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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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330 FXUS62 KMFL 141335 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 935 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 915 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Skies remain mostly clear across South Florida which should warm most of the area above Heat Advisory criteria by the next hour or so. Some very localized portions of South Florida may briefly reach Excessive Heat Warning criteria (particularly interior locations) but will be holding with the existing Heat Advisory for this update as any heat index values above 110 should be somewhat brief and isolated. Internal probabilistic guidance pegs the probability of reaching 110 or higher heat index values at 30% with highest probs in Hendry, Glades and Collier counties. East coast counties remain around 10% or less. Some areas will get a bit of relief from sea breeze showers and thunderstorms as well. Nonetheless, quite a hazardous day in terms of heat regardless and everyone should be doing their best to stay hydrated as this is the best way to prevent heat-related illness. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Upper-level ridging will begin to break down today in response to an amplifying trough expanding across the eastern US and western Atlantic. This will allow for an associated frontal boundary to slink across northern Florida today, then drop southward on Thursday. Moisture advection will increase as a result, as winds shift from north-northeast, potentially resulting in increased chances for storm coverage Wednesday and Thursday (50-60% chance). The best chances for convective initiation will be along sea breeze boundary collisions over the interior. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon. That, combined with the enhanced low-level moisture, will once again result in heat indices reaching the 105-110 degree range during the early afternoon period for much of the area. As such, a Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM. && .LONG TERM...Collier and Palm Beach County (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The weak, diffuse boundary may linger across central/South Florida on Friday, promoting continued moisture advection and enhanced chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region. Conditions begin to improve behind this boundary as drier air filters in over the region over the weekend resulting in lower PoPs and dew points. This should provide some relief from the oppressive heat of the past week, with high temps in the low 90s and peak heat indices in the upper 90s and lower 100s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 649 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Generally VFR with light and variable wind through the early AM. Sea breeze development is forecast with an onshore flow developing at most sites by late morning/early afternoon and an increase in convective activity. Sub-VFR possible at terminals impacted by showers or thunderstorms later today. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail across the Atlantic local waters through Thursday, while westerly- northwesterly winds will materialize across the Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 94 80 93 80 / 50 30 80 40 West Kendall 95 77 94 77 / 60 30 80 40 Opa-Locka 95 80 94 79 / 50 30 80 30 Homestead 93 78 92 78 / 60 30 70 40 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 92 80 / 50 30 70 30 N Ft Lauderdale 94 80 92 80 / 50 30 70 30 Pembroke Pines 97 80 96 80 / 50 30 70 30 West Palm Beach 95 80 92 79 / 50 30 70 30 Boca Raton 95 80 93 79 / 50 30 70 30 Naples 92 80 92 77 / 40 30 70 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...Rizzuto