlikely, we will keep a close eye on how the system develops, as cooler temperatures, higher humidities, and even a small amount of rain will be very welcome to fire concerns. - BPN/Hermansen && .AVIATION...13/18Z TAFS...Generally light winds expected at the TAF sites...except KLMT where occasional wind gusts to 15 to 20 kts will be possible this afternoon. Marine stratus will return this evening around 08z...with IFR cigs and vis. A few short term models are showing a stratus return earlier than that...so confidence is low on exact timing. Inland areas will mostly be VFR through the TAF period. Smoke from the eastern Douglas county area may blow moderate to heavy smoke west over northern Lake and Klamath counties, and light to moderate smoke will drift to the south. Some of this smoke may reach Klamath Falls early Wednesday morning and could impact airport visibilities, but smoke models suggest only light amounts of smoke will reach that far south. -Riley/TAD && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM Tuesday, August 13, 2024...Relatively calm conditions will continue for the next several days. Winds and seas will remain low through Thursday morning. North winds will increase some Thursday afternoon and lasting into Friday. However they are likely to remain below small craft. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for ORZ623>625. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$