007
ACUS11 KWNS 170020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170019
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-170215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1662
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548...

Valid 170019Z - 170215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548
continues.

SUMMARY...Confidence is increasing in the potential for a corridor
of wind damage across parts of far northeast Virginia into northern
New Jersey.

DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery trends from the past 30-60 minutes show
steady cloud-top cooling as a broken line of convection deepens from
far northeast VA into southeast PA and NJ. Latest VWP observations
and upper-air analyses show somewhat weaker mid to upper-level flow
as compared to locations further north (where an organized MCS is
ongoing), but mean wind and deep-layer shear vectors should favor
upscale growth in the coming hour into a somewhat more cohesive line
of storms. Regional terminal radar imagery already shows some degree
of cold pool amalgamation, which supports this idea. RAP
mesoanalysis indicates that the apex of a buoyancy ridge lies
immediately downstream of the developing line, and deep-layer wind
shear is still sufficient (around 25-35 knots) to support some
degree of convective organization. Consequently, the potential for a
line of thunderstorms capable of damaging to severe winds should
increase over the next 1-2 hours as thunderstorms continue to
intensify.

..Moore.. 07/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39797707 40067621 40337553 40537515 40657478 40677434
            40497403 40237404 39917413 39667438 39387467 39147520
            38927590 38737665 38717705 38737739 38797765 38837793
            38947810 39167795 39427768 39697715 39797707