Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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934 FXUS64 KMAF 131056 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 556 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Drier air has helped temperatures cool a little more this morning with current conditions in the mid 70s. Better moisture lies just to our southeast with dewpoints in the 70s across the Edwards Plateau. This moisture will lift north on strengthening winds into the region by afternoon. Aloft, we are monitoring a weakness in the upper ridge over N. Mexico. Model agreement is not great regarding this feature and how it will affect our overall weather this afternoon. The ECMWF is most aggressive in generating isolated to scattered storms this afternoon across the southern half of the area. Nearly all other models are much drier keeping storms confined over the Big Bend and Davis Mountains. Will lean on the drier side given that lack of convection we saw Friday. There is plenty of moisture available in the Big Bend and locally heavy rain is likely with these storms. Flash flooding is possible, especially across low water crossings in the Big Bend. While much of us won`t see rain today, temperatures will cool slightly due to the increase in low level moisture. Highs will climb into the low the mid 90s for most, with 80s in the mountains. Very little changes Sunday with a continued shot at showers and storms in the same locations with highs back near normal. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Lows Sunday night will continue the trend of falling into the 60s and 70s under light winds, high clouds limiting radiational cooling, and dew point temperatures staying in the 60s, 50s westernmost regions. Highs Monday through Wednesday will feature mostly 90s, 80s in higher elevations, and triple digits along parts of the Pecos River and northeastern Permian Basin, with lows in the 60s and 70s continuing. Not much changes in the last few forecast runs. An upper-high will persist over the Four Corners while the upper-high over the Southeast will weaken somewhat, allowing an inverted trough to develop over the area by midweek. It remains to be seen whether an upper low will develop near the area or a slow moving disturbance can track over the region, either of which will increase rain chances through providing increasing lift and moisture. It is also uncertain whether the trough over the northern CONUS will dig deep enough in the weaknesses between the ridges. If this can happen, a weak cold front might be able to pass south into our area during the end of next week. Whatever the evolution of the upper air pattern ends up being, cooler high temperatures near to below normal and increased rain chances are expected, in addition to the usual chances of storms from heating of elevated western terrain. As the inverted trough persists over the area, thunderstorm chances will increase everywhere. By Friday, highs may begin to warm back into the 90s for most, with 80s in higher elevations of Guadalupes into the Marfa Plateau and lower Trans Pecos, and triple digits again showing up near the Rio Grande. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 VFR with increasing southeast winds. Any storms this afternoon should stay south of the terminals although outflow could reach KFST or KPEQ. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 97 72 98 73 / 10 0 10 0 Carlsbad 95 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 91 73 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 Fort Stockton 94 71 95 72 / 20 10 30 10 Guadalupe Pass 86 66 88 67 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 94 67 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 87 62 86 62 / 40 30 60 10 Midland Intl Airport 93 71 95 73 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 93 72 95 73 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 96 72 98 74 / 0 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...29