773
FXUS62 KMFL 150725
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
325 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The South Florida region will remain under the influence
of a surface ridge sitting and expanding over the western
Atlantic waters. This induces and keeps a steady east to
southeast flow in place over the next few days. With high
pressure being the dominant factor, showers and storms
will continue to be scattered and develop off the sea
breeze circulations and other mesoscale boundaries.

The previously mentioned tropical wave and its associated moisture
surge is now expected to stay south of the entire CWA, so the focus
has shifted to the routine daily shower and thunderstorm chances for
all locations along with lower PoPs. The easterly surface flow around
the surface high will allow the Atlantic sea breeze to advance
inland while the Gulf breeze becomes pinned essentially near the Gulf
coastline. Therefore, the majority of showers and storms are
expected to be observed for the interior and Gulf coast areas.

There is potential for a batch of drier air to temporarily filter in
on Tuesday, which could lead to drier conditions on Tuesday.
However, still expecting some level of scattered showers and
thunderstorms for both days in this early week period but with a
higher level of activity anticipated for Monday.

Temperatures will continue to reach the low to mid 90s with
heat index values likely around 105-110F, although some spots
could exceed 110 degree heat indices. As a result, a Heat
Advisory has been issued for all of South Florida today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The area will remain positioned along the western periphery
of the broad subtropical ridge through most of the upcoming
week. Light to moderate easterly low-lvl flow will prevail
through most of the extended period, with the mean flow
veering more southeasterly at times late this week. The drier
air mass behind the tropical wave (PWATS generally 1.6-1.8
inches) will largely remain in place for Wednesday so maintained
PoPs a bit below climo (i.e. 25-45% with the best chances over
the west coast). Rain chances will trend closer towards easterly
regime climo (i.e. 50-70%) late this week as a weakening TUTT
approaches the area and PWATs increase back to near climo (albeit
interspersed with occasional drier periods due to minor SAL
intrusions).

Given the influence of the ridge and the somewhat suppressed rain
chances (at least through the first half of the period) seasonably
hot temperatures look likely with highs in the low to mid 90s and
lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Although triple digit heat
indices will be a certainty given those temperatures, there may be
just enough mixing of drier air aloft to keep us below advisory
criteria early in the period, with advisory conditions potentially
returning by the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Light SE winds will not change much through the rest of the
TAF period, reaching the 10-12kt range after 15Z. VCSH could
result in brief sub-VFR periods over the ATL terminals, but
showers and thunderstorms should favor APF this afternoon. Winds
should also shift to the WSW after 17Z with Gulf breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Easterly flow will generally prevail through early portions of
the week as high pressure sits in the western Atlantic. Overall,
benign conditions are expected with lighter winds and seas. The
only exception will be near any thunderstorms that form, which
could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Easterly to southeasterly flow will allow for a moderate rip current
risk to persist along the Palm Beach and Broward beaches through the
first half of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  81  92  81 /  60  30  40  10
West Kendall     92  78  92  78 /  60  30  50  10
Opa-Locka        92  80  93  80 /  60  30  40  10
Homestead        90  80  90  80 /  60  30  40  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  81  90  80 /  50  30  30  10
N Ft Lauderdale  91  81  91  80 /  50  20  30  10
Pembroke Pines   94  81  94  80 /  50  20  40  10
West Palm Beach  91  79  91  79 /  40  10  30  10
Boca Raton       91  80  91  79 /  50  20  30  10
Naples           93  77  93  77 /  70  30  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACHES...WR
AVIATION...17