054
FXUS64 KMAF 140727
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
227 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge has shifted to the
ArklaTex, nudged east by a shortwave moving through New Mexico.

This setup allowed a little more coverage of convection over the
higher terrain yesterday, some of which is still going invof KCNM.
This afternoon/evening, large-scale ascent from the incoming trough
will combine w/a weak line of convergence running SW-NE through the
CWA, for perhaps the best chances of rain for West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico for the next couple of weeks or so.  Despite
this, thicknesses are forecast to increase locally, so afternoon
highs should be at or just a bit warmer than yesterday.  The bad
news for those who like cooler weather is that today will be the
coolest day this forecast.

Tonight, while the LLJ is forecast to be weaker than this morning`s,
plenty of debris cloud is anticipated, and this will inhibit
radiational cooling, keeping lows unseasonably warm at 8-10 F above
normal.

Thursday, thicknesses increase further, signaling what looks to be
a long-fused heat wave as the western portion of the ridge begins
building east, adding a couple of degrees to this afternoon`s highs,
w/temperatures ~ 8-10 F above normal.  Heat advisories look likely in
a few areas, and will be issued by subsequent shifts.  One last
window for convection is possible, especially over the Davis
Mountains and adjacent areas.  Best chances look to remain west of
the Pecos.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The last chance of rain hangs on into early Thursday evening from
southeast New Mexico to the Davis Mountains along a weak surface
trough. This activity quickly wanes after sunset with the loss of
solar heating and effectively ends any hope of rain for the
foreseeable future. The upper-level ridge is expected to gradually
strengthen and expand back to the east, encompassing much of the
southern Great Plains by this weekend and into the following week.
The temperature trajectory remains on a slow but steady climb
through the remainder of the forecast with this pattern in place.
The upper 90s climb into the low 100s and the low 100s climb into
the mid to even upper 100s as time progresses. This is expected
to support a prolonged heat wave across a large portion of the
region. The hottest temperatures look likely across the Big Bend
and eastern Permian Basin at this time. These locations can expect
temperatures surpassing the 105 F mark during the afternoon hours
each day by next week. Similar excessive heat is expected
elsewhere across the region as well. Hazardous heat products are
likely going to be needed for a large portion of the area as the
intensity and duration of the heat is only expected to slowly
build. I wish I had better news to share but a hot and dry spell
is on the horizon with no end in sight at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, afternoon,
w/bases starting ~ 4.5-6 kft AGL. Convection is possible all
terminals, but chances are too low for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  78 103  77 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 99  74 102  74 /  30  20  10  20
Dryden                  100  75 101  75 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Stockton           100  75 101  74 /  30  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           90  70  93  72 /  40  20  20  20
Hobbs                    98  72 100  72 /  30  30  10  20
Marfa                    91  66  92  66 /  60  30  50  20
Midland Intl Airport     99  77 100  76 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                   99  78 100  77 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                    101  78 103  77 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44