Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
325 FXUS62 KMFL 150505 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 105 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 South Florida is under the influence of a surface ridge of high pressure emanating from the Atlantic. Ample tropical moisture may be replaced by a Saharan air layer entering from the east. The easterly to southeasterly flow will be maintained through Tuesday with the Atlantic sea breeze favored and the Gulf sea breeze pinned. Thus, the convective focus will be inland and over Southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. The SAL may act to limit some coverage over eastern portions of South Florida but activity over Southwest Florida should still be able flourish. Temperatures this afternoon and evening will continue to be stifling. Heat Advisory remains in place through 6 PM and overnight temperatures along the east coast metro areas may not fall below 80. Widespread lower to mid 90s return on Monday with heat index values in the triple digits that may necessitate another Heat Advisory. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The area will remain positioned along the western periphery of the broad subtropical ridge through most of the upcoming week. Light to moderate easterly low-lvl flow will prevail through most of the extended period, with the mean flow veering more southeasterly at times late this week. Guidance continues to shift the moisture envelope associated with the early-week tropical wave southward and thus trimmed PoPs and QPF for Tuesday. Drier air filtering in from the east behind the wave Tuesday combined with the overall easterly regime should focus the best rain chances over SW Florida. The drier airmass (PWATS generally 1.6-1.8 inches) will largely remain in place for Wednesday so maintained PoPs a bit below climo (i.e. 25-45% with the best chances over the west coast). Rain chances will trend closer towards easterly regime climo (i.e. 50-70%) late this week as a weakening TUTT approaches the area and PWATs increase back to near climo (albeit interspersed with occasional drier periods due to minor SAL intrusions). Given the influence of the ridge and the somewhat suppressed rain chances (at least through the first half of the period) seasonably hot temperatures look likely with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Although triple digit heat indices will be a certainty given those temperatures, there may be just enough mixing of drier air aloft to keep us below advisory criteria early in the period, with advisory conditions potentially returning by the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Light SE winds will not change much through the rest of the TAF period, reaching the 10-12kt range after 15Z. VCSH could result in brief sub-VFR periods over the ATL terminals, but showers and thunderstorms should favor APF this afternoon. Winds should also shift to the WSW after 17Z with Gulf breezes. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Easterly flow will generally prevail through early portions of the week as high pressure remains situated in the western Atlantic. Seas and wind speeds will remain well below concerning levels with overall benign boating conditions continuing. The only exception will be near any thunderstorms that form, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Easterly to southeasterly flow will allow for a moderate rip current risk to persist along some of the Atlantic beaches to start the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 92 80 92 / 30 40 10 30 West Kendall 78 92 77 92 / 30 50 10 40 Opa-Locka 80 93 79 92 / 30 40 10 30 Homestead 80 90 79 91 / 30 40 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 80 90 80 90 / 30 30 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 81 90 80 91 / 20 30 10 30 Pembroke Pines 80 93 79 93 / 20 40 10 30 West Palm Beach 79 91 79 91 / 10 30 10 20 Boca Raton 79 91 79 91 / 20 30 10 30 Naples 78 93 77 93 / 30 70 30 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...17