261
FXUS64 KMAF 171742
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Saturday looks like a repeat of Friday with highs back into the 100s
for most locations outside of the higher terrain. The hottest
conditions relative to normal will reside across the the
northeastern Permian Basin where temperatures will surpass 105
degrees. A Heat Advisory has already been issued for that area.
Increasing subsidence will keep much of the area dry with an
isolated storm still possible in the Davis Mountains. After another
mild night, Sunday is a complete repeat of the hot and dry
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Mid level ridging will strengthen overhead and only make it hotter
early next week. With support from ensembles, next week is likely to
be the hottest of the summer. There is still some disagreement on
which day or days will be hottest, but there is >40% confidence in
highs reaching >105F for most of the area at least one day.
Widespread heat products are likely and if anyone has plans to be
outside, mornings and evenings are best. Heat is cumulative and can
affect even the healthiest of people. With subsidence so strong, we
still don`t see much in the way of precipitation through the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

CAVU conditions are forecast across all area aerodromes through
18/18Z. Light winds, mainly out of the south to southeast, are
forecast. Will see some occasional gusty winds around 20 knots at
any terminal; confidence is highest at KHOB and KPEQ this
afternoon. Winds should die back some after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 103  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73 100  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74 100  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           69  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    72  99  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  93  65  93 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     76 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   77 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     77 102  76 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Howard-
     Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...70