855
FXUS64 KMAF 141129
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the
  higher terrain (20-50% there, 10-30% elsewhere). Localized
  flash flooding remains possible.

- High temperatures gradually warm towards normal through the
  week. Return of near 100F temperatures possible next weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The synoptic pattern remains similar to before: a mid-level ridge is
still evident over the southwestern CONUS, while the trough
continues to sit over central Texas. Meanwhile, we in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico remain wedged between the two features.
Overall, given the continued lack of appreciable forcing across much
of our area, the forecast today looks similar to that of yesterday:
the best rain chances (20-50%) are in/near the higher terrain (ie
the Davis Mountains down towards the Big Bend) due mainly to upslope
flow. Meanwhile, rogue outflow boundaries or weak disturbances
rounding the edge of the ridge could generate a few isolated showers
and thunderstorms elsewhere (10-20%). Otherwise, highs remain in the
upper 80s and low 90s, while lows tonight will be in the upper 60s
and low 70s.

Tuesday`s forecast looks pretty similar to Monday`s as far as
temperatures and rain chances are concerned. Nevertheless, after
Tuesday and going into the Long Term Period, the pattern begins to
change as ridging begins to build back in from the east and heights
begin to increase...

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

By the middle of the week, rain chances stay highest over the Davis
Mountains and into southeast New Mexico as a monsoonal pattern keeps
hold. Broad ridging stays in place across the southern US and
somewhat limits more widespread storm coverage. Highs will gradually
increase into the mid 90s by the end of the week and into the
weekend. Lows stay in the low to mid 70s for most with 60s over the
higher terrain. By the end of the weekend, upper level ridging
strengthens and highs reach into the upper 90s for many with a few
spots reaching the century mark.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. Winds remain
generally light and out of the southeast. Though some isolated
showers/storms are expected today, confidence is currently very low
that any of the terminals will experience any impacts. As a result,
did not include PROB30s in any of the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  70  90  72 /  10  10  20   0
Carlsbad                 90  69  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   90  72  90  72 /  30  10  20  10
Fort Stockton            92  70  92  72 /  10   0  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           83  65  86  68 /  20  10  10   0
Hobbs                    88  67  90  68 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    85  62  84  63 /  30  10  40  10
Midland Intl Airport     91  71  90  72 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   90  69  89  72 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     91  69  92  71 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...13