925
FXUS62 KMFL 162334
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
734 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Some convection remains along the State Road 29 corridor in
Southwest Florida this evening but most other convection has
diminished with this trend expected to continue through the
evening. A Saharan air layer could enter the region tonight into
Wednesday which could help supress the coverage of convection over
the next 24 hours or so. No major updates tonight besides tweaks
to the hourly temperature, dewpoint, and PoP grids to account for
the latest observed trends. Have a wonderful Tuesday!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Strong mid level ridging continues across the region this afternoon
while an area of high pressure at the surface keeps an east to
southeasterly wind flow in place. At the same time, a Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) is also pushing into South Florida from the east this
afternoon. This is helping to promote drier air in the mid levels
mainly across the eastern half of the region. The latest forecast
model soundings show PWAT values falling to 1.1 to 1.4 inches over
the eastern half of South Florida as the afternoon progresses. This
drier air mass will slowly move towards Southwest Florida, however,
it will take a little bit longer to arrive. Because of this, PWAT
values will remain around 1.8 to 2.1 inches through most of the
afternoon. This will for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
continue to develop along the sea breezes over the interior and west
coast this afternoon. While chances for strong thunderstorm
development remain low, one or two cannot be ruled out mainly over
interior sections of Southwest Florida. The strongest storms could
contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will gradually diminish this evening over land due to loss
of diurnal heating as well as drier air in the mid levels spreading
westward. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid
70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s across the
east coast metro areas.

Heading into Wednesday, the drier air mass over the mid levels will
slowly filter out of the region as the day progresses and deeper
layer moisture advection resumes. With mid level ridging still
remaining in place combined with high pressure centered in the
western Atlantic at the surface, the general east to southeast
synoptic wind flow will continue across the region. Convection
development will remain sea breeze driven and will favor the
interior and west coast once again during the afternoon and early
evening hours. With lack of mid to upper level support, strong
thunderstorm chances will remain low, however, one or two cannot be
ruled out mainly over interior sections of Southwest Florida where
sea breezes collide and interact with each other. High temperatures
on Wednesday will rise to around 90 along the east coast, and into
the lower to mid 90s over Southwest Florida. As additional moisture
filters back into the region, heat index values will increase and
will generally range from 105 to 108 across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Forecast models continue to indicate a typical summertime
synoptic pattern, characterized by high pressure situated over the
western Atlantic, generating an east-to-southeast flow across
South Florida. Precipitable Water (PWAT) values are expected to
range from 1.5 to 2 inches throughout most of the forecast period,
slightly below to around average for this time of year. A broad
ridge dominates at the 500mb level, with 500mb temperatures
hovering around -6 degreesC, with slight variations of 0.5
degrees C. Consequently, diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated each day.

Most convective activity will be influenced by mesoscale
processes, making it challenging to precisely forecast specific
locations for isolated stronger thunderstorms beyond general
areas. Given the prevailing E-SE flow, the interior and
southwestern coast of South Florida have the elevated rain
probabilities. Convection will primarily be diurnally driven, with
most activity occurring during the afternoon and evening, while
the overnight hours will see most activity over the coastal
waters.

This pattern will also result in seasonable to above-
average temperatures, with daytime highs reaching the upper 80s
along the immediate coasts to the lower 90s inland. Nighttime lows
will range from the mid-70s in the interior to the lower 80s
along the coastlines.

Looking ahead to Sunday and Monday, forecast models consistently
depict a shift in the large-scale weather pattern as the ridging
weakens, allowing an influx of tropical moisture in the form of a
TUTT to advect into the area. While the potential for increased
precipitation exists, current PoPs will not be significantly
adjusted upwards, as the event is still 5-6 days out and subject
to further model refinement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Remnant convection remains around SWFL including APF. Convection
should trend down for the evening and overnight before Atlantic
showers return in the morning. Focus should shift over the east
coast terminals from 10-12z to 18-21z and short-fused AMDs due to
sub-VFR impacts from TS cannot be ruled out. Afternoon TSRA focus
will move inland and then again towards APF/Gulf Coast. Wind
should remain easterly though sea breeze at APF will turn flow
W/SW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to
bring gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow to most of
the local waters through the rest of the week. Seas will generally
remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame across the Atlantic
and Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over the local waters each day. This could result in
locally higher winds and seas in and around storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  92  81  92 /  10  40  20  50
West Kendall     78  92  79  92 /  10  40  20  60
Opa-Locka        80  93  81  93 /  10  40  10  50
Homestead        80  91  80  91 /  10  40  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  81  90  81  91 /  10  40  10  50
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  81  92 /  10  40  10  50
Pembroke Pines   81  94  81  95 /  10  40  10  50
West Palm Beach  79  91  80  92 /  10  30  10  60
Boca Raton       80  91  80  92 /  10  30  10  50
Naples           76  93  79  92 /  30  40  20  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Pine
AVIATION...RAG/JFR