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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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054 FXUS64 KMAF 140727 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 227 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge has shifted to the ArklaTex, nudged east by a shortwave moving through New Mexico. This setup allowed a little more coverage of convection over the higher terrain yesterday, some of which is still going invof KCNM. This afternoon/evening, large-scale ascent from the incoming trough will combine w/a weak line of convergence running SW-NE through the CWA, for perhaps the best chances of rain for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico for the next couple of weeks or so. Despite this, thicknesses are forecast to increase locally, so afternoon highs should be at or just a bit warmer than yesterday. The bad news for those who like cooler weather is that today will be the coolest day this forecast. Tonight, while the LLJ is forecast to be weaker than this morning`s, plenty of debris cloud is anticipated, and this will inhibit radiational cooling, keeping lows unseasonably warm at 8-10 F above normal. Thursday, thicknesses increase further, signaling what looks to be a long-fused heat wave as the western portion of the ridge begins building east, adding a couple of degrees to this afternoon`s highs, w/temperatures ~ 8-10 F above normal. Heat advisories look likely in a few areas, and will be issued by subsequent shifts. One last window for convection is possible, especially over the Davis Mountains and adjacent areas. Best chances look to remain west of the Pecos. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The last chance of rain hangs on into early Thursday evening from southeast New Mexico to the Davis Mountains along a weak surface trough. This activity quickly wanes after sunset with the loss of solar heating and effectively ends any hope of rain for the foreseeable future. The upper-level ridge is expected to gradually strengthen and expand back to the east, encompassing much of the southern Great Plains by this weekend and into the following week. The temperature trajectory remains on a slow but steady climb through the remainder of the forecast with this pattern in place. The upper 90s climb into the low 100s and the low 100s climb into the mid to even upper 100s as time progresses. This is expected to support a prolonged heat wave across a large portion of the region. The hottest temperatures look likely across the Big Bend and eastern Permian Basin at this time. These locations can expect temperatures surpassing the 105 F mark during the afternoon hours each day by next week. Similar excessive heat is expected elsewhere across the region as well. Hazardous heat products are likely going to be needed for a large portion of the area as the intensity and duration of the heat is only expected to slowly build. I wish I had better news to share but a hot and dry spell is on the horizon with no end in sight at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, afternoon, w/bases starting ~ 4.5-6 kft AGL. Convection is possible all terminals, but chances are too low for a mention attm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 102 78 103 77 / 10 10 10 10 Carlsbad 99 74 102 74 / 30 20 10 20 Dryden 100 75 101 75 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 100 75 101 74 / 30 20 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 90 70 93 72 / 40 20 20 20 Hobbs 98 72 100 72 / 30 30 10 20 Marfa 91 66 92 66 / 60 30 50 20 Midland Intl Airport 99 77 100 76 / 20 10 10 10 Odessa 99 78 100 77 / 20 10 10 10 Wink 101 78 103 77 / 20 20 10 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...44