


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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804 FXUS64 KMAF 012355 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 655 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - A Flood Watch is in effect through early this evening for Southeast New Mexico and all of West Texas except Terrell County. - Excellent chances of rain are expected through Thursday, then decreasing into next week, and centered on the Davis Mountains. - Temperatures will gradually warm to near-normal Saturday, then cool slightly Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A weak front combined with the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry have brought a shield of showers with isolated thunderstorms to the region that will continue through much of the short term forecast. With that in mind, the current Flash Flood Watch that encompasses much of the CWA will hold for now and will likely be extended for certain zones this evening. Many spots will see, through light to moderate rainfall, another quarter to half inch or more of additional rain through tonight. A few heavier showers or thunderstorms may bring heavy rain leading to some spots seeing closer to an inch or more. The abundant moisture and the nearby upper level trough hold on in the area for Wednesday where another day of light to moderate scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible. Temperatures will be well moderated by clouds and rain nearly areawide with the only warm spots along the Rio Grande and in Big Bend. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 After a cooler and wetter period, an upper level ridge returns, leading to warmer, and eventually drier conditions for most areas. Highs on Thursday warm a few degrees over the previous day, primarily reaching into the 80s, with 70s holding steady over the mountains. Highs on the 4th of July top out in the 90s over the Permian Basin and portions of southeast New Mexico, while 80s hang around elsewhere. By Saturday, 90s become more common across the region as ridging builds over northwestern Mexico. The ridge drifts slightly west and northwestward early next week, allowing highs to hover closer to normal, if not a touch below. A shortwave trough will bring us our best shot at rainfall Thursday afternoon. PoPs areawide range anywhere between 50-80%. The highest rain chances lie near and over the Davis Mountains. Rain chances on the 4th of July begin to drop off for many. Though, the mountains and Big Bend region may still see scattered showers and thunderstorms (40-60%). With any luck, looks like the weather overall will be quite nice for enjoying some grilling and fireworks! Through the weekend, moist upslope flow may result in additional shower/storm activity in the vicinity of the higher elevations. Otherwise, drier conditions await most early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 VFR to MVFR ceilings will be in place this evening with scattered to numerous SHRA and isolated TSRA translating across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Ceilings and visibility could become briefly lowered to MVFR to IFR thresholds in the heavier rain showers and thunderstorms that develop. Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR to low-end MVFR thresholds across much of the region overnight into Wednesday morning with a continued potential for at least MVFR reductions in visibility. Rain chances will continue overnight, though the overall coverage may trend a bit lower through the overnight hours. Ceilings gradually improve late Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, but still remaining MVFR for most of the region. Additional scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected develop again on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 69 80 69 85 / 50 60 50 60 Carlsbad 66 76 67 83 / 80 70 60 50 Dryden 70 83 71 85 / 60 60 50 60 Fort Stockton 67 81 68 84 / 50 70 50 80 Guadalupe Pass 61 72 63 78 / 70 60 50 50 Hobbs 65 76 66 82 / 80 70 60 50 Marfa 62 75 63 78 / 60 80 70 90 Midland Intl Airport 69 80 70 85 / 60 60 60 50 Odessa 68 78 69 84 / 50 60 60 50 Wink 68 80 69 85 / 60 60 60 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews- Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin- Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson- Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin- Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward- Winkler. NM...Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...21