160
FXUS64 KMEG 110430
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1130 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Pleasant temperatures and dry conditions will prevail across the
Mid-South today. Patchy fog is possible overnight. A gradual
warming trend will start tomorrow, with hot and humid conditions
returning to the region as early as Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Dry air filtering in on the back side of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl
has created a beautiful day across the Mid-South. Highs will be
sub-90 degrees today with clear skies and low humidity. Dry air
may preclude dense fog, but light winds and clear skies may still
allow patchy fog development tonight. Unfortunately, this pleasant
mid-July cooldown will not last for long. As surface ridging
builds over the southeast, temperatures will gradually be on the
climb through the end of the week. The good news is that this
airmass is still relatively dry, so albeit a bit hot, humidity
will remain on the mild side for the rest of the week. This
ridging also means we`ll have little to no chance of rain for the
next several days.

In the extended forecast, heat and humidity really ramp up early
next week as the surface ridge amplifies over east Tennessee.
Southerly flow will allow deep Gulf Coast moisture advection up
the Lower MS River Valley, surging dewpoints into the mid to
upper 70s Sunday through Tuesday. The NBM is even showing a few
pixels of at least 20% probabilities of temperatures above 100
degrees starting Sunday. This hot and humid combination will
likely warrant heat headlines as early as Sunday, but most
definitely at some point early next week. The CPC outlook for the
remainder of July suggests at least a 40% chance of above normal
temperatures; the heat is here to stay for at least the next 2
weeks.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period under high
pressure. Winds will remain light and variable. Probabilities
remain low for BR/FG development, but MKL has the highest
probability (still low around 20%) is the most likely to develop
BR conditions (MVFR), but should return to VFR shortly after
sunrise.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...DNM