804
FXUS64 KMAF 012355
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
655 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

- A Flood Watch is in effect through early this evening for Southeast
  New Mexico and all of West Texas except Terrell County.

- Excellent chances of rain are expected through Thursday, then
  decreasing into next week, and centered on the Davis Mountains.

- Temperatures will gradually warm to near-normal Saturday, then
  cool slightly Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A weak front combined with the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry have
brought a shield of showers with isolated thunderstorms to the
region that will continue through much of the short term forecast.
With that in mind, the current Flash Flood Watch that encompasses
much of the CWA will hold for now and will likely be extended for
certain zones this evening. Many spots will see, through light to
moderate rainfall, another quarter to half inch or more of
additional rain through tonight. A few heavier showers or
thunderstorms may bring heavy rain leading to some spots seeing
closer to an inch or more.

The abundant moisture and the nearby upper level trough hold on in
the area for Wednesday where another day of light to moderate
scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible.
Temperatures will be well moderated by clouds and rain nearly
areawide with the only warm spots along the Rio Grande and in Big
Bend.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

After a cooler and wetter period, an upper level ridge returns,
leading to warmer, and eventually drier conditions for most areas.
Highs on Thursday warm a few degrees over the previous day,
primarily reaching into the 80s, with 70s holding steady over the
mountains. Highs on the 4th of July top out in the 90s over the
Permian Basin and portions of southeast New Mexico, while 80s hang
around elsewhere. By Saturday, 90s become more common across the
region as ridging builds over northwestern Mexico. The ridge drifts
slightly west and northwestward early next week, allowing highs to
hover closer to normal, if not a touch below.

A shortwave trough will bring us our best shot at rainfall Thursday
afternoon. PoPs areawide range anywhere between 50-80%. The highest
rain chances lie near and over the Davis Mountains. Rain chances on
the 4th of July begin to drop off for many. Though, the mountains
and Big Bend region may still see scattered showers and
thunderstorms (40-60%). With any luck, looks like the weather
overall will be quite nice for enjoying some grilling and fireworks!
Through the weekend, moist upslope flow may result in additional
shower/storm activity in the vicinity of the higher elevations.
Otherwise, drier conditions await most early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR to MVFR ceilings will be in place this evening with scattered
to numerous SHRA and isolated TSRA translating across much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico. Ceilings and visibility could
become briefly lowered to MVFR to IFR thresholds in the heavier
rain showers and thunderstorms that develop. Ceilings are expected
to lower to IFR to low-end MVFR thresholds across much of the
region overnight into Wednesday morning with a continued potential
for at least MVFR reductions in visibility. Rain chances will
continue overnight, though the overall coverage may trend a bit
lower through the overnight hours. Ceilings gradually improve
late Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, but still
remaining MVFR for most of the region. Additional scattered to
numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected develop again on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  80  69  85 /  50  60  50  60
Carlsbad                 66  76  67  83 /  80  70  60  50
Dryden                   70  83  71  85 /  60  60  50  60
Fort Stockton            67  81  68  84 /  50  70  50  80
Guadalupe Pass           61  72  63  78 /  70  60  50  50
Hobbs                    65  76  66  82 /  80  70  60  50
Marfa                    62  75  63  78 /  60  80  70  90
Midland Intl Airport     69  80  70  85 /  60  60  60  50
Odessa                   68  78  69  84 /  50  60  60  50
Wink                     68  80  69  85 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
     Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...21