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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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491 FXUS64 KMAF 122333 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 For tonight, lather, rinse, repeat. Conditions overnight will be similar to those of the past several nights, with light south to southeasterly flow and lows ranging from the mid 50s at higher elevations of the Guadalupes to the mid 70s along the Rio Grande. Saturday, however, looks to be something of a problem. Cluster analyses from the 12Z runs of the various models reveal that roughly 70% percent of the members going into the NBM show a tropical upper tropospheric trough, or TUTT, moving northwestward underneath the subtropical ridge toward the Big Bend/lower Trans Pecos Saturday afternoon. This feature can provide upper level support for thunderstorm activity, provided that there is sufficient moisture available. These ensemble members, dominated by the Euro and Canadian models, indicate that there will be sufficient moisture and instability to gin up scattered (< 30% coverage) over the Big Bend Saturday afternoon, with the attendant potential (probability around 30%) of locally heavy rainfall along with frequent lightning and wind gusts over 40 mph. The GFS ensembles, however, show no such thing and keep things dry down there. Present thinking is that the GFS is "windshield wiping" and probably does not have a good handle on the initialization of the TUTT over the northwestern Gulf. Unfortunately, we don`t have the granularity to define what specific areas will see locally heavy rainfall across the Big Bend Saturday afternoon/evening, but just that there is the possibility, again indicated by 70% of the model runs that comprise the NBM. Interests across this area, including those who are planning travel within Big Bend National Park and Big Bend Ranch State Park, are advised to keep an eye on the latest forecasts. Elsewhere, things will be quieter. High temperatures should be a shade (ha!) cooler than today`s highs, ranging from the mid 80s at higher elevations to near 100 at Rio Grande Village. Winds for the most part will be from the south to southeast at 10-15 mph, but locally higher gusts may occur down in the Big Bend region with storm outflows. Things across the Big Bend quiet down Saturday night. Elsewhere, things will remain quiet. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s at higher elevations of the Guadalupes to the lower 70s along the Rio Grande. Light south to winds will prevail, making for a pleasant evening. -bc && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The overall long-term forecast remains on track as discussed previously. The Four Corners upper-high remains steadfast with the Southeast upper-high weakening somewhat. This creates a weakness between the ridges across the southern Great Plains and an inverted trough is expected to develop towards the middle of next week. This pattern holds steady through the remainder of the week. The only questions that remain are two-fold. The first is whether an upper- low or slow-moving disturbance can track over the region, aiding in precipitation as discussed previously. The other question is the evolution of a northern CONUS trough. If the trough digs deep enough within the weakness between the ridges this may aide in a weak cold front moving across the area towards the end of the period. Regardless of this outcome, the general expectations remain mostly the same. Through the remainder of the weekend into the early week, highs remain near or slightly below normal with thunderstorms chances across the Big Bend and Davis Mountains. As the inverted trough takes shape, thunderstorm chances increase across the entire region. Daily afternoon thunderstorms continue to be possible each day through the end of the week. Temperatures hold steady, remaining near to slightly below normal. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Will see gusty southeasterly winds diminish after sunset, with CAVU conditions expected across area terminals this evening through around 13/18Z. Thereafter, expect an uptick in east to southeast winds to around 12 knots with a possibility (< 40% chance) of gusts to around 20 knots. Will also see a scattered deck of cumulus to around FL080-100 develop after 13/18Z as well. Isolated to scattered (< 30% chance) of convection will remain confined to the Big Bend and adjacent areas Saturday afternoon. -bc && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 71 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 70 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 71 91 72 91 / 0 20 20 30 Fort Stockton 70 94 71 94 / 0 10 10 30 Guadalupe Pass 66 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 67 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 88 61 86 / 10 60 20 60 Midland Intl Airport 71 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 71 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 71 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...70