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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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886 FXUS64 KMAF 111829 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 129 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Temperatures continue to warm well into the 90s across much of the area this afternoon. Cu is developing over the Davis Mountains and while an isolated shower or storm is possible, strong subsidence will keep this threat limited. Low tempertures will be very mild tonight as elevated winds continue to keep the atmosphere mixed even after the sun sets. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 70s. Mid level ridging remains in full control Monday and we see very little change in store. Highs will once again reach into upper 90s to near 100 with an isolated storm possible in the Davis Mountains. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper air pattern evolution remains on track early to mid week, as an upper high weakens in response to multiple mid-level perturbations moving across the northern/central CONUS, and meanders from the Southern Great Plains to the ArkLaTex and Mississippi River Valley over the Deep South Tuesday into Friday. Thereafter, the upper high is still forecast to again settle over the Four Corners by the beginning of next weekend and for the ridge axis to be situated from W TX extending into the Northern Great Plains. PoPs have increased Wednesday and Thursday from previous runs, as model guidance indicates a disturbance in the low to mid levels moving across the western Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Permian Basin and providing lift and moisture across the area for increased rain chances, especially over the western higher terrain. NBM highs Wednesday and Thursday have also trended a few degrees lower, indicating increased confidence for increased clouds and rain across parts of the area that will limit solar heating and keep temperatures down. However, aside from the Canadian GEPS ensemble showing up to half an inch accumulation over the Davis Mountains and above a quarter inch accumulation westernmost regions of TX into the SE NM plains, most ensembles are showing only a few tenths of an inch accumulation at most from this event, with NBM even lower at a few hundredths of an inch. Little change from previous runs with lows, as we are still expecting a LLJ each night to maintain mixing of the boundary layer and inhibit radiational cooling near the surface. Highs 5 to 10 degrees above average in the triple digits along the Pecos River, over the northeast Permian Basin, and near the Rio Grande with 110+ along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend, are forecast each day, with 90s, 80s in highest elevations elsewhere. Lows likewise remain 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average for this time of year, only dropping into the 70s and above, 60s northern Lea County and Guadalupe Mountains down to Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos each night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR continues with gusty south winds through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 101 73 100 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 75 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 74 100 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 93 70 91 / 0 10 10 10 Hobbs 71 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 65 93 64 92 / 0 10 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 75 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 75 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 76 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...29