817
FXUS64 KMAF 121955
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
255 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

High and low temperatures as well as PoPs have not changed much
from previous NBM runs. We are still expecting higher rain chances
later Wednesday afternoon and evening into Thursday. More on that
in the long term discussion.

Today, VIS and IR satellite show little in the way of clouds
aside from some high clouds over SE NM plains, the Big Bend, and
the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. These high clouds are streaming
northwest as southeasterly flow continues over the area. While
ridging will redevelop farther to the east over the ArkLaTex into
the Deep South, highs will remain similar to the last few days,
with no heat advisories expected as high temperatures come out ~6
to 10 degrees above average. Triple digit readings along the Pecos
River into the Upper Trans Pecos, over the northeast Permian
Basin, and along the near the Rio Grande with ~110+ readings right
along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend are forecast, with 90s, 80s
in highest elevations elsewhere. Showers and storms are possible
due to elevated heating of terrain over the Davis Mountains, but
without much dynamic forcing aside from that provided by
orographic flows, these showers and storms are not likely to
persist for very long and will dissipate after sunset. As has been
the case for the past few nights, 35+ kt LLJ tonight will result
near surface radiational cooling being inhibited and mixing of the
boundary layer, resulting in lows ~6 to 12 degrees above average
and only falling into the 70s and above, 60s in northern Lea
County and Marfa Plateau into the Lower Trans Pecos.

Tuesday, ridging continues to meander over the ArkLaTex into
Southern Mississippi Valley, with decreasing thicknesses yielding
high temperatures a few degrees cooler than today, ~ 4 to 10
degrees above average, and reduced extent and magnitude of triple
digit readings along the Pecos River and northeast Permian Basin.
Therefore we are also not expecting any heat products for
tomorrow. With an approaching shortwave from AZ skirting the
western periphery of the upper high, convective chances will be
slightly higher tomorrow afternoon and evening over westernmost
regions, but not enough to yield more than an isolated chance of
storms. Tuesday night will repeat the same story of the past few
nights as the LLJ continues to keep overnight lows above average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Conditions stay pretty stagnant over the extended forecast
period. High pressure will remain in position from the northern
Gulf Coast to New Mexico. Highs through the weekend will thus
remain in the upper 90s to low 100s which is typical August
weather for West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The only
feature to break up the monotony is a weak upper trough that moves
across the area Wednesday and Thursday. The trough will help
increase rain chances mainly for areas west of the Pecos River on
Wednesday, with slight chances spreading east on Thursday to
include the Permian Basin. You have to get your rainfall on one of
those two days because the remainder of the extended is dry as the
trough weakens and high pressure again dominates.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR VIS and CIGs prevail throughout TAF period with predominately
southeast winds. Winds at beginning of period start off gusty at
MAF and remain gusty, and become gusty at other terminals by 22Z-
23Z today. Winds remain gusty until 07Z-08Z Tuesday, after which
they decrease except for at FST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 101  76 102 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 74 100  74 100 /   0  10  10  20
Dryden                   76  99  75 100 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            73  98  74 100 /   0  10   0  30
Guadalupe Pass           70  91  70  91 /  10  20  20  30
Hobbs                    70  97  72  99 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    65  93  67  91 /  10  30  20  50
Midland Intl Airport     75  97  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   75  97  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     77 101  77 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94