Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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727 ACUS11 KWNS 161346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161345 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-161515- Mesoscale Discussion 1649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0845 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Areas affected...Extreme northeast KS into parts of MO and southwest IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545... Valid 161345Z - 161515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging/severe gusts may continue through the morning. Additional watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...One thunderstorm cluster with a history of producing severe gusts is currently near Kansas City, with another potentially severe storm cluster over north-central MO. Other less-organized convection is ongoing from southeast MO into southwest IL. Evolution of the ongoing convection through the morning remains uncertain, with a pocket of diurnal heating potential in advance of the north-central MO cluster, and some heating/destabilization also expected south of the storms across southeast MO/southwest IL. MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and marginally supportive deep-layer shear could continue to support some organized severe-wind potential through the morning, especially in advance of the north-central MO cluster. Downstream watch issuance into parts of eastern MO is possible, depending on short-term convective trends. Some severe threat could also eventually evolve out of the southeast MO/southwest IL convection. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39729035 38748947 37948894 37168931 37249018 37779225 38269348 38779467 38949478 39329508 39629480 39789342 39729035