Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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020 FXUS62 KMFL 171630 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A mid level ridge will remain in place across South Florida through tonight. At the surface, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will continue to bring east to southeast wind flow to the region during this time frame. Some mid level dry air remains over the region which will help to reduce coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening hours. With east to southeasterly wind flow in place, the east coast sea breeze will be the dominate one and the best convection chances will remain over Southwest Florida through the evening hours. While the potential for strong thunderstorm development remains limited today, one or two strong storms cannot be completely ruled out mainly across Southwest Florida where the sea breeze boundaries will collide and interact. Most of the showers and thunderstorms over land will diminish as this evening progresses, however, additional convection will be possible over the local waters and immediate east coast overnight. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas. Heading into Thursday, while mid level ridging will remain in place, it will start to slowly shift eastward as the day progresses in response to an amplifying mid level trough pushing into the Midwest as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a frontal boundary will push through the Southeast and stall out well to the north of the region as high pressure in the western Atlantic blocks any further southward progression of this front. This will cause a wind shift to more of a southeasterly direction on Thursday. The typical summertime pattern will remain in place across the region as convection development will continue to be sea breeze driven. As moisture advection continues along the southeasterly wind flow, coverage will be a bit higher compared to the past several days. The highest chances will remain over the interior and west coast sections in the afternoon and evening. With lack of any mid to upper level support, strong thunderstorm development will remain limited, however, one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out over Southwest Florida containing gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures on Thursday will generally remain in the lower 90s across most areas. Heat index values will once again soar and range from 105 to 110 across most of South Florida through the early evening hours. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 242 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 South Florida will continue to remain positioned along the western periphery of the broad subtropical ridge for most of the extended period. Light to moderate east to southeasterly low level flow will continue to prevail through most of the extended period, with the mean flow veering more southeasterly at times late this week. With this ongoing flow pattern, rain chances will continue to be more favored towards the western half of the CWA as the Atlantic sea breeze will advance further inland each day and the Gulf breeze will not be able to penetrate as far. Another factor in precipitation chances over the weekend and into early next week will be another Saharan dust plume (SAL) advecting into the region, which is likely to create drier conditions particularly aloft. This would limit shower and storm growth potential as well as how widespread precipitation can become. Towards the end of the weekend and into early next week, the SAL will still have an impact on rain chances, but there will also be the chance for a TUTT to advect through the region and provide forcing and extra tropical moisture for increased showers and thunderstorms. The combination of these factors leads to high uncertainty for the end of the forecast period and thus changes will be likely for early next week in future forecast updates. For now, a middle ground approach has been taken with PoPS in the chance to likely categories (i.e. 50-70%) early next week. Temperatures are expected to stay in the low to mid 90s range for highs each day and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heat Advisory conditions will continue to be possible each day given the high moisture leading to high dew points and the daily hot temperatures in the 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the east coast terminals through the forecast period. ESE winds between 10 and 15 kts this afternoon and this evening will gradually become light and variable overnight. At KAPF, WSW winds around 10 kts this afternoon will become light and variable this evening. Scattered showers and storms will develop over the interior and west coast this afternoon which could bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions to KAPF through the early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue across most of the local waters through the rest of the week as high pressure centered in the western Atlantic remains in control of the weather pattern across the region. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place through tonight across the Atlantic coast beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 93 81 93 / 10 40 20 70 West Kendall 79 93 78 93 / 10 50 20 70 Opa-Locka 81 93 81 93 / 10 40 20 70 Homestead 81 91 80 91 / 20 40 20 60 Fort Lauderdale 81 91 81 91 / 10 40 20 70 N Ft Lauderdale 81 91 81 92 / 10 50 20 70 Pembroke Pines 81 92 81 94 / 10 40 20 70 West Palm Beach 79 91 80 93 / 10 50 10 70 Boca Raton 80 92 80 93 / 10 50 20 60 Naples 78 92 78 92 / 30 70 30 80 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067-068-071>074- 168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CWC