048
FXUS62 KMFL 170503
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
103 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Typical mid July pattern will continue across South FL the next
couple days with high pressure over the western Atlantic keeping a
light E/SE flow across the area. Forecast soundings continue to show
mid/upper level dry air, and PWAT values of 1.8-2 inches. Convection
during the afternoon/early evening will favor interior locations and
over towards the Gulf coast, with lower chances across the metro.
Much like the past couple days, a few stronger storms will be
possible especially around the lake and over towards the Naples
area. Slow storm motions will pose a low end flood risk for urban
and poor drainage locations. Overnight scattered showers and
isolated storms will be possible along the Atlantic coast and down
into southern Miami-Dade.

Temperatures today and Thursday will remain toasty, with afternoon
high temps in the low to mid 90s. When combined with dewpoints in
the middle 70s, max heat indices will be 100-105 across much of the
area. While some locations in Collier county may approach Advisory
criteria, expected convection in the afternoon and early evening
should prevent these locations from maintaining Advisory levels for
long. Thus, no heat headlines are expected as of right now.
Overnight lows tonight will be in the middle 70s around the lake, to
lower 80s close to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Forecast models continue to indicate a typical summertime
synoptic pattern, characterized by high pressure situated over the
western Atlantic, generating an east-to-southeast flow across
South Florida. Precipitable Water (PWAT) values are expected to
range from 1.5 to 2 inches throughout most of the forecast period,
slightly below to around average for this time of year. A broad
ridge dominates at the 500mb level, with 500mb temperatures
hovering around -6 degreesC, with slight variations of 0.5
degrees C. Consequently, diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated each day.

Most convective activity will be influenced by mesoscale
processes, making it challenging to precisely forecast specific
locations for isolated stronger thunderstorms beyond general
areas. Given the prevailing E-SE flow, the interior and
southwestern coast of South Florida have the elevated rain
probabilities. Convection will primarily be diurnally driven, with
most activity occurring during the afternoon and evening, while
the overnight hours will see most activity over the coastal
waters.

This pattern will also result in seasonable to above-
average temperatures, with daytime highs reaching the upper 80s
along the immediate coasts to the lower 90s inland. Nighttime lows
will range from the mid-70s in the interior to the lower 80s
along the coastlines.

Looking ahead to Sunday and Monday, forecast models consistently
depict a shift in the large-scale weather pattern as the ridging
weakens, allowing an influx of tropical moisture in the form of a
TUTT to advect into the area. While the potential for increased
precipitation exists, current PoPs will not be significantly
adjusted upwards, as the event is still 5-6 days out and subject
to further model refinement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

SCT MVFR ceilings possible early this morning across the east
coast metro. Light SE winds becoming 10-15 kts late morning
through the afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze expected this
afternoon at APF. VCTS at APF after 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to
bring gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow to most of
the local waters through the rest of the week. Seas will generally
remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame across the Atlantic
and Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over the local waters each day. This could result in
locally higher winds and seas in and around storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  81  93  82 /  30  20  50  20
West Kendall     92  79  93  78 /  30  20  60  20
Opa-Locka        93  81  93  81 /  30  20  50  20
Homestead        91  80  91  80 /  30  20  60  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  81  90  81 /  30  20  50  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  81  91  81 /  30  20  50  20
Pembroke Pines   94  81  95  81 /  30  20  50  20
West Palm Beach  92  80  92  79 /  30  10  50  10
Boca Raton       92  80  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
Naples           93  78  92  79 /  40  40  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Pine
AVIATION...CMF