184
FXUS64 KMAF 051123
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

- Low to medium rain chances return Sunday (10-30% for most
  locations, up to 50% in the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region).

- Temperatures gradually warm closer to near and slightly above
  normal through next week with mostly dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Current satellite imagery depicts upper-level high pressure over
northwestern Mexico with a shortwave trough across southwestern
Kansas extending up to the High Plains. The trough will continue to
move eastward, while upper-level ridging builds in today creating
warmer and mostly dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to reach
the lower to upper 90s with some spots along the Pecos River
climbing to the triple digits. Precipitation chances will remain low
(< 20%) across the region. The greatest chances for isolated
storms/showers to occur will be across the eastern Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos. One thing to note is that high resolution
guidance has a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) forming in
northeastern New Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle late this
afternoon. The MCS will make its way south in the vicinity of the
northwestern zones (southeast New Mexico and northwestern Permian
Basin) by late evening into the overnight hours. Guidance is in
agreement with the MCS dissipating after midnight, however, there is
uncertainty of how far south it will go. If the storms make into the
northwest zones, decaying storms and rain showers will be prevalent,
therefore, no impacts are expected.

Sunday, low to medium (20-60%) rain chances return for a lot of
locations across the region due to an inverted trough approaching
from the east. The eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and
Davis Mountains/Big Bend region are going to have the greatest
chance of receiving more rainfall. Another muggy day looks in store
as well especially for the eastern half of the forecast area as
easterly to southeasterly surface winds bring in rich Gulf moisture.
Dew point temperatures are forecasted to reach the mid 60s to lower
70s. With these higher than normal dew points, high temperatures are
going to be cooler than Saturday reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s
for most. Areas along the Presidio and Rio Grande valleys are
expected to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. Precipitation chances
begin to decline heading into the long term.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Monday, the upper high pressure system sets over the Desert
Southwest. Northerly to northeasterly flow aloft with cloud cover
will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal for this time
of year (upper 80s to lower 90s areawide).  Rain/storms are
forecasted to remain in the higher terrain (Davis Mountains and Big
Bend), thanks to upslope flow. Tuesday, upper-level ridging
strengthens becoming the dominant feature lasting through the rest
of next week. Cluster analysis indicates the upper high pressure
system staying off to the west maintaining northeasterly flow
aloft. This will allow temperatures to continue to be near normal
for this time of year.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Moisture from recent rains is causing a light mist to form at MAF
this morning. Satellite is also showing IFR CIGs developing just
east of the terminal. The current forecast is that low level winds
will keep the CIGs just east of MAF but cannot rule out it briefly
sneaking in over the next couple of hours before lifting out.
Other site will remain VFR through the next 24 hours with winds
shifting clockwise around the dial.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               95  73  90  71 /  10  10  40  10
Carlsbad                 98  72  92  70 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                   97  73  91  73 /   0  20  30  10
Fort Stockton            99  71  92  70 /  10   0  40  10
Guadalupe Pass           91  68  85  66 /   0   0  20  10
Hobbs                    94  70  90  68 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                    92  64  87  63 /  10   0  50  10
Midland Intl Airport     96  72  91  71 /   0   0  30  10
Odessa                   96  71  90  70 /   0   0  30  10
Wink                     98  72  92  70 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10