302
FXUS62 KMFL 190606
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
206 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Fairly consistent pattern continues across South FL today and
Saturday with high pressure over the western Atlantic in control,
and a stationary boundary over the SE states up into the Mid
Atlantic region. E/SE flow will continue to pump moist air into
South FL, with PWAT values of 1.8-2 inches expected. Convection will
be diurnally driven with showers and thunderstorms developing late
morning through the early evening over land, with the highest PoPs
favoring inland and SW FL, and nocturnal PoPs maximized over the
waters with some occasional showers impacting the east coast. Much
like the past several days, a few stronger storms are possible
during the afternoon and early evening hours, with strong winds
being the primary threat.

High temps today and Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s. With
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, max heat indices will again
approach heat advisory criteria. An advisory for the entire CWA will
be in effect from 10 AM until 6 PM today for max indices of 105-110.
Low temps tonight will range from the middle 70s around the lake to
lower 80s close to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The subtropical ridge will maintain its strength for the end of the
weekend and likely next week. In return, light to moderate east to
southeasterly low level flow will continue to be ongoing and
prevail through the long term period. Rain chances will continue
to be more favored towards SW Florida along the Gulf coast and
western interior sections under this regime and will have the
better chances for heavier rain. Concurrently, the incoming
Saharan dust plume (SAL) will linger into next week and provide
some drier air, particularly aloft, which can suppress convection.
Nevertheless, scattered showers and storms are still expected
each day but there will little to no severe potential due to the
dust factor.

Moving into next week, there is expected to be a TUTT low (tropical
upper tropospheric trough) forming in the western Atlantic, which
may advect westward towards the Bahamas/Cuba with energy advecting
into South Florida as well. Long term model guidance is fairly
consistent with the direction of the TUTT but differ on the timing
(ECMWF ensembles have a later arrival time than the GFS in
particular with a Thursday/Friday arrival rather than
Wednesday/Thursday). Overall, the TUTT will provide extra forcing
for ascent with increased cyclonic vorticity advection, which
combined with extra moisture advection (PWATs likely increase over 2
inches) will create the potential for increased coverage of showers
and thunderstorms. Potential impacts from this are still uncertain
even as there is fair agreement in long range guidance, so this will
be something to monitor over the next few days as we enter next
week. PoPs remain forecast primarily in the chance to likely
categories (i.e. 50-70% primarily) for the forecast period each day.
Flow may veer further southerly at times, but will still
predominantly stay in an east-to-southeast regime, which favors the
west coast in observing more rain showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures are expected to continue reaching the low to mid 90s
range for highs each day and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Therefore, Heat Advisory conditions will continue to be possible
each day. The only exception to this would be a day that sees
widespread rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Light E/SE winds early this morning becoming 10-15 kts after 15Z.
A westerly gulf breeze will develop this afternoon at APF. SCT
showers and thunderstorms expected after 15Z today which may
result in brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The east to southeast winds will continue over South Florida waters
through this weekend and into next week due to the high pressure
over the Western Atlantic waters remaining nearly stationary. The
wind speeds will also be increasing to moderate conditions over the
Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters during this time frame. Seas
generally 1-3 ft in the Atlantic and 2 ft or less in the Gulf.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day through the next week
which may result in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Increasing east to southeast flow this weekend will result in an
elevated rip current risk for the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  82  93  82 /  40  20  50  20
West Kendall     93  79  93  79 /  40  20  60  20
Opa-Locka        94  82  93  81 /  40  20  50  20
Homestead        91  81  91  81 /  30  20  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  91  82  91  81 /  40  20  50  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  82  92  81 /  40  20  50  20
Pembroke Pines   94  82  95  81 /  50  20  50  20
West Palm Beach  92  80  93  80 /  50  20  60  10
Boca Raton       92  81  93  81 /  40  20  50  20
Naples           92  78  93  78 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF