613
FXUS64 KMAF 120752
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
252 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- A wetter and cooler weather pattern looks to set up this weekend
  lasting through much of next week. Isolated rainfall amounts in
  excess of an inch result in increased flash flooding concerns. A
  Flash Flood Watch is in effect.

- There will also be a marginal risk of isolated severe
  thunderstorms this weekend with strong winds the main threat.

- Drier and warmer conditions return for many late next week,
  though isolated rain chances hang around in our western
  portions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Current radar shows an MCS propagating southeast across the South
Plains this morning aided by an upper level disturbance. Various
models show the best chance for rain today will be associated with
this system as it moves into the northern and eastern Permian
Basin later this morning and early afternoon. Other showers and
thunderstorms will develop across the remainder of the area with
the Davis and Guadalupe mountains having the next best chance for
rainfall. Other areas will see more widely scattered activity.
Flash flooding will be the main threat...in urban areas in the
Permian Basin and creeks, draws, and arroyos in the mountains.
There is also a chance that some storms could become marginally
severe with strong winds the main threat and large hail a
secondary and smaller threat.

Rain chances continue tomorrow across the area as an upper level
shear axis remains near the area. The main forecast question is
where this area of instability ultimately is located. Latest model
runs have it a little farther east than previous model runs which
would also take rain chances to the east as well. The current
forecast is for highest PoPs in the eastern Permian Basin into the
Big Bend with decreasing rain chances farther west.

Temperatures both today and tomorrow will be below normal with
highs holding only to the 80s and lower 90s. Cloud cover,
scattered showers, outflow boundaries, and low heights aloft will
all contribute to keeping temperatures pleasant for this time of
year.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

High pressure centers to our west and east remain stationary in
the extended period keeping a weakness between the two situated
over the eastern New Mexico and West Texas. The presence of this
instability will keep rain chances in the forecast though lower
than what is expected in the short term. Much of the precipitation
will be driven by diurnal afternoon heating and outflow boundaries
from early convection. Models have difficulty forecasting such
features beyond 48 hours so confidence in the precipitation
forecast in the extended is lower and reflected in lower PoPs.
Temperatures throughout next week slowly rise as the eastern high
exerts a greater influence and pushes back into the CWA. Still,
highs will be generally at or below normal for this time of year
continuing a summer that has not been as brutally hot as other
recent summers.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions at most terminals through the period, though MAF is
forecast to drop to MVFR for a couple of hours this morning as low
clouds filter in from the east. A few models indicate a complex of
showers and thunderstorms will approach from the northwest later
this morning, potentially impacting HOB and MAF. As a result, went
ahead and included PROB30s for these sites. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop throughout the day at/near
most terminals, but for now confidence was a bit too low to include
further mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, breezy southeasterly winds
continue, becoming a bit more easterly later this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               90  69  86  69 /  30  40  50  40
Carlsbad                 91  68  87  68 /  50  40  30  30
Dryden                   95  72  87  72 /  20  30  40  30
Fort Stockton            95  69  88  69 /  50  40  60  30
Guadalupe Pass           85  64  82  64 /  40  30  40  30
Hobbs                    87  66  86  66 /  50  40  40  40
Marfa                    88  62  83  63 /  70  40  70  40
Midland Intl Airport     91  69  86  69 /  30  40  40  50
Odessa                   90  68  85  68 /  30  40  40  40
Wink                     92  69  87  68 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon through
     Sunday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-
     Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for Central
     Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13