503
FXUS62 KMFL 171929
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
329 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A mid level ridge will remain in place across South Florida through
tonight. At the surface, high pressure centered in the western
Atlantic will continue to bring east to southeast wind flow to the
region during this time frame. Some mid level dry air remains over
the region which will help to reduce coverage of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening hours. With east
to southeasterly wind flow in place, the east coast sea breeze will
be the dominate one and the best convection chances will remain over
Southwest Florida through the evening hours. While the potential for
strong thunderstorm development remains limited today, one or two
strong storms cannot be completely ruled out mainly across Southwest
Florida where the sea breeze boundaries will collide and interact.
Most of the showers and thunderstorms over land will diminish as
this evening progresses, however, additional convection will be
possible over the local waters and immediate east coast overnight.
Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid 70s
across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s across the east
coast metro areas.

Heading into Thursday, while mid level ridging will remain in place,
it will start to slowly shift eastward as the day progresses in
response to an amplifying mid level trough pushing into the Midwest
as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a frontal
boundary will push through the Southeast and stall out well to the
north of the region as high pressure in the western Atlantic blocks
any further southward progression of this front. This will cause a
wind shift to more of a southeasterly direction on Thursday. The
typical summertime pattern will remain in place across the region as
convection development will continue to be sea breeze driven. As
moisture advection continues along the southeasterly wind flow,
coverage will be a bit higher compared to the past several days. The
highest chances will remain over the interior and west coast
sections in the afternoon and evening. With lack of any mid to upper
level support, strong thunderstorm development will remain limited,
however, one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out over Southwest
Florida containing gusty winds and heavy downpours. High
temperatures on Thursday will generally remain in the lower 90s
across most areas. Heat index values will once again soar and range
from 105 to 110 across most of South Florida through the early
evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

As we wrap up the week and move into the weekend, South Florida will
continue to remain positioned along the western periphery of the
broad subtropical ridge residing in the Atlantic. Light to moderate
east to southeasterly low level flow will continue to prevail
through most of the extended period, with the mean flow veering more
southeasterly at times. With this ongoing E/SE pattern, rain chances
will continue to favor the interior and Gulf portions of the CWA as
the Atlantic sea breeze will advance further inland each day and the
Gulf breeze will not be able to penetrate as far. The penetration of
another Saharan Dust plume will play a role in available moisture,
as it advects into the region. This will likely to create drier
conditions this weekend, particularly aloft, and may limit shower
and storm growth potential, as well as how widespread precipitation
can become.

Moving into early next week, early model guidance is indicating the
potential for an advancing TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough)
to arrive in the region. The TUTT would provide forcing and extra
tropical moisture would fuel an increase in activity for South FL as
a whole. Extended forecasts are showing a significant rise in
precipitable water, following the drier conditions the SAL brought
in the days prior. However, there is still uncertainty for the end
of the forecast period, and with a significant factor playing a
large role in the extended forecast, changes are likely for early
next week.

High temperatures are expected to peak in the low to mid 90s in
the days ahead, with lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heat
Advisory conditions will continue to be possible each day given
the significant moisture, thus leading to high dew points and
above normal high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the east coast terminals
through the forecast period. ESE winds between 10 and 15 kts this
afternoon and this evening will gradually become light and variable
overnight. At KAPF, WSW winds around 10 kts this afternoon will
become light and variable this evening. Scattered showers and storms
will develop over the interior and west coast this afternoon which
could bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions to KAPF through the
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly wind flow
will continue across most of the local waters through the rest of
the week as high pressure centered in the western Atlantic remains
in control of the weather pattern across the region. Seas across the
Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less
through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher
in and around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place through tonight
across the Atlantic coast beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  93  81  93 /  10  40  10  60
West Kendall     79  93  78  93 /  10  50  10  60
Opa-Locka        81  93  81  93 /  10  40  10  60
Homestead        81  91  81  92 /  20  40  10  50
Fort Lauderdale  81  91  81  91 /  10  40  10  60
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  81  92 /  10  50  10  60
Pembroke Pines   81  92  81  95 /  10  40  10  60
West Palm Beach  79  91  80  93 /  10  50  10  60
Boca Raton       80  92  81  93 /  10  50  10  50
Naples           78  92  78  93 /  30  70  20  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067-068-071>074-
     168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...CWC