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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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856 FXUS62 KMFL 200654 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 254 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A typical easterly to southeasterly regime is expected to continue through the weekend as high pressure persists across the western Atlantic. PWAT values will remain in the 1.8 to 2 inch range as the southeasterly flow maintains moisture throughout the lower to middle atmosphere. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along sea breeze and outflow boundaries this afternoon, becoming scattered through the early evening hours. The highest coverage will generally be over the inland and Gulf Coast areas. The majority of thunderstorms are expected to be typical summertime pulse storms, although a strong storm cannot be completely ruled out. Primary threats with and stronger cell would be strong winds and torrential downpours. A plume of Saharan dust is progged to overspread the area beginning this afternoon and will linger through the weekend which may act to suppress thunderstorm coverage. High temps will be in the low to mid 90s which combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, will lead to continued heat indices reaching hazardous levels during the day. A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida until 6 PM Sunday for max heat indices of 105-110 degrees. Low temps tonight will range from the middle 70s around the lake to lower 80s close to the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure is expected to prevail through the end of the weekend heading into early next week. The aforementioned plume of Saharan dust will washout over the area and continue to head northward as deep tropical moisture advects across the region through the day on Monday with PWATs spiking up to the 2.2 to 2.4 inch range. This will help to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity especially on Sunday night into Monday morning as this pushes through. With lack of mid to upper level support, strong thunderstorm development chances will remain low and the main concern will be the potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding. With easterly to southeasterly flow expected to continue through the majority of the long term period, greatest shower and thunderstorm coverage can be expected over interior and southwest portions of the area. A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) will slowly approach South Florida through the period. At this time, this feature remains northeast of the Bahamas and a fair amount of disagreement remains regarding the timing of it. This feature could provide extra synoptic support for showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the upcoming week. While the exact details still remain uncertain, strong thunderstorm development will remain possible with gusty winds and heavy downpours along with the potential of localized flooding as this TUTT approaches and moves through the region. The latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models and increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms for the middle to end of the week. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures will generally remain in the lower to mid 90s each day through middle to end of the week. Temperatures through the long term will remain quite warm with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Heat indices will reach the 100-110 degree range each afternoon and Heat Advisories are highly likely. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 VFR conditions may be MVFR at times due to SCT SHRA/TSRA this morning along the Atlantic coast. Short-fused TEMPOs cannot be ruled out for CIG/VIS restrictions as well. Winds generally light/vrb BCMG ESE around 10 kt by mid morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 East to southeast winds will continue over South Florida waters through this weekend and into next week due to the high pressure over the Western Atlantic waters remaining nearly stationary. Wind speeds will generally be gentle to moderate each day. Seas of 1-3 ft in the Atlantic and 2 ft or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day through the next week which may result in locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Increasing east to southeast flow this weekend will result in an elevated rip current risk for the Atlantic beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 82 92 81 / 40 10 70 60 West Kendall 93 80 92 78 / 50 10 70 50 Opa-Locka 94 82 93 80 / 40 10 70 50 Homestead 92 81 90 80 / 40 10 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 91 82 90 80 / 40 10 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 92 82 91 81 / 40 10 70 50 Pembroke Pines 95 82 94 81 / 40 10 70 50 West Palm Beach 92 80 92 80 / 50 10 60 30 Boca Raton 92 81 91 80 / 50 10 60 50 Naples 93 77 94 78 / 70 20 70 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...SRB