242
FXUS64 KMAF 170711
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Saturday looks like a repeat of Friday with highs back into the 100s
for most locations outside of the higher terrain. The hottest
conditions relative to normal will reside across the the
northeastern Permian Basin where temperatures will surpass 105
degrees. A Heat Advisory has already been issued for that area.
Increasing subsidence will keep much of the area dry with an
isolated storm still possible in the Davis Mountains. After another
mild night, Sunday is a complete repeat of the hot and dry
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Mid level ridging will strengthen overhead and only make it hotter
early next week. With support from ensembles, next week is likely to
be the hottest of the summer. There is still some disagreement on
which day or days will be hottest, but there is >40% confidence in
highs reaching >105F for most of the area at least one day.
Widespread heat products are likely and if anyone has plans to be
outside, mornings and evenings are best. Heat is cumulative and can
affect even the healthiest of people. With subsidence so strong, we
still don`t see much in the way of precipitation through the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Monitoring a dying outflow boundary moving in from LUB. Winds
could briefly switch to the north at KHOB and KMAF, but should
quickly return to the south. Otherwise, VFR prevails.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              105  76 104  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                103  73 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  102  75 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           102  73 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           95  70  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                   102  72 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    97  65  94  64 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport    102  75 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  102  76 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    104  77 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     Borden-Howard-Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29