201
FXUS64 KMAF 171911
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

 - A heat advisory continues over the northeastern Permian Basin
   through early this evening.

 - Another heat advisory for the same area for tomorrow will be
   issued later this evening.

Hot. And getting hotter. The subtropical ridge responsible for the
heat will not be going away anytime soon, and as such temperatures
will rise into the 100-105 degree range across the northeastern
Permian Basin and 105-115 across areas around the Rio Grande.
Overnight lows tonight and again Sunday night will fall into the
60s over the higher terrain to around 80 along the Rio Grande.
Winds will remain out of the south to southeast at around 5-15
mph, with some higher late morning and afternoon gusts. Skies will
be mostly clear with no appreciable chance of rain except for
maybe the Davis Mountains, were isolated (< 15 percent coverage)
thunderstorms are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Not much will change next week, except for perhaps some records.
The subtropical high will move little through the end of the week,
and the heat will only increase as thicknesses increase. The
cumulative effects of this heat cannot be overstated, and we
expect a continuation of Heat Advisories and quite possibly a
couple of Excessive Heat Warnings, especially over the
northeastern Basin and perhaps along the Rio Grande. Mostly clear
skies and dry conditions will prevail, with lows ranging from the
60s at higher elevations to around 80 along the Rio Grande and
highs around 90 at higher elevations to 105-115 degrees along both
the Rio Grande and across the northeastern Basin. Temperatures in
urban areas could also reach these levels, owing to radiative
feedback from pavement surfaces and buildings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

CAVU conditions are forecast across all area aerodromes through
18/18Z. Light winds, mainly out of the south to southeast, are
forecast. Will see some occasional gusty winds around 20 knots at
any terminal; confidence is highest at KHOB and KPEQ this
afternoon. Winds should die back some after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 103  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73 100  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74 100  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           69  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    72  99  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  93  65  93 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     76 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   77 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     77 102  76 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Howard-
     Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70