Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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229 FXUS64 KMAF 111658 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1158 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 The short term forecast remains quite jejune, as the upper ridge persists. WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge still covering the southwest and central CONUS, extending from the eastern Pacific to the ArklaTex and into the Gulf of Mexico. The old inverted trough remains over Baja, bifurcating the ridge, but this will continue to have negligible effect on weather here. The ridge will remain in place today, w/models increasing thicknesses slightly and increasing highs on average 2-3 degrees over yesterday`s. Fortunately, despite the increase, heat advisory criteria does not look to be met attm. Chances of convection in this scenario are slim-to-none. An isolated cell or two may try to develop invof the Davis Mountains, but should die out quickly. Tonight looks like a carbon copy of this morning, as a 35+ kt LLJ redevelops, retarding radiational cooling and keeping overnight lows ~ 6-8 F above normal. Monday, the ridge is forecast to shift east to near the ArklaTex. Despite this thicknesses will remain the same or even increase a little, making Monday perhaps the warmest day this forecast as highs top out 7-9 F above climatology. This will put triple digits in the river valleys, but not enough again to warrant any heat products. A cell or two may try to develop invof the Davis Mountains, but chances look about as pathetic as they do this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A bit more hope has begun to emerge in the forecast over the next week. It will mostly remain much of the same as its been, but with at least a day or two of rain potential for a large portion of the area. To start the week, the upper-high begins to weaken slightly as it slides off towards the east into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This keeps temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s for the majority with little hope of rain. The only exception is an isolated threat of thunderstorms over the western mountains. This changes by the middle of the week as model guidance is starting to show an easterly wave moving across the western Gulf of Mexico and wrapping around the upper-high across West Texas. This should be the impetus for lift and moisture, bringing widespread rain chances to a bulk of the region. While the exact details remain uncertain, at least some can expect to see beneficial rainfall through the middle of the week. Temperatures remain about the same despite the passing disturbance. Things begin to dry out once again as the upper-high beings to slide back to the west, becoming centered near the Four Corners. Stay tuned for more details as we get closer. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR continues with gusty south winds through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 101 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 100 73 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 99 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 99 73 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 92 70 93 70 / 0 0 10 10 Hobbs 99 72 100 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 92 64 94 65 / 10 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 102 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...29