Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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080 FGUS63 KKRF 231439 ESPMDT LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1137 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2024 ******************************************************** ********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ********* ******************************************************** IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :CANNONBALL R AT REGENT ND REGN8 22.0 24.0 26.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :CEDAR CR AT RALEIGH ND 19S RLGN8 12.0 14.0 16.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :CANNONBALL R AT BREIEN ND BREN8 10.0 20.0 23.0 | 7 17 24 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :BEAVER CR AT LINTON ND 1W BVRN8 12.0 14.0 16.0 | <5 5 16 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 8 :GRAND R AT LITTLE EAGLE SD 1S LIES2 15.0 17.0 21.0 | <5 7 10 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 <5 :MOREAU R AT FAITH SD 14NW FTHS2 16.0 18.0 21.0 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 :MOREAU R AT WHITEHORSE SD 2SE WHIS2 21.0 23.0 25.0 | <5 <5 11 | <5 <5 7 | <5 <5 <5 :BELLE FOURCHE R AT STATE LINE WY-SD BWSW4 15.0 16.0 18.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :BELLE FOURCHE R AT STURGIS SD 20NE SBFS2 15.0 17.0 19.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :BELLE FOURCHE R AT ELM SPRINGS SD 4NW EMSS2 19.0 22.0 24.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :CHEYENNE R AT WASTA SD 3E WASS2 13.0 15.0 16.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :CHEYENNE R AT PLAINVIEW SD PLNS2 17.0 19.0 20.0 | <5 6 7 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 LEGEND HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT) CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0727 Z DH12 /DC2407230437/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH .B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :CANNONBALL R REGN8 5.1/ 5.2/ 5.3/ 7.3/ 6.9/ 9.1/ 10.6/ :CEDAR CR RLGN8 1.0/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 4.8/ 4.6/ 5.7/ 5.8/ :CANNONBALL R BREN8 2.2/ 2.3/ 3.0/ 7.0/ 6.7/ 9.0/ 10.7/ :BEAVER CR BVRN8 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.8/ 7.1/ 7.0/ 8.1/ 9.7/ :GRAND R LIES2 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.3/ 7.0/ 6.4/ 9.8/ 10.5/ :MOREAU R FTHS2 0.8/ 0.9/ 1.0/ 2.7/ 2.3/ 4.5/ 5.3/ WHIS2 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 6.4/ 5.1/ 7.3/ 8.1/ :BELLE FOURCHE R BWSW4 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.4/ SBFS2 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.8/ 4.7/ EMSS2 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 5.9/ :CHEYENNE R WASS2 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.9/ 1.5/ PLNS2 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.8/ 8.7/ 9.5/ 9.8/ .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0727 Z DH12 /DC2407230437/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH .B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :CANNONBALL R REGN8 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ :CEDAR CR RLGN8 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ :CANNONBALL R BREN8 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ :BEAVER CR BVRN8 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ :GRAND R LIES2 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ :MOREAU R FTHS2 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ WHIS2 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ :BELLE FOURCHE R BWSW4 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ SBFS2 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ EMSS2 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ :CHEYENNE R WASS2 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ PLNS2 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.3/ .END $$